North and South Korea exchange artillery fire

[T@T]

South Korean defense minister resigns.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapc...ex.html?hpt=T1

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by T@T

In the war the south had the wests support as well, maybe they think Russia and China will give them the same as they did back then? Problem is they have nukes and if they feel the pinch they are probably crazy enough to use them.

When your fighting a war on a small continent where most things can be placed in long range artillary range within a couple of days you don't need nukes, if you have a 1 million chemical weapons shells you can pretty much destroy a contry and reclaim the infastructure after the fact.

The quandy is that the American's treat all weapons of mass destruction as on. So chemical, Biological and nuclear are the same in the eyes of any defense treaty with South Korea, and since America has gone out of the offensive chemical and biological warfare game the only logical response is nuclear.

While I don't see China fighting on North Korea's side, there will be a trigger point for Chinese involvement, but I think that they will more then likely drop paratroopers into a declared DMZ and act as peace keepers while they gut the NK government.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by T@T

South Korean defense minister resigns.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapc...ex.html?hpt=T1

Now we will elect a new Defense Minister, a strong Defense Minister



Vote Cos Palpatine for South Korean Defense Minister

Vote no to proposition 419 against free Milk for Kids

[SeoulFire]

One thing that I don't think a lot of people know is the difficult political dynamic at work here within South Korea. The political decisions are not just weighed against the risks of further actions (and subsequent loss of life/economy etc) - they must be weighed against the "progressives".

This was a term that I absolutely despised while in Korea - it is used to describe those who are sympathetic to the Norks and basically have taken upon themselves to act as defenders of the North from the South. These groups are masters of the spin and will take any angle to resolve the North of blame and place it squarely on the (current) right-leaning government. In the past when the pinkos were in charge, the blame for pretty much every incident is shifted to the US.

These people are a minority but a very visible and vocal minority that has incredible skill in organizing and bringing people along for the ride so to speak. These people are also not all on the periphery of society - many are in politics and are a strong majority in the teachers association (yes many do teach their revisionist history/opinions in class).

So if retaliatory action is planned, the government must take the domestic protests into account - especially since the government is the GNP (right).

Quick current link - the mayor of Incheon which has control over the islands

http://www.freekorea.us/2010/11/24/m...home-to-roost/

Beef protests (to highlight how the groups can mobilize). It was a perfect opportunity for the groups to target both the US and the right-leaning party in power.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US...in_South_Korea

The protests were organized and the masses whipped into a frenzy by the same people involved in almost all anti-US, anti-right etc etc protests.

There are many South Koreans who refuse to believe that the Norks sunk the Cheonan and that it was either done by their own government or the US. The buzz seems to be that many are now currently blaming it on the South because they hold military drills and that made the Norks attack. And there are some who believe that the South shot first...

More useful links:

One Free Korea - excellent information about North Korea
The Marmot's Hole - more contemporary but usually very up to date (lots of other stuff - not just politics). The writer is fluent in Korean and often translates local articles

Long post but there is a lot more going on than just weighing the Norks response to any further action.

[SeeBass]

How come nobody is talking about the South shooting into Northern waters for a training exersise? That makes no sense why they would do it if not to poke the North.

It is also a funny thing this happens a week after America doesn't get their trade deal.

And a day later Russia and China agree to drop the US$

I think more things are going on than just NK having a fit.

[TylerSVT]

It would suck if #### went down.

When i was in Seoul last year i thought it was so beautiful. I cant imagine the millions of people trying to leave that city if something happened... its redic.

At least every man knows how to fight as joining the military is a necessity.

[SeoulFire]

Not going to speculate on the latter points but I believe that the only ones claiming that the South did so are the Norks. This is pretty much in line with what they always say - "you did it first" or "you made us".

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

How come nobody is talking about the South shooting into Northern waters for a training exersise? That makes no sense why they would do it if not to poke the North.

It is also a funny thing this happens a week after America doesn't get their trade deal.

And a day later Russia and China agree to drop the US$

I think more things are going on than just NK having a fit.

They were doing training exercises in disputed waters. Hardly equivalent to shooting missiles into SK.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

How come nobody is talking about the South shooting into Northern waters for a training exersise? That makes no sense why they would do it if not to poke the North.

The problem is the whole area is in dispute. The SK navy and the islands that got shelled are in an area south of the Norther Limit Line (NLL which runs parallel with NK's costline) which is recognized by the united nations and almost all other countries as the southernmost point of NK territory in that area. NK on the other hand has drawn it's own Military Demarcation Line (MDL which runs parallel with the DMZ) that no one else recognizes.

The SK navy (along formerly with the US navy) hold exercises there every single year at the same time. NK has never been happy about this condition of the armistice because it had no say in the matter. While the Chinese and the NKs had a powerful army during the the war, they had no navy to speak of to enforce the MDL. So this has been a point of contention for years. Meanwhile the US/UN/SK has held exercises in the area as a show of force to enforce the NLL. NKs contend that the they were firing in retaliation for being fired upon during the exercises, but the SK exercises ended about half a day before the shelling began and were well off the coast.

[SeeBass]

Originally Posted by SeoulFire

Not going to speculate on the latter points but I believe that the only ones claiming that the South did so are the Norks. This is pretty much in line with what they always say - "you did it first" or "you made us".

Are you saying that nobody else has confirmed the south's shells hit North waters?

[YYC in LAX]

Best case Ontario is they just nuke each other.

[SeeBass]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

The problem is the whole area is in dispute. The SK navy and the islands that got shelled are in an area south of the Norther Limit Line (NLL which runs parallel with NK's costline) which is recognized by the united nations and almost all other countries as the southernmost point of NK territory in that area. NK on the other hand has drawn it's own Military Demarcation Line (MDL which runs parallel with the DMZ) that no one else recognizes.

The SK navy (along formerly with the US navy) hold exercises there every single year at the same time. NK has never been happy about this condition of the armistice because it had no say in the matter. While the Chinese and the NKs had a powerful army during the the war, they had no navy to speak of to enforce the MDL. So this has been a point of contention for years. Meanwhile the US/UN/SK has held exercises in the area as a show of force to enforce the NLL. Issue is, the NKs contend that the they were firing in retaliation for being fired upon during the exercises, but the SK exercises ended about half a day before the shelling began and were well off the coast.

Interesting, I wonder if that is evidence of how bad their response time would be? Or where they mulling it over?

[SeoulFire]

Originally Posted by TylerSVT

It would suck if #### went down.

When i was in Seoul last year i thought it was so beautiful. I cant imagine the millions of people trying to leave that city if something happened... its redic.

At least every man knows how to fight as joining the military is a necessity.

It wouldn't happen. If you were around for Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving if you will) you know first hand how the traffic is. It has been reported that it has taken more than 20 hours to get from Seoul to Busan (about 400km). Throw in the wreckage from artillery and it would be a standstill. I am also sure that every bridge over the Han River is targeted so those north of the Han will be pretty much screwed.

[HPLovecraft]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

Interesting, I wonder if that is evidence of how bad their response time would be? Or where they mulling it over?

Or it is unrelated and/or not as a result of official orders.

[SeoulFire]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

Are you saying that nobody else has confirmed the south's shells hit North waters?

They fired back in retaliation. There is no evidence that the drills fired into North waters other than their say-so.

[FlameOn]

Here's a map of the area in question along with all the other un-pronounceable Korean Islands

[CaptainCrunch]

Its typical North Korean propoganda. At the start of the war North Korea claimed that South Korea had invaded and were beaten back by the heroic peoples army.

The water where South Korea fired has been disputed since the formation of the two countries, it could almost be considered a DMZ, and I have a lot of trouble with North Korea's honesty.

Bottom line is this is more of NK's strategy of throwing a temper tantrum to get concessions in exchange for peace, however they might have miscalculated this time as I don't think they're going to get aid or concessions.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

Interesting, I wonder if that is evidence of how bad their response time would be? Or where they mulling it over?

Given the level of Soviet level of tech the NKs have access to, probably the former... Other reason is they were using it as an excuse for Kim Jong-Un to flex some military muscle so the hard line commanders would like him better.

Otherwise its the crazy generals have taken over and Jong-Il isn't really in control anymore... scary thought.

[Tinordi]

There's a large degree of racism in Korean society which is the ideological driver of the cult of personality in North Korea. North Koreans see themselves as 'pure' and too pure to go out into the dangerous world without the stewardship of their Dear Leader. Sadly this racism doesn't end at the DMZ. Many many South Koreans also ascribe to this idea and view the North Koreans with a sort of pastoral purity and reverence.

Dealing with NK for the South Korean government is politicially challenging because of this segment. The South Korean government doesn't want to be perceived as being too harsh. There's also a strong conspiracy theory movement in SK which attempts to pin NK actions as deceptions of the imperialist west notably the U.S. Strong statements against NK aggression are therefore difficult from the SK government because they risk being perceived as lap dogs to American interests.

It is notable that in the collective history of South Koreans they barely regard the American role in the war. On their national day of victory there is no mention of American military aid and their recognition of the heroes of war pays no mention to American losses. This lapse in a collective memory among South Koreans is a sad but significant driver of the complex political relationship it has to the North.

A whole other post can be written on how NK exploits this relationship and the lack of an honest collective history in SK.

[SeoulFire]

It is notable that in the collective history of South Koreans they barely regard the American role in the war.

I don't disagree with what you say but I would like to mention that the Korean Vets and many of the older generation do recognize the role (but not at a formal govt level).