CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[devo22]

Originally Posted by SebC

That said, I feel this is good information, so I guess I've generated something positive, even if I screwed up my initial logic.

it's definitely positive. Beside the information of what happens to the spore in that specific case, we pretty much have a second confirmed townie now. Given your posting style that's not surprising, but it's good to have confirmation.

2 of my top 4 are Peanut and ECF.

For now: Vote: East Coast Flame

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Puxlut: Anomaly, town member

SebC: Agree with XXX, coming out with the "we might end this today" post... too risky (and random/out of left field) to be coming from scum
...

It's more than reasonable you forgot to go back and change this while making a long post.

But I remember writing posts like this with fill-in-the-blanks as necessary when I was mafia last game...

[Hockeyguy15]

With Seb is the best scum in the world or Mazrim is going to kick himself for his comment. At least for one day we have 2 confirmed town now.

[Hockeyguy15]

With = either.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

bizaro86: In my mind, post 567 went a LONG way to convincing me he's a town member. I especially value this part, and wished we listened...

Here's the entirety of post 567 actually, because it had the opposite effect for me.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

So I went through the spore/oling/girly thing in my head, and have a few thoughts.

Oling admitted to getting the spore night 1. That leaves two possibilities:
1) Oling is a host
-That implies that someone else was turned night 1 and kept quiet.
-Oling having the plan in advance where he is the key player in the plan does seem awfully suspicious, by declaring it "before he knew" he had the spore, it seems more credible. But that is exactly what a scum oling would do if this was a plan to control the flow of the game.
-In the past when oling was scum he was able to control the game and lead the town down irrelevant paths, which would be consistent with this theory.

2) Oling really got the spore and didn't turn
-He did send it to girly
-He has terrible luck having explained his plan in advance
-He thinks girly is the most likely person to be a host. Sending it to the most likely host is the best way to prevent extra people getting turned, plus if you lynch them you get a double whammy - kill a host plus stop the spore for a day.

If we think 1) is more likely, we should lynch oling.

If we think 2) is more likely, then it's 50/50 that girly turned if she's not a host. If she turned or is host, we should probably lynch her and stop the spore, plus reduce their numbers. If she didn't turn, we may want to keep the spore under our control, and lynch the person we think is most likely a host. So far the best argument for someone else being host is by Legoman that Timbo is a host.

I think the best course of action may be the following:
-Assume girly hasn't turned, so lynch someone else, my suggestion is Timbo.
-Then, have the government agent investigate girly. That way if she has turned, she dies anyway, so no downside to assuming otherwise and lynching someone else.
-Have girly send the spore back to oling. That way, if oling is a host we get the benefit of nobody getting turned that night.

This plan has at least some benefit under all the scenarios that are plausible, except possibly girly being host, which I think is the least likely scenario.

I think this is what we should do. Timbo has changed his posting style, and his vote for activestick was not well supported, it felt more like a pile-on from scum to make sure a townie got lynched.

Vote:Timbo

It's counter intuitive. He says if I'm host that means GirlySports wasn't sent the spore, but then goes on to say that if GirlySports isn't lynched she should send the spore to me in case I'm host. Other than me being opposed to playing hot sporetato, he already said if I was host that GirlySports didn't have the spore and someone else was turned on night 1. Following his logic at the beginning of the post, instead of saying that GirlySports should send the spore to me, it would have been more appropriate to say that GirlySports could confirm/deny having the spore.

Him trying to get GirlySports to send the spore to me....well I already know that the host tried to send it to me once.

[SebC]

Given that I now have a bit of a pedestal today, I'll try to come up with some stuff that I think is safe to share.

In the meantime, I'll reiterate my position that I think that keeping the mafia in the dark as to who the lynch targets might be creates a town advantage. Uncertainty followed by a short window to react will produce more pressure than votes (particularly if the votes are misplaced).

[SebC]

I guess I can say that for today, I consider Oling to be just about as much town as myself and Puxlut.

I'm also going to repeat this... "Does anyone want to come clean about things they've changed from previous CP mafia game(s), and why?"

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by SebC

I guess I can say that for today, I consider Oling to be just about as much town as myself and Puxlut.

I'm also going to repeat this... "Does anyone want to come clean about things they've changed from previous CP mafia game(s), and why?"

My underwear
My aggression,last two times it got me killed however Drury18 saved my rear end.
My hairs a bit longer and I've gained some weight but I'm working on losing it.

[Peanut]

Interesting catch on LegoMan's post, Oling. For me that actually alleviates some of my lingering suspicions from the spore reveal. If you were scum, you wouldn't point out a "scummy" error of a fellow scum. Although that could have been an innocent error by LegoMan, it was kind of suspicious.

I've been reflecting on my top scum suspects. I'm having trouble differentiating between strong players who are just strong town players vs. strong players who are scum trying to steer the game. I'm sure that at least one strong player must be scum and trying to influence the game. The "strong" players in my mind are Oling, Bizaro, HG15, GGG, and Timbo. Given Oling pointing out the error by LegoMan, and the results of the Girly card flip and considering the government agent presumably investigated and didn't kill him, I think he's low probability scum, and definitely not turned. HG's definitely influencing the group. His posting style rubs me the wrong way, but I appreciate that he shared some of my Oling suspicions, and shared his logic about the spore surfacing tonight would confirm that Oling lied because Girly obviously did not have the spore yesterday, so that convinces me he's low probability scum as well. Timbo, GGG and Bizaro are all fairly benign, although it seems GGG's posting has died down a bit this game day. Maybe just busy. I think at least one of them must be scum though.

Puxlut I believe her anomaly reveal, there's no upside to a fake host reveal that I can deduce, plus she seems genuine. Basically a confirmed town unless something else comes to light.

SebC, unless he's thinking like 5 moves ahead of us all, would not have posted about the potential game ender and Mazrim reply, if he already had the scum info. So he's a high probability town for me.

There's a bunch of posters kind of laying low and playing it fairly neutral. I would put Squiggs, Devo, ECF, MrKajz, LegoMan, PartyElephant, and Dissentowner in here. I'm sure at least one of them is scum (likely 2), but it's hard to get a good read because they have been playing the game fairly close to the chest IMO. I was suspicious of ECF on Game Day 1. His Day 2 play didn't do much to swing me more town or scum either way. LegoMan is also suspicious to me with his low post count, the way the Girly vote went down (tried to tell us not to vote for Girly and then voted for her himself), and that recent mistake of agreeing with 'XXX'.

People "off" my list for now are Pux, Seb, Oling and HG. And myself obviously. I'm trying to sort out the scum ranking of the rest.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Go ahead and vote me out, when I flip town the spotlight will go on Timbo and Hockeyguy15. I have spent some time re-reading posts. The other guy on my radar is GGG, something is definitely wrong with the way he is posting this game. Hockeyguy15 has been steering the ship and I think he is scum but there is a small chance I am wrong. Timbo on the other hand is definitely scum, I have zero doubt. So on that note.

Unvote
Vote:Timbo

Go ahead and kill me, if it gets the passengers on the right track and leads to some scum kills and the passengers survive I still win. Have at it.

I think Diss has hit every I am part of the town cliche with the at least my death will help the town.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Well Sebc wouldn't have pm'd if he was scum and already told. Going to take this as Sebc being town, until we lose the spore at least.

I would have to agree, sorry Seb, I guess you have your reasons for your strategy.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Given that I now have a bit of a pedestal today, I'll try to come up with some stuff that I think is safe to share.

In the meantime, I'll reiterate my position that I think that keeping the mafia in the dark as to who the lynch targets might be creates a town advantage. Uncertainty followed by a short window to react will produce more pressure than votes (particularly if the votes are misplaced).

How does this work in practice, scum girly from last game kept saying she wanted to surprise scum. I really don't understand how forcing town to not have time to think when they vote helps town. It helps scum as they know their strategy, town on the other hand needs time to think and evaluate.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by SebC

I guess I can say that for today, I consider Oling to be just about as much town as myself and Puxlut.

I'm also going to repeat this... "Does anyone want to come clean about things they've changed from previous CP mafia game(s), and why?"

Well last game I was more aggressive and pushed hard on my hunches which in turn helped lynch some townies whom I thought were scum. Not good. So this game I have tried at the beginning to lay off the aggression tactic for fear I will hurt the town more than help them. The game is different to so I wanted to ask questions at the beginning so I had a clear understanding of what was happening here. I also don't work a profession where I can be on the computer a lot at work and have been taking quite a few paid duties on off days too. The flow just seems different this game, it is a tough nut to crack.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I guess I'm getting some flack for being inconspicuous, so I'll try and get the ball rolling on who I think is the biggest target right now:

Vote: mrkajz44

Guy is the king of the drive by post. He wades in here, tries to get everyone side tracked or confused and then disappears.

I find thus vote interesting,

The vote is 2 Diss, 2 HG, 1 Seb, 1 Lego, 1 Timbo

The push for HG has been going, Seb is been confirmed town, Timbo has said that he feels MrKajz and Diis are pretty scummy. So here ECF puts his vote on MrKajz for basically the same reasoning Timbo posts.

Devo quickly follows up.

Then Bizaro puts pressure back on Diss.

I'm leaning that the MrKajz vote by ECF was a scum vote designed to move discussion away from either Diss or HG. It feels like in the scum thread someone said go put a vote on someone new to get the heat off.

[GGG]

unvote
vote dissentowner

[dissentowner]

And there we have it. My top 3 scum suspects are all voting for me. Excellent Smithers!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

And there we have it. My top 3 scum suspects are all voting for me. Excellent Smithers!

And all along you said this game was hard, who knew?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

And there we have it. My top 3 scum suspects are all voting for me. Excellent Smithers!

You know that means all three are highly unlikely to be scum right. So you need to rethink your list.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

And there we have it. My top 3 scum suspects are all voting for me. Excellent Smithers!

Dissentowner my biggest problem with you is you are doing everything you can to not be noticed.
Is this good town behaviour? You have played enough to see the results of that kind of behaviour.
You avoid hunting.
Your most aggressive posts are against those who have made votes against you.
You react when only a few posts are going your way.
You accuse me and call me definite scum but you give zero and I emphasize zero evidence to back your claim, other than spite.
No where do you give quotes or references to past posts that support your claim.

Given all of this what do you expect? If you felt a strategy of being small and unnoticed was the way to go I believe you made a fatal error.
You give me nothing to even consider reversing my vote and or stance on your alignment, other than your indignation.

I am open to reason just give me something to work with or consider.