You Know What Really Grinds My Gears? Now with 3x more gears...

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

Here’s a nicely well written, and somewhat opinionated, view on the GIC:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/09/1...ally-safe/amp/

Years ago I had some friends that eventually dumped a lot of $$ into GICs and were all smug about it. I offered to pay them a slightly higher guaranteed rate but get to keep the difference. I think they took out about a 5yr term at maybe 3-4%. Back then without much risk I was getting close to 10% pa. Of course at that age I didn’t have much capital so 10% of not much still isn’t much. These days they figure they’ll retire closer to 70, despite one being a well paid O&G engineer that’s always made good bonuses.. We don’t talk personal finances anymore.

Clearly GICs were a suboptimal place to be for a long time, but I do think right now they make more sense if you're on the defensive side. Despite all the soft landing talk, many indicators still point to a recession looming.

From the article:

Investors will miss the big market gains when Putin is defeated or CB interest rates stop rising.

Everyone is waiting for the magical pivot, but one thing to keep in mind is that typically the FED doesn't drop rates unless there is some economic gloom or event to justify it. My opinion is they'll probably hold till something big breaks or the market has a sizeable correction. So yes, there will probably be a market rally once they start lowering, but chances are decent that it will be after the market has gone through a sizeable correction. We'll get that rally, but will it be after a 20-30% drop? If you think so, waiting it out on the sidelines getting 5% is perhaps not a bad strategy.

Personally, I'm holding most of my cash in CASH, BIL, and SGOV treasury bill ETFs. You get almost the same rate as a GIC, but you're not locked in...so if there is a market opportunity, you can act quickly.

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Clearly GICs were a suboptimal place to be for a long time, but I do think right now they make more sense if you're on the defensive side. Despite all the soft landing talk, many indicators still point to a recession looming.

From the article:


Everyone is waiting for the magical pivot, but one thing to keep in mind is that typically the FED doesn't drop rates unless there is some economic gloom or event to justify it. My opinion is they'll probably hold till something big breaks or the market has a sizeable correction. So yes, there will probably be a market rally once they start lowering, but chances are decent that it will be after the market has gone through a sizeable correction. We'll get that rally, but will it be after a 20-30% drop? If you think so, waiting it out on the sidelines getting 5% is perhaps not a bad strategy.

Personally, I'm holding most of my cash in CASH, BIL, and SGOV treasury bill ETFs. You get almost the same rate as a GIC, but you're not locked in...so if there is a market opportunity, you can act quickly.

The GIC article is interesting in that it was written 11 months ago. The markets then went on a very significant romp. True they’ve pulled back (as usual for July-Sept, and that’s a historic fact). Being all cash may be viewed as defensive for sure. If it’s true cash you’ve lost the equivalent of inflation/CPI. If in money market you’ve managed to tread water, which you’ve done. I sat on the sidelines a few of the large corrections the last 30 years. As a result I arguably consistently missed the best gain days which typically occur during down markets, not near markets. Probably hurt my present day portfolio by at least 25%. Dagnabbit. Overall this speaks to why a balanced investment strategy with 9-18mo reallocations works well… easier said than done.

Anyways here’s another great website that has 1-2 min reads most days. Highly recommended for all levels.
https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/...r-always-wins/

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by Locke

A Cat will sort that out in no time.

yeah, but then you need to get a dog to get rid of the cat and coyote to get rid of the dog and then a cougar to get rid of the coyote...

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by monkeyman

yeah, but then you need to get a dog to get rid of the cat and coyote to get rid of the dog and then a cougar to get rid of the coyote...

Human cougar?
Or feline?

Cos it matters.

[Strange Brew]

Timing the market is a fool’s errand IMO. A three year GIC gives you no flexibility and really only makes sense if know that you need to spend the money in 3 years.

Hell put it in a money market which gives the same return as a GIC and move a little into equities every month.

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

Human cougar?
Or feline?

Cos it matters.

Whichever one do you think would be easier to get rid of once the coyote is gone, which might involve a bear.
I just realized that could also be open to interpretation... again, dealers choice.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by fotze2

I can't stand Trudeau and I am sick of the anti-trudeau stuff. I can talk about butterscotch pudding and somehow Trudeau is shoehorned in. Ah jeez, not this crap again.

As an aside when did butterscotch become less popular
It's really been market corrected by salted caramel.

Probably Trudeau's fault.

I love me some butterscotch.

[8 Ball]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

As an aside when did butterscotch become less popular
It's really been market corrected by salted caramel.

Probably Trudeau's fault.

I love me some butterscotch.

Interesting. I remember as a kid my mom would make that packaged butterscotch pudding with the weird skin that formed on top, we would sprinkle sugar on it.

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

As an aside when did butterscotch become less popular
It's really been market corrected by salted caramel.

Probably Trudeau's fault.

I love me some butterscotch.

That's discriminatory toward margarin or butter that doesn't identify as butter. It should be called non-binary spread scotch.

[GirlySports]

Right-sided gas tanks should be outlawed, it just messes thongs up at the gas station.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Right-sided gas tanks should be outlawed, it just messes thongs up at the gas station.

People who don't know what side their tank is on, and don't know how to back up to a gas pump, should be outlawed.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by 8 Ball

Maybe buy a cutting board...

Even better, get a grater that grates into a container...



https://www.ikea.com/ca/en/p/uppfyll...lors-90529389/

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Ped

People who don't know what side their tank is on, and don't know how to back up to a gas pump, should be outlawed.

I don't like backing up to a gas pump, I might box the middle car in.

[MoneyGuy]

I know what side my gas tank is on. I choose the side with the shorter line and DGAF if anyone objects.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Right-sided gas tanks should be outlawed, it just messes thongs up at the gas station.

There’s a bit to unpack here. Is there another type of “thong” I should be thinking about?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Ped

People who don't know what side their tank is on, and don't know how to back up to a gas pump, should be outlawed.

Really you need the balance of having either side. Can you imagine the chaos of having each vehicle with the same side?

By the way, what happened with the style of the gas cap being under the license plate? I had 2 70s era vehicles where it was hidden under the license plate. Perfect location. At least gas station-wise. Maybe the cars blew up though.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I don't like backing up to a gas pump, I might box the middle car in.

You line up when there are empty pumps available!?!? Ahhhhhhh!

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

You line up when there are empty pumps available!?!? Ahhhhhhh!

I may have seen her at a Costco recently. There was an empty pump and I was casually pointing to it while I was getting gas from the other side, thinking the person in line didn’t see it was open, but they just waited until the gas attendant finally walked over and told them to go.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Really you need the balance of having either side. Can you imagine the chaos of having each vehicle with the same side?

By the way, what happened with the style of the gas cap being under the license plate? I had 2 70s era vehicles where it was hidden under the license plate. Perfect location. At least gas station-wise. Maybe the cars blew up though.

Ford Pinto demonstrated having a gas tank that far back was a bad idea. Probably wouldn't work with most vehicles these days having the spare where the filler would go.


I worked full serve gas, and I hated those things. Getting the nozzle at the right angle to stay in and not click off every 3 seconds was frustrating on many of them. Good riddance!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

You line up when there are empty pumps available!?!? Ahhhhhhh!

Originally Posted by Wormius

I may have seen her at a Costco recently. There was an empty pump and I was casually pointing to it while I was getting gas from the other side, thinking the person in line didn’t see it was open, but they just waited until the gas attendant finally walked over and told them to go.

I don't but sometimes the gas stations are really small and cars these days are bigger and wider. If I back in to take the front pump with two guys behind, the middle guy will get boxed in and can't leave.