Maybe, but progression isn’t linear. There’s no guarantee he’d eclipse 130 points. He could have even regressed this year.
That's the thing: some players reach their ceiling a lot faster than others. Remember Griffin Reinhart? Looked terrific in his draft year, went fourth overall, then… nothing. He never improved after that, and his game never translated to the NHL at all.
I am NOT saying this will happen to McKenna, of course. But if he has hit a bit of a wall in his development, it's only natural that he'll slide from #1 overall.
Fortunately, none of us are required to have an opinion at this point in the season. Not even the scouts have to do that; they get to watch how he finishes out the year before making up their minds. The only people who have to have an opinion are the guys making up draft rankings during the season to get clicks.
We'll see how the rest of McKenna's year goes. I think it's fair to say he needs to show improvement over his last couple of months if he's going to go 1OA.
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Griffin Reinhart had bad stats during his draft year. They projected upside that just wasn't there based on the on-ice results.
But your point stands. You never know. The prior Islanders pick, Michael Dal Colle, had 95 points in 67 OHL games, was big, and great in the playoffs.
But like you said, some players just reach their ceilings very early. So there's always a risk of this happening.
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Supposing McKenna doesn’t impress at the world juniors and continues at his current pace in NCAA, how far down could he drop in the draft? Hard to imagine him not in the top 10 considering this has been hailed as the McKenna draft for what seems like 3 years.
I think he will turn things around and solidify his draft ranking in the top 4 betwen now and the draft… but it would be interesting to see how much teams are willing to overlook a mediocre first season in NCAA (if it continues) based on what he has done up to this point and how much raw offensive talent he has.
It's starting to remind me of the Shane Wright draft / situation.
Player universally thought to be a blue chipper for multiple pre draft seasons starts to show warts in draft eligible year and falls down the rankings and ultimately draft.
Early on Wright was thought to be the consensus #1 pick in a very weak draft, nothing more.
More thoughts on Central Scouting's Preliminary Rankings:
-Most of what "C"-rated RW Lucian Bernat generates comes from his tunnel-vision to the net, and his high-volume shooting. Bernat is huge, measuring 6'4",and 194lbs, and he uses his frame well in a power-forward role, muscling his way to the net for in-close chances, or setting up shop in-front to get his stick on tips and rebounds; he has soft hands to beat goalies, and an impressive shot. He works hard defensively and exerts his enormous range to dislodge pucks, and displays a strong game along the boards- but there is work to do in the skating department. The big Slovak plays in Finland's U20 league, and has been catching fire recently, with 9 points in his last 7 games (19 points in 25 games overall)- after a notable performance in November's 5 Nations, where he showed physical dominance, and produced 3 points in 3 games. Bernat was a little less noticeable in the Hlinka, although he did manage to place 2nd in scoring on Team Slovakia, with 3 points in 4 games- while leading the tournament in PP ice-time, with almost 7 minutes per game. Bernat might be a bit of a long-term project, but he's also quite young, with a June 8th birthday.
-LHC Rudolfs Berzkalns will get attention from scouts on draft day, but perhaps not because of his scoring prowess- only 16 points in 25 games to date with the first-place Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL. He did, however, have 8 points in 10 games in November, and has been helped along a bit by the return of Tynan Lawrence to the lineup. Berzkalns is a big (6'3.5",205lbs) center, who are always in demand, and though his stats look mediocre, scouts insist there is plenty of untapped offensive skill in his toolkit; indeed, he does flash some dynamic elements at times. Right now, he brings physical dominance with a bit of a mean streak (35 PIM), and a solid power-forward game that makes him a commanding presence along the boards and around the net, but his best attribute right now is his defensive impact. He backchecks as hard as he forechecks, making stops with his awareness, disrupting plays with an active stick, and separating man from puck with his physicality. There's work to be done on his start-up, but he's a runaway train when moving at top-speed, and shows decent skill. Despite not impressing much with his numbers, I really like this kid.
-RHC Tomas Chrenko (5'11",170lbs) was given a "C" by Central Scouting, but he seems destined to be a first-round pick, and perhaps a future star in the NHL. Chrenko was too good for Slovakia's U20 league (10 points in 4 games), so he has been plying his trade in the men's pro league with HK Nitra, where he leads all U-20 players with 16 points in 25 games (2 more than Adam Nemec). In fact, Chrenko's ppg of 0.64 is 16th-best all-time in Slovakia's top league in a season for players 18-and-under with 2 or more games. Chrenko showed very well in May's U-18 Tournament as well, tying for the team lead on Slovakia's entry, with 5 goals and 8 points in 7 games. His 69 points in 45 games in Slovakia's U20 in the 2024-25 season is 13th-most all-time, and the records go on and on. Chrenko is not big, but he's not at all afraid of competing in all of the greasy areas of the ice, including the corners and in front of the net. He is also more quick than outright fast, but his hockey sense, IQ, and positioning are all elite, both with-and-without possession. He's dynamically skilled with the puck, an accurate passer, a massive contributor to transition, and a top-notch play-driver- but also reliable in his own end. Chrenko has a deceptive release, and goes to the net to finish with his smooth hands in-tight, but he's also a creative playmaker.
-After posting a mere 6 points in his first 17 games this season in Finland's U20, while playing mostly third-line minutes for the Pelicans, "C"-rated LW Luka Arkko (6'3",212lbs) has caught fire after a decent showing in November's 5 Nations (3 points in 4 games), putting up 8 points in 7 games (all wins for his team)- for 14 points (7 goals) in 24 games. Arkko's area of specialty is goal-scoring, and he displays the instincts to find open space in the offensive zone to unleash his deadly shot, but also has no fear in attacking the net, or planting himself in front of the crease for opportunities. He is a big-bodied power-forward who wins battles along the boards, and is known for his energy, motor, and aggressive puck-pursuit. Arkko is a splendid defensive forward who is always in his opponents' faces, taking away time and space- a trait he displayed in spades at the Hlinka, where he was Finland's second-leading goal-scorer with 3 tallies (2 against Czechia, 1 against Sweden). His puck-skills are above-average, but his skating is in need of further refinement.
-LD Callum Croskery (6'0.5",185lbs) suffered a fractured wrist in the Soo Greyhounds' training camp that cost him the first few months of the season, which is a big shame as he is highly thought of by scouts. He returned in late-November, and has since put up 1 assist and a +6 in 5 games for the 7th-place 'Hounds. When healthy, he is blessed with a little bit of everything- he's an excellent skater, sees the ice very well, moves the puck quickly through transition, and makes smart plays under pressure. He is able to elude checks in retrievals, and kickstarts the breakout with a smooth first-pass. In his own-zone, Croskery is a stalwart; aided by his fluid four-directional skating, he is effective against the rush, and disrupts play with his solid positioning, awareness, and a well-timed stick. Croskery also contributes in the offensive zone, and knows when to join the attack; he runs the play from the line with intelligence, and has a hard, accurate shot.
-"C"-rated Czech RW Jakub Frolo (6'1",194lbs) is a player I like, and with 7 points in the last 5 games (although it appears he was ejected last game after only 2:18 TOI), he is now up to 3 goals and 22 points in 22 games for Ilves of the U20 in Finland- he is tied for 19th-overall in points, and 5th in assists. Frolo plays the kind of physical, rambunctious style (79 PIM) that drives opponents nuts, and keeps them off-balance- he is mean and edgy, and always in pursuit of the puck, which keeps him in close contact with his enemies, and in their faces. In addition to being hard-working, energetic, and competitive, Frolo displays vision and creativity with the puck in his high-end playmaking game, along with soft-touch in his passing, and above-average puck-skill. Though he isn't a burner by any means, he skates well enough to contribute meaningfully to transition, and shows good maneuverability on his edges. Frolo is also a responsible defensive player with good anticipation and awareness, who is as heavy on the backcheck as he is on the forecheck, and will lay out attackers; he might have a good floor as an NHL bottom-six player.
-RHC Beckett Hamilton has been held off the scoresheet in his last 2 games (and -4) with Red Deer, but before that, he went on a run of 15 points in his previous 10 games, to give him 26 points (10 goals) in 27 games to lead the Rebels in scoring; impressive, considering that they are 19th out of 23 teams, and own the third-worst goals-for. He isn't the biggest player on the ice (5'11",172lbs), and perhaps not elite in any one area, but he is quite well rounded, and an excellent all-around player who can play in any situation, and both special teams. He is an excellent skater and handler, which makes him important to his team's transition, and is a reliable and detailed defensive performer who works hard, and doesn't shy away from the physical game. Offensively, he owns top-notch hockey sense and awareness, and knows where to be at all times, with solid playmaking vision, and decent finishing skills. He also has a good shot, with a goal-scorer's ability to sniff out open space in the offensive zone, and a willingness to cut to the middle and go to the net. Going forward, he needs to bulk up and get stronger.
-The Wenatchee Wild are 21st in the 23-team WHL, and are the lowest-scoring team in the circuit. I feel like "C"-rated RHC Caelan Joudrey (6'4.25",194lbs) would be a much more enticing draft-pick if he were on a different team- at least on the level of 2025 2nd-rounder Matthew Gard, who is a hard-hitting defensive specialist. Joudrey is cut from a similar cloth, although I believe he's a better skater than Gard, with excellent defensive awareness, intimidating physicality with an edge, and high all-around hockey sense- he contributes to both the PK, and the PP for the Wild. He's not devoid of skill or smarts at all, owning good handling skill and passing ability, with a high work-ethic, robust physicality, and a mean edge. To date, he has posted a rather paltry 5 goals and 8 points in 27 games while playing middle-six on a poor team, which prorates to 13 goals and 21 points in 68 games (60 PIM).
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Supposing McKenna doesn’t impress at the world juniors and continues at his current pace in NCAA, how far down could he drop in the draft? Hard to imagine him not in the top 10 considering this has been hailed as the McKenna draft for what seems like 3 years.
I think he will turn things around and solidify his draft ranking in the top 4 betwen now and the draft… but it would be interesting to see how much teams are willing to overlook a mediocre first season in NCAA (if it continues) based on what he has done up to this point and how much raw offensive talent he has.
He still has game breaking talent, and he's still having a very good NCAA rookie season. He's just not putting up the videogame numbers that he was doing in junior, which is creating the discussion around whether he's still locked in at number 1.
He's not falling outside the top 5, and probably the top 3, unless he takes a step back from his current pace.
I was doing a little thinking about scouting/ draft position, so I looked back at the top five picks between 2013-2023 to get a sense of how often top 5 picks a "busts".
3rd Jonathan Drouin **
4th Sam Bennett **
5th Michael Dal Colle
4th puljujarvi
5th Juolevi
2nd Nolan Patrick
5th Barrett Hayton*
3rd Kirby Dach*
5th Alex Turcotte
4th Shane Wright*
5th David Reinbacher***
* under performers but still NHLs
** good players but not super stars
*** still too early to say for sure
In the end 11 out 50 picks in the top 5 wind up under performing in some capacity. That said, 5 out 50 are true busts.
With that in mind there is a 10% chance when you pick in the top 5 you'll leave with nothing, but you will notice that most of this is clustered in the 4th and 5th picks.
In the top three you have a 3 /30 chance of picking a player who under performs, and you have only a 1/30 chance of picking a "bust"
I'm biased, but if Reinbacher can stay somewhat healthy, there's zero chance he busts IMO. Injuries have unfortunately slowed him down a bit, but the kid has all the tools to be really good.
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I'm biased, but if Reinbacher can stay somewhat healthy, there's zero chance he busts IMO. Injuries have unfortunately slowed him down a bit, but the kid has all the tools to be really good.
I'm biased, but if Reinbacher can stay somewhat healthy, there's zero chance he busts IMO. Injuries have unfortunately slowed him down a bit, but the kid has all the tools to be really good.
It's not a perfect list, Drouin and Bennett shouldn't count either both players have been excellent in their given roles, just not on the same level are true star players. It wouldn't bother me at all if the Flames drafted players of their caliber in 2026.
I was doing a little thinking about scouting/ draft position, so I looked back at the top five picks between 2013-2023 to get a sense of how often top 5 picks a "busts".
3rd Jonathan Drouin **
4th Sam Bennett **
5th Michael Dal Colle
4th puljujarvi
5th Juolevi
2nd Nolan Patrick
5th Barrett Hayton*
3rd Kirby Dach*
5th Alex Turcotte
4th Shane Wright*
5th David Reinbacher***
* under performers but still NHLs
** good players but not super stars
*** still too early to say for sure
In the end 11 out 50 picks in the top 5 wind up under performing in some capacity. That said, 5 out 50 are true busts.
With that in mind there is a 10% chance when you pick in the top 5 you'll leave with nothing, but you will notice that most of this is clustered in the 4th and 5th picks.
In the top three you have a 3 /30 chance of picking a player who under performs, and you have only a 1/30 chance of picking a "bust"
There's a whole lot more "good but not superstar" players in the top 5 picks over that span. I think you have to consider adding Beniers, Power, Mactavish, Luke Hughes, Lafreniere, Byfield, Kaako, Byram, Dubois.
It's not a perfect list, Drouin and Bennett shouldn't count either both players have been excellent in their given roles, just not on the same level are true star players. It wouldn't bother me at all if the Flames drafted players of their caliber in 2026.
You missed Kakko, Lafreniere, and Slafkovsky IMO. Bennett is better than any of them.
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There's a whole lot more "good but not superstar" players in the top 5 picks over that span. I think you have to consider adding Beniers, Power, Mactavish, Luke Hughes, Lafreniere, Byfield, Kaako, Byram, Dubois.
IMO if you get a "good but not superstar" anywhere after pick 2, I think you're okay with it. If you're picking first/second overall, I think you're at least expecting a star player.
IMO if you get a "good but not superstar" anywhere after pick 2, I think you're okay with it. If you're picking first/second overall, I think you're at least expecting a star player.
It would be tough for the Flames to pick 3-5 and end up with an good not great player. Although I guess Monahan and Bennett both fit that mold, but I think it really hurt that iteration. If one of those guys was a true star, we would of been a serious contender.
Even with someone like Parehk, who was picked 9th oa, the expectations are crazy high. I think this is made worse, because historically we haven't picked high often, so we expect more when it does happen.
