[PGT] Sharks defeat Flames 6-3, Dec 16th

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Bedard and Celebrini are unusual. Again, my view is that Celebrini is the best prospect to come along since McDavid and the closest thing to Crosby we've seen because of the completeness of his game, offensive skills and compete.

There was thought that McKenna was also of this quality, but it's clear he's not.

Tiering guys is always dangerous but if we look over the top 3 picks since the McDavid draft


Generational potential: Celebrini, Bedard

Superstar : Schaefer, Carlsson, Fantilli, Hughes, Matthews

Star : Misa, Frondell, Levshunov, Sennecke, Cooley, Stutzle, Dahlin, Heiskanen

Good but not great: Slafkovsky, Nemec, McTavish, Beniers, Byfield, Svechnikov, Hischier,

Meh to Bust: Lafreniere, Kakko, Dach, Kotkaniemi, Patrick, Laine, Dubois

I think the franchise altering guys are Superstar and above. But even then, it's more likely you get something resembling a star player or a good player.

This is why re-builds are so hard. Which isn't to say that you don't need those top picks. You do because they are your best chance.

But this is why so many teams have failed re-builds. You need a lot of luck to hit on one of those guys that can change your franchise.

and I think even then likely one or two that are in the star or good not great category may still end up meh to bust- Laine and Dubois didn't feel they were going that direction a couple years post draft (none of them ever do right after drafting for example so who knows for the 25s)


and I think Power is missing- I'm guessing where he tiers

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Basically 40 then.

whats up with the inflating age thing?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

whats up with the inflating age thing?

Its a running gag...just go with it.

[NegativeSpace]

I mean the Sharks have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last six years. I think that their management has made some good moves recently, but they were fortunate to get Celebrini. Jiri is right that he's easily the best prospect since McDavid.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

whats up with the inflating age thing?

Don't be ashamed you don't get it, you're almost 100 years old.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Maloney club tonight:
See firsthand an elite player picked at the top of the draft decimate the team single handedly --> Still prefer shooting to eke out two home playoff dates with no first line.
"Th-the core is g-good boys.."

Or the ones that want to win just to see a few posters upset. Which is its own kind of odd schadenfreude-derived pseudofandom.

Okay sorry, carry on.

Who the hell are you talking about?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I am not a troll actually and just last night in the game thread saw you all upset with another poster and arguing with them as well. You called them "cranky pants".

People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

I challenged that poster for making up something. Which they did.

[topfiverecords]

We should look at trading for Danault from the Kings. If we can't join 'em, we should shut them down.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, people aren’t talking that way about McKenna now, are they?

And remind me where Iginla was drafted. Pavel Bure. Nikita Kucherov. Joe Salic. Theo Fleury.

Only because people put way too much emphasis on 15 games where he struggled to adjust to NCAA a bit.

Personally I put more emphasis on the two full seasons where he dominated the WHL as a 16 and 17 year old.

And sure maybe you get lucky and hit on a Kucherov or a Gaudreau (I'd rather focus on players from the last 20 years) but it's not some controversal opinion to state that most elite / generational players are picked in the top 5 of the draft.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by looooob

and I think even then likely one or two that are in the star or good not great category may still end up meh to bust- Laine and Dubois didn't feel they were going that direction a couple years post draft (none of them ever do right after drafting for example so who knows for the 25s)


and I think Power is missing- I'm guessing where he tiers

Yes he's so meh that I forgot him completely!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I mean the Sharks have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last six years. I think that their management has made some good moves recently, but they were fortunate to get Celebrini. Jiri is right that he's easily the best prospect since McDavid.

Is it fortunate? Or is it a product of being bad year over year means eventually one of those players will fall into your lap when drafting 4th, 1st, 2nd overall in successive seasons. Really that's how it ideally should work for a rebuilding team. Rangers only spent two years picking top 5 and were extremely unfortunate to draft 1st and 2nd in successive drafts where the top guys simply were not good but they also didn't spend enough time at the bottom picking top 5 or even top 10. Flyers only had the single bottom out year when they selected Patrick and after that they have largely been in the mushy middle. Lets not forget, the Sabres would look a lot different today had they not botched the Eichel situation. Coaching, development, and treating your players the right way also matters in a rebuild.

[ST20]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Why not?

We have seen Bedard and Celebrini in the last couple years . There is at least a star or two at the top of the draft almost every year. What make you think the Flames can get one if they finish last?

Yup, add Schaefer too. What is looking like 3 super star players (Schaeffer is still too early to call) went back to back to back in the 3 drafts where the Flames were supposedly 'rebuilding' but not having a very high pick hurts.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ST20

Yup, add Schaefer too. What is looking like 3 super star players (Schaeffer is still too early to call) went back to back to back in the 3 drafts where the Flames were supposedly 'rebuilding' but not having a very high pick hurts.

Schaefer is also an example of the role of luck though, as the Islanders certainly didn't bottom out to give themselves a good chance at a high pick. They hit the lotto. I think their odds of landing the 1st pick were 3.5% (someone can correct me if I'm wrong on that)

And that win could hurt them long-term if Schaefer is good enough to elevate a team, that would otherwise be trending to the bottom, back to the dreaded mushy middle.

[Igottago]

I dont think anyone is arguing that high draft picks are a sure thing or that there isn't luck involved. But they are the most likely probability of getting a star or superstar player. Otherwise teams would literally trade top 3 picks on a regular basis and just move down the draft to find diamonds in the rough.
Some of you guys have a really strange aversion to the Flames picking high, it makes no sense whatsoever. Fretting about a top pick not becoming Celebrini is a completely irrational reason not to actually want that draft position.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Maybe. Maybe not.

Coming into this season Gavin McKenna was 100% talked about as a player of that quality, and Stenberg is putting up pretty close numbers in terms of NHLe playing in a men's league too.

So sure, you might not get a player like that even if you do draft top 3. But you are 100% not getting a player like that if you don't draft top 3.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Only because people put way too much emphasis on 15 games where he struggled to adjust to NCAA a bit.

Personally I put more emphasis on the two full seasons where he dominated the WHL as a 16 and 17 year old.

And sure maybe you get lucky and hit on a Kucherov or a Gaudreau (I'd rather focus on players from the last 20 years) but it's not some controversal opinion to state that most elite / generational players are picked in the top 5 of the draft.

You posted an absolute and then when I showed you examples otherwise you act like I'm the one taking an unreasonable stance, while backpedalling what you originally said.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Igottago

I dont think anyone is arguing that high draft picks are a sure thing or that there isn't luck involved. But they are the most likely probability of getting a star or superstar player. Otherwise teams would literally trade top 3 picks on a regular basis and just move down the draft to find diamonds in the rough.
Some of you guys have a really strange aversion to the Flames picking high, it makes no sense whatsoever. Fretting about a top pick not becoming Celebrini is a completely irrational reason not to actually want that draft position.

You sure that's the opposing view?

Or is it a recognition that there is value in a dressing room for not going scorched Earth, and there's likely value in assessing a market and moving assets when a price is paid?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Igottago

I dont think anyone is arguing that high draft picks are a sure thing or that there isn't luck involved. But they are the most likely probability of getting a star or superstar player. Otherwise teams would literally trade top 3 picks on a regular basis and just move down the draft to find diamonds in the rough.
Some of you guys have a really strange aversion to the Flames picking high, it makes no sense whatsoever. Fretting about a top pick not becoming Celebrini is a completely irrational reason not to actually want that draft position.

This was the string that sparked my comments. But I also tried to be clear that I'm still 100% on board with the need for high picks for the reasons you say.
But I do think some view it as a more guaranteed thing than it is in reality.

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Why not?

We have seen Bedard and Celebrini in the last couple years . There is at least a star or two at the top of the draft almost every year. What make you think the Flames can get one if they finish last?

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames could finish last and win the lottery and they aren't getting a player like Celebrini.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Red Potato Standing By

You have a way better chance top 3 but to say 100 percent is also dishonest

Originally Posted by united

Getting a true superstar centre outside the top three is improbable and remote, but not 0%. Three of my all-time favourites in fact, in part because they were not top picks.

Anze Kopitar: top-20 era-adjusted points all time, 1,500-game club, 1,300-point club, 2-time Selke winner, 4-time Selke finalist, inevitable Hall-of-Famer.

Patrice Bergeron: top-75 era-adjusted points all time, 1,200-game club, 1,000-point club, 6-time Selke winner, 12-time Selke finalist. Imminent Hall-of-Famer.

Pavel Datsyuk: top-125 era-adjusted points all time despite fewer than 1,000 game played, 3-time Selke winner, 6-time Selke finalist. Hall-of-Fame class of 2024.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You posted an absolute and then when I showed you examples otherwise you act like I'm the one taking an unreasonable stance, while backpedalling what you originally said.

This is fair - it's tough to say anything in certainty.

But maybe to rephrase what I said - if you are the GM of a team you 100% can't plan on getting a player of that quality outside of the top 5.

You can hope you do, and maybe you do get fortunate, but if you do it's very lucky and you were handed a great opportunity because it's very unlikely outside of the top 5 or to extend it further top 10 of a draft.

If we look at the top centers by Point per game that were drafted in the salary cap era (lets say like 2003 or later for draft year) - this is what it looks like:

1) McDavid - 1st Overall
2) Crosby - 1st Overall
3) Draisaitl - 3rd Overall
4) Mackinnon - 1st Overall
5) Matthews - 1st Overall
6) Malkin - 2nd Overall
7) Celebrini - 1st Overall
8) Stamkos - 1st Overall
9) Eichel - 2nd Overall
10) Barkov - 2nd Overall
11) Hughes - 1st Overall
12) Pettersson - 5th Overall
13) Point - 79th Overall

14) Bedard - 1st Overall
15) Tavares - 1st Overall
16) Backstrom - 4th Overall
17) Aho - 35th Overall
18) Scheifele - 7th Overall
19) Stutzle - 3rd Overall
20) Getzlaf - 19th Overall
21) Kopitar - 11th Overall
22) Barzal - 16th Overall
23) Thomas - 20th Overall
24) Suzuki - 13th Overall
25) Bergeron - 45th Overall
26) Seguin - 2nd Overall
27) Toews - 3rd Overall
28) Hintz - 49th Overall
29) Spezza - 2nd Overall
30) Staal - 2nd Overall

So that breaks down as:

Top 5: 20
6-20: 6
21-32: 0
2nd Round or Later: 4

So if I'm a betting man I know where I'd be trying to get that top center.

To look at it a slighly different way. From 2003 to about 2023 there were 20 drafts. There would have been at least 1100 picks made between Pick 6 and the end of the second round in that time. In those drafts there were 10 centers drafted that were "top line" centers in that time - or a 0.9% chance.

There were 100 top 5 picks made in those same 20 drafts, and it seemed to deliver 20 top line centers - or a 20% chance. Once again if I'm the GM I'd much rather bank on a 20% chance of a top center than a 0.9% chance of getting one.

Now this is a bit weird when looking at 2026 specifically, because it's the rare year where there aren't those centers at the top of the draft and you might be able to get a Lawrence or even Malholtra who is really climbing now more in that 5-10 range.

Edit: I'm going to be less lazy and do this exercise for all positions now actually.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Robbob

One thing I noticed last night when Brendan Parker was interviewing Celebrini after the game, is all the talk about Cole Reschny being undersized centre just might go away. Celebrini is pretty much the same as Reschny.

That's promising, if not for Reschny turning 40 soon.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Locke

When is the next game because apparently this one seems to have broken some people.

Could it potentially bring the Flames up to 22nd?