If there actually is talk of regime change going on between the Americans and other NATO members, I think that poses the highest risk for China to become more involved in supplying Russia. China wants this all resolved and a return to peace asap, but if there is any prospect of the US getting involved in Russian regime change it will be seen as a substantial security threat to China. No way China wants the US involved in deciding who governs Russia or Russian resources.
Hopefully it does not go that way, because that is a potential path to something awful.
Former Chinese colonel spoke to this, among other things, at Munich a few days ago in this interview. He provides a pretty detailed perspective from China, which we don't get in our western media and certainly never for this long.
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These speeches are scary. If you were on a deserted island and returned today to hear Putin and Biden you could easily conclude we are on the eve of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO.
Former Chinese colonel spoke to this, among other things, at Munich a few days ago in this interview. He provides a pretty detailed perspective from China, which we don't get in our western media and certainly never for this long.
This is an excellent interview.
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Damn right. Aim that thing straight for my big ####ing forehead. Have no interest in dying slowly in severe pain while growing a third arm
I was all for dying, until I heard about this third arm deal.
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So Putin apparently wanted a big intercontinental ballistic missile (Satan II, typically nuclear tipped silo launched ICBM) launch demonstration, ala. North Korea style, to mark the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, scare the world while Biden was in Ukraine, and announce the Russia's withdraw from the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty. Fortunately, the ICBM launch failed. One has to suspect Russia's nuclear arms aren't in a great state given what we've seen of their military, sadly it only takes a few and they have thousands.
Quote:
Russia conducted the test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on Monday when US president Joe Biden arrived in Ukraine, according to a report. However, the launch failed.
The missile test involved a heavy Sarmat missile – known as Satan II in the West – capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads across the continent, two US officials familiar with the matter told CNN.
But the missile, which has been successfully tested before, appeared to have failed this time, officials said, as Russian president Vladimir Putin would have mentioned it in his State of the Nation address on Tuesday had the launch been a success.
The Kremlin notified the US in advance of the launch through deconfliction lines, an official said, according to the report.
It was not immediately clear when the warning was given by Russian officials. However, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that the Russian side was notified about Mr Biden’s visit to Kyiv just hours before on Sunday night.
The missile tests did not pose a risk or threat to the US and Washington did not view it as an anomaly or an escalation, another official said.
The timing of the missile test was not immediately clear, but officials noted that it occurred before Mr Biden’s visit to Kyiv on Monday.
Yup. I don't think I've ever seen someone from the Chinese government give such a lengthy and thorough interview before to a western media outlet. The interviewer was good too and asked good questions which is why he got thoughtful responses. The Chinese official had good English too!
These speeches are scary. If you were on a deserted island and returned today to hear Putin and Biden you could easily conclude we are on the eve of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO.
While I get it, it's good to remember that Russians have been threatening their every western neighbour with nuclear escalation since day 1 of the war, and it's all a load of s***. It's just scare tactics and means literally nothing at all one way or the other.
Fear of nuclear war is the only reason why there is still Russian military outside their own borders, otherwise they would have been annihilated. They're desperate and they want to sound desperate, but there's no indication that Putin is actually insane.
Or let's say, he's not self-destructive. He's a merciless psychopath with no consideration for human life, but he's also extremely focused on his own survival and his legacy.
Yup. I don't think I've ever seen someone from the Chinese government give such a lengthy and thorough interview before to a western media outlet. The interviewer was good too and asked good questions which is why he got thoughtful responses. The Chinese official had good English too!
Unfortunately, the cartoonish ideological framing of 'battle of democracy vs. autocracy' doesn't allow a lot of space for understanding that other countries have their own complex interests and relations that aren't part of that.
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While I get it, it's good to remember that Russians have been threatening their every western neighbour with nuclear escalation since day 1 of the war, and it's all a load of s***. It's just scare tactics and means literally nothing at all one way or the other.
Fear of nuclear war is the only reason why there is still Russian military outside their own borders, otherwise they would have been annihilated. They're desperate and they want to sound desperate, but there's no indication that Putin is actually insane.
Or let's say, he's not self-destructive. He's a merciless psychopath with no consideration for human life, but he's also extremely focused on his own survival and his legacy.
Yup, nothing really scary about Putin speeches at all. Just the ramblings of the Orc manager while those in the audience nod off. You can count on 2 things when russian politicians open their lips: lies will spill out and threats of some kind will be made. Nuke threats are all they have left, and big yawn to that.
Ukraine just needs to keep taking out the trash, the west keeping russia isolated, and NATO eventually surrounding Russia to contain it.
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Unfortunately, the cartoonish ideological framing of 'battle of democracy vs. autocracy' doesn't allow a lot of space for understanding that other countries have their own complex interests and relations that aren't part of that.
It seems in that interview that China's position is they have their own interests, and it's not on them to stand up to other countries if they are being awful. I think that's a pretty naive way to look at internalization politics. If you are enabling a country to do horrible things, you are complicit. Taking a stand may mean sacrificing future relationships with Russia, which may be a negative for China, but it isn't an excuse not to do it. This is exactly how Germany ended up where they are. China should see that as a lesson, not a blueprint.
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That colonel was a fantastic interview. He's not some fanatical communist maniac, he's very measured in his responses. He says that Russia is their biggest neighbor, they need to be careful.
But he did make it clear that China is against war, and peace is in China's interest.
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I thought the colonel interview was interesting, but he really ducked the part about Ukraine and countries in general being able to decide for themselves who they want to align with. No country has joined NATO under duress, and he seems to be pushing the idea that a country's sovereignty is sacred, but that they shouldn't be able to make sovereign decisions without triggering and unleashing a "murderous" Russia. A country is either sovereign or it isn't. It can't be a case where a country is 100% sovereign, yet it has to be forced to align with Russia for the sake of not upsetting their authoritarian neighbours. His point seems to be that there needs to be a power balance to keep Russia peaceful and that NATO should have just forsaken Ukraine in order to keep Russia relevant, but people are not livestock to be traded off just to keep dictators happy.
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I thought the colonel interview was interesting, but he really ducked the part about Ukraine and countries in general being able to decide for themselves who they want to align with. No country has joined NATO under duress, and he seems to be pushing the idea that a country's sovereignty is sacred, but that they shouldn't be able to make sovereign decisions without triggering and unleashing a "murderous" Russia. A country is either sovereign or it isn't. It can't be a case where a country is 100% sovereign, yet it has to be forced to align with Russia for the sake of not upsetting their authoritarian neighbours. His point seems to be that there needs to be a power balance to keep Russia peaceful and that NATO should have just forsaken Ukraine in order to keep Russia relevant, but people are not livestock to be traded off just to keep dictators happy.
This is the crux of it, do we still believe in spheres of influence? Particularly for has-been powers that through their own corruption and poor governance are middle tier players now apart from their legacy nuclear stockpile.
Russia is a middling economic power, their GDP is similar to Canada and Spain with many more people. Why do they get a sphere of influence and why must people bend the knee for their delusional empire building?
It seems in that interview that China's position is they have their own interests, and it's not on them to stand up to other countries if they are being awful. I think that's a pretty naive way to look at internalization politics. If you are enabling a country to do horrible things, you are complicit. Taking a stand may mean sacrificing future relationships with Russia, which may be a negative for China, but it isn't an excuse not to do it. This is exactly how Germany ended up where they are. China should see that as a lesson, not a blueprint.
But that's basically standard operating procedure for powerful countries. Look at the things that various US and NATO allies get away with because the west benefits from them. How much push back is Azerbaijan getting for its treatment of Armenia? Basically none, because the EU relies on Azerbaijan for energy. Or all the abuses that oil-rich Middle Eastern nations have inflicted on people and other nations? We just keep sending them more weapons and money.
There has been rumblings about Russia moving into Moldova in recent days, particularly to occupy their airport. They revoked a territorial decree on sovereignty, and have been irked by Moldova's pro-Western Prime Minister.
As Russia gets more belligerent, no doubt proxy states are getting concerned.
Russia maintains around 1,100 troops at a Soviet-era weapons depot in a largely Russian-speaking sliver of Moldova, Transdniester.
Sandu has repeatedly called for Russia to withdraw the troops, and Recean repeated those calls earlier this month.
In response, the Kremlin urged Moldova to exercise caution in its statements about the Russian forces.
Moldova shares a border of about 1,200 kilometers with Ukraine.
Sandu suggested last week alongside blunt accusations by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that there was a Russian plan to organize a coup in Moldova, masked by opposition protests in the capital, Chisinau.
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