Who is winning the election?

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by Jiggy_12@Nov 3 2004, 05:06 AM
I don't think Bush has won Florida yet, ABC is the only one saying that.

Yahoo says it too : http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...ln_election_rdp

[calf]

Bush is leading in Ohio by apx 125,000; 76% of precincts reporting..tctc

[Mango]

Yahoo has Kerry having leans in: Nevada, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. Minnesota could play an important role with 17 electorals.

They have no leans listed for Hawaii or Alaska yet.

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by calf@Nov 3 2004, 05:12 AM
Bush is leading in Ohio by apx 125,000; 76% of precincts reporting..tctc

does that stick a fork into kerry? its looking more and more like, well, more Bush....

[CaramonLS]

Kerry needs Ohio or it is over.

[calf]

Originally posted by RedHot25+Nov 2 2004, 11:14 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (RedHot25 @ Nov 2 2004, 11:14 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-calf@Nov 3 2004, 05:12 AM
Bush is leading in Ohio by apx 125,000; 76% of precincts reporting..tctc

does that stick a fork into kerry? its looking more and more like, well, more Bush.... [/b][/quote]
It can still change...but if Kerry doesn't pull out the win there, he's as good as done it seems

[Mango]

Kerry at 206 (yahoo.com) with the win in Oregon.

[RedHot25]

cnn.com has 234 - 188 for monsieur bush.

[calf]

Originally posted by Mango@Nov 2 2004, 11:18 PM
Kerry at 206 (yahoo.com) with the win in Oregon.

And the win in Washington

Bush at 237

[calf]

By my amateur analysis (looking at the yahoo page), it seems that New Mexico can play a key as well. That state if that state can switch over to Kerry (which is very possible, it's a close race), and assuming Bush wins Ohio and Alaska, the rest of the leanings stay the same..looks like Kerry could squeak one out that way. But that's pure speculation

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by calf@Nov 3 2004, 05:23 AM
By my amateur analysis (looking at the yahoo page), it seems that New Mexico can play a key as well. That state if that state can switch over to Kerry (which is very possible, it's a close race), and assuming Bush wins Ohio and Alaska, the rest of the leanings stay the same..looks like Kerry could squeak one out that way. But that's pure speculation

My bad...I thought that I saw on TV somewhere that New Mexico had already gone to Bush?

Redhot25 is preparing to predict a Bush victory (not a fact or anything, just a gut feeling). ;_;

[Daradon]

I think I can hear the sound of the rest of the western world banging it's head against the proverbial wall...

[Mango]

Bush at 246 (yahoo.com) by winning Colorado.

[Mango]

Originally posted by calf@Nov 2 2004, 10:23 PM
By my amateur analysis (looking at the yahoo page), it seems that New Mexico can play a key as well. That state if that state can switch over to Kerry (which is very possible, it's a close race), and assuming Bush wins Ohio and Alaska, the rest of the leanings stay the same..looks like Kerry could squeak one out that way. But that's pure speculation

You're right - NM is the wild card right now. It's 51% - 48% in that state.

[flames_1987]

Ar·ma·ged·don

1.The scene of a final battle between the forces of good and evil, prophesied to occur at the end of the world.
2.A decisive or catastrophic conflict

[calf]

Originally posted by RedHot25+Nov 2 2004, 11:26 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (RedHot25 @ Nov 2 2004, 11:26 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-calf@Nov 3 2004, 05:23 AM
By my amateur analysis (looking at the yahoo page), it seems that New Mexico can play a key as well.# That state if that state can switch over to Kerry (which is very possible, it's a close race), and assuming Bush wins Ohio and Alaska, the rest of the leanings stay the same..looks like Kerry could squeak one out that way.# But that's pure speculation

My bad...I thought that I saw on TV somewhere that New Mexico had already gone to Bush?

Redhot25 is preparing to predict a Bush victory (not a fact or anything, just a gut feeling). ;_; [/b][/quote]
Very well could be...it's definately looking that way now

'cmon Alaska!

[Mango]

Yahoo is now showing that Bush is leading Alaska.

[calf]

Kerry won the extra elector in Maine 246-207 for Dubya

[RedHot25]

Originally posted by Daradon@Nov 3 2004, 05:26 AM
I think I can hear the sound of the rest of the western world banging it's head against the proverbial wall...

I think that this qoute says it all.

Can you believe the polling in most of the other countries? things like 80 - 20...70 - 30...in favour of kerry. crazy stuff.

[DeanOMac]

Are the sources such as CBS, NBC, CNN, Yahoo etc. all using leaning because they are too chicken to just say it?

Being a very amatuer statistician, I know that when you sample a certain amount, that trend will usually stay the same. When voting, youd have to factor in that some states have very democratic areas and others republican areas, but overall if you take about 30 votes from each polling station, you can get a very strong estimate for who will win.

Im wondering if its just cause they blew it big last election that no one will step up and say for sure.

Edit: Im partially asking, if this is true to some of those more experienced statisticians. Removed CNN because I am not exaclty sure who blew it.