[News] Francis: One-year faceplant

[DionTheDman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

At what point do we start to talk about the fact Conroy still doesn’t have a new deal?

I heard that they asked him "Why should we keep you on?" a few months ago, and rumour has it he's still talking today.

[Strange Brew]

I do find it a little odd that he qualifies it as a "one year" face plant. He recommends doing this: "the Flames need to lean into their losing season by starting to trade off veterans, promote more AHLers and get younger" and believes one high end draft pick means the pain only lasts a year?

[Erick Estrada]

One year faceplant is something that you look back on in history not something you can expect to happen. There's no guarantee that next season, the Flames pick themselves right up off the mat and reverts back to the 96 point team they were last season. There's nobody in this upcoming draft that is going to be able to step right in and change the fortunes of the team. This could be a 2, 3, 4, or longer faceplant depending on how the drafts and development go as the current roster is getting older, not better. I do think this needs to happen for the Flames to build a true cup contender but it kind of stinks because there's already the last three seasons out of the playoffs where they were trying to win which will make the drought feel longer than it should.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

One year faceplant is something that you look back on in history not something you can expect to happen. There's no guarantee that next season, the Flames pick themselves right up off the mat and reverts back to the 96 point team they were last season. There's nobody in this upcoming draft that is going to be able to step right in and change the fortunes of the team. This could be a 2, 3, 4, or longer faceplant depending on how the drafts and development go as the current roster is getting older, not better. I do think this needs to happen for the Flames to build a true cup contender but it kind of stinks because there's already the last three seasons out of the playoffs where they were trying to win which will make the drought feel longer than it should.

I actually don't think they were truly trying to win in 23-24 or 24-25... but it's also what frustrated some people. They weren't contenders and weren't tanking - so they were kind of just in the middle.

They probably needed to move players faster in 23-24 to ensure a worse finish.

They were 31st on November 1st of that season and had a 2-7-1 record but then had a strong November and December which got them back into the .500 range and in the mushy middle.

I actually think it was what happened that season that had a lot of the fan base clamoring for Conroy to act quicker that season.

Now I'm not sure how much it would have changed the end result of our prospect pool that season - as the only guys clearly better than Parekh in the top 5 of that draft are Celebrini and Demidov but you aren't out sucking San Jose that season anyways.

I think it's quite possible Flames would have drafted Parekh or Iginla at 5 anyways if that's where they were picking in that draft.

And then last year they were clearly trying to suck - but every thing just fell their way and they had a very fortunate season. Now this year it's the opposite and everything is going wrong.

So really it's not a one year faceplant - it's really year 4 of a what was supposed to be a slow and steady fall that had a bit of a surprise performance in the third act.

[Robbob]

I love Iggy as much as the next person, but it would be a mistake to promote him to the GM right now. I don't think he is even carrying an AGM tag...more of an assistant to the assistant GM.

[Strange Brew]

Chances of iginla becoming GM are about 0% IMO

[Two Fivenagame]

Nonis, Pascal, Malony, Conroy... That seems like a lot of management for a tanking team. I wonder if Flames ownership is looking to thin that group out a bit.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Two Fivenagame

Nonis, Pascal, Malony, Conroy... That seems like a lot of management for a tanking team. I wonder if Flames ownership is looking to thin that group out a bit.

Don't forget Peter Hanlon.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I do find it a little odd that he qualifies it as a "one year" face plant. He recommends doing this: "the Flames need to lean into their losing season by starting to trade off veterans, promote more AHLers and get younger" and believes one high end draft pick means the pain only lasts a year?

One thing this team has been very capable of year over year is bouncing back after a rough year or underwhelm after a good year. Once Treliving got here it started and the 3 years under Conroy have gone the same way.

It does seem unlikely this roster will somehow be good next year. If they get McKenna and he lights it up and Parekh, Wolf, Coronato all have big years. They acquire some pieces for Kadri that work annd add someone via trade in the summer. Huby and Weegar have their best years in Calgary and all of a sudden this is a 93pt team.

Unlikely but who saw last years team getting 96pts?

[Freeway]

Originally Posted by Two Fivenagame

Nonis, Pascal, Malony, Conroy... That seems like a lot of management for a tanking team. I wonder if Flames ownership is looking to thin that group out a bit.

It's pretty typical for an NHL club.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Well, we're well on our way to having a young team in place for 27-28, and I guess routinely getting your faces caved in fits some definition of the word "exciting". By 27-28, we need hope.

Unfortunately face caving is part of the process. And if they draft and develop well enough the progress of growth is the exciting part. It's gonna be a long road, but one worth doing, if done correctly.

Look at the league standings today versus the 2023-2017 drafting orders. During those draft years there were 13 teams to draft 2 or more top 5 picks between those years. From those 13 teams, only three teams aren't in the playoffs today: Seattle (1pt out), Buffalo, and Columbus. And I don't think we need to go into much detail about the history of the latter two.

Of the ten teams that are in the playoffs, they make up the 1st, 2nd, 3rd ranked teams in the league, all four division leaders, and five of the top 10 teams in the standings. The other five top ten teams include three teams that have picked once: Winnipeg (2nd, although in 2016), Carolina (2nd in 2018), Dallas (3rd in 2017), with the other two being organizations of the likes of Boston and Pittsburgh. Zooming out to teams that have picked only once or more in the top 5 between 2023-2017 they make up 12 of the current 16 playoff teams. And if you include the 2016 draft it is 14 of 16 teams.

Maybe all that is coincidence, but I'm willing to risk a few bad years. Some of these teams will no doubt fall out of the playoffs, but that is a part of the learning curve. And to me that is a lot more hope than crossing my fingers every April and then picking 12th to 20th with few home playoff games every handful of years. That's the biggest reason I'm on Team Tank for a few years. Team Middle of the Road hasn't worked for 20 years, so why not, seems to be working well for others.

[stemit14]

Would probably be better overall if it was a 2-year face plant at least in the long run. Let’s have an incredibly (and statistically extremely unlikely) optimistic plan:

2025-2026 SEASON:

Trade Andersson, Kadri and Coleman before the trade deadline and get back a 2026 1st round pick, a 2027 1st round pick, a 2026 2nd round pick and a 2026 3rd round pick. Plus a decent prospect or two.

With more opportunity and hopefully some momentum/confidence playing at the world juniors, Parekh has a stronger 2nd half of the season. In the last month or two of the season, looks like a top four defenceman.

Zary gets to play center in the last half of the season with some better linemates after Kadri is traded. Gains confidence and looks like he did pre-injuries.

Brzustewicz gets regular minutes with the flames to finish the season.

Vegas faceplants as well in the 2nd half of the season. It would likely require a few more injuries to their top players for this to have a hope to happen - which isn’t crazy considering they will have a few players going to the Olympics. They miss the playoffs and the pick they gave Calgary for Hanifin ends up in the top 5 of the 2026 draft.

The flames finish last and keep the 1st overall pick position in the draft after the lottery.

The flames go into the draft with the 1st overall pick, the 5th overall pick and say the 25th overall pick (Andersson trade).

They draft McKenna (1st), Lawrence (5th) and Joe Iginla (25th).

2026-2027 SEASON:

Gridin makes the team out of camp and plays in the top six.

Reschny and Potter both play one more year of NCAA and both are Hobey Baker candidates. Both join the flames for the last couple games of the season and look great.

With retention, flames trade Farabee and Frost at the 2027 TDL. Get a conditional 1st round pick for Frost and a 4th round pick for Farabee.

Flames finish bottom 3 in the league and have 3 first round picks in the 2027 draft - say 2nd overall, 25th overall (Kadri trade) and 30th overall (Frost trade).

Flames select 6’5” center Alexis Joseph at 2nd overall.

Flames package 25th overall + 30th overall + Huberdeau (retained) for Tij Iginla after he makes it clear to Utah that he wants to be traded.

2027-2028 SEASON IN NEW ARENA:

Potter starts with the Wranglers.

Flames all of a sudden have a logjam at center after developing Zary there for a couple seasons. At this point, they have Joseph-Lawrence-Reschny-Zary-Tij Iginla-Backlund-Potter as their center depth. Not a bad problem to have after decades of wanting skilled centerman in the organization.

After multiple drafts of multiple picks in each round, the team at this point is likely pretty deep organizationally at every position. The lineup I have below is essentially made up of mostly first round picks in the forward group (9 out of the 12 spots) and there are 5 former top 10 picks on the roster. Doesn’t account for any 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, etc. that develop and potentially become core pieces themselves. Mixes of grit, skill, speed and size throughout the lineup. I even like the makeup of the 4th line by then.

McKenna-Joseph-Coronato
Gridin-Lawrence-Honzek
Tij Iginla-Reschny-Suniev
Posposil-Zary-Klapka
Backlund

Bahl-Parekh
Weegar-Brzustewicz
Phillips-Morin

Wolf

This team probably misses the playoffs in 2027-2028 because they are still young but likely ready to make the jump to the playoffs the following year. But they go into a new arena in 2027-2028 with elite talent at virtually every position and all 3 Iginlas are in the fold. That sounds like a licence to print money from an ownership perspective. Would be a lot of rough losses to get to this point but if you told me we could go from the current lineup to this lineup in essentially 2 years… sign me up. Of course, the odds of any of this happening are sooooo incredibly low. But fun to dream. Also, it’s likely McDavid has left the oilers by this point.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by HOOT

Unfortunately face caving is part of the process. And if they draft and develop well enough the progress of growth is the exciting part.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying -- just not that the team will be exciting by 27-28. If things go well, there will be some hope of an exciting, competitive team on the horizon by then. We're not opening the new arena with a roster that holds any excitement for that season's results.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Would probably be better overall if it was a 2-year face plant at least in the long run. Let’s have an incredibly (and statistically extremely unlikely) optimistic plan:

2025-2026 SEASON:

Trade Andersson, Kadri and Coleman before the trade deadline and get back a 2026 1st round pick, a 2027 1st round pick, a 2026 2nd round pick and a 2026 3rd round pick. Plus a decent prospect or two.

With more opportunity and hopefully some momentum/confidence playing at the world juniors, Parekh has a stronger 2nd half of the season. In the last month or two of the season, looks like a top four defenceman.

Zary gets to play center in the last half of the season with some better linemates after Kadri is traded. Gains confidence and looks like he did pre-injuries.

Brzustewicz gets regular minutes with the flames to finish the season.

Vegas faceplants as well in the 2nd half of the season. It would likely require a few more injuries to their top players for this to have a hope to happen - which isn’t crazy considering they will have a few players going to the Olympics. They miss the playoffs and the pick they gave Calgary for Hanifin ends up in the top 5 of the 2026 draft.

The flames finish last and keep the 1st overall pick position in the draft after the lottery.

The flames go into the draft with the 1st overall pick, the 5th overall pick and say the 25th overall pick (Andersson trade).

They draft McKenna (1st), Lawrence (5th) and Joe Iginla (25th).

2026-2027 SEASON:

Gridin makes the team out of camp and plays in the top six.

Reschny and Potter both play one more year of NCAA and both are Hobey Baker candidates. Both join the flames for the last couple games of the season and look great.

With retention, flames trade Farabee and Frost at the 2027 TDL. Get a conditional 1st round pick for Frost and a 4th round pick for Farabee.

Flames finish bottom 3 in the league and have 3 first round picks in the 2027 draft - say 2nd overall, 25th overall (Kadri trade) and 30th overall (Frost trade).

Flames select 6’5” center Alexis Joseph at 2nd overall.

Flames package 25th overall + 30th overall + Huberdeau (retained) for Tij Iginla after he makes it clear to Utah that he wants to be traded.

2027-2028 SEASON IN NEW ARENA:

Potter starts with the Wranglers.

Flames all of a sudden have a logjam at center after developing Zary there for a couple seasons. At this point, they have Joseph-Lawrence-Reschny-Zary-Tij Iginla-Backlund-Potter as their center depth. Not a bad problem to have after decades of wanting skilled centerman in the organization.

After multiple drafts of multiple picks in each round, the team at this point is likely pretty deep organizationally at every position. The lineup I have below is essentially made up of mostly first round picks in the forward group (9 out of the 12 spots) and there are 5 former top 10 picks on the roster. Doesn’t account for any 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, etc. that develop and potentially become core pieces themselves. Mixes of grit, skill, speed and size throughout the lineup. I even like the makeup of the 4th line by then.

McKenna-Joseph-Coronato
Gridin-Lawrence-Honzek
Tij Iginla-Reschny-Suniev
Posposil-Zary-Klapka
Backlund

Bahl-Parekh
Weegar-Brzustewicz
Phillips-Morin

Wolf

This team probably misses the playoffs in 2027-2028 because they are still young but likely ready to make the jump to the playoffs the following year. But they go into a new arena in 2027-2028 with elite talent at virtually every position and all 3 Iginlas are in the fold. That sounds like a licence to print money from an ownership perspective. Would be a lot of rough losses to get to this point but if you told me we could go from the current lineup to this lineup in essentially 2 years… sign me up. Of course, the odds of any of this happening are sooooo incredibly low. But fun to dream. Also, it’s likely McDavid has left the oilers by this point.

Sign me up if we can get even half this line up in w years.

But signing up or not, this is where we are headed, and likely face planting for more than 2 years.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Freeway

It's pretty typical for an NHL club.

Yeah, the days of an all-powerful GM running the show are over in the NHL. Franchises today are run by a team of 4-6 executives, who call on an even wider team of scouts, directors of personnel, analytics experts, capologists, etc. before making any important decisions.

Which is why people are overestimating the difference in the team’s management under Conroy. The executive team running the Flames today is largely the same as the one that ran the team four years ago - the team that decided to trade for Kadri and sign Huberdeau to an extension. The change in strategy from management isn’t because Conroy has dramatically different notions of running a team from Treliving, but because when the reload and try to contend again strategy failed, management and ownership recognized they needed to change tack.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by stemit14

This team probably misses the playoffs in 2027-2028 because they are still young but likely ready to make the jump to the playoffs the following year.

I don't see them making the playoffs until 2030. And that's if the face planting goes well. Meaning you get a #1C this draft or the next one. These kids need a few years in the league before they can challenge for a spot.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yeah, the days of an all-powerful GM running the show are over in the NHL. Franchises today are run by a team of 4-6 executives, who call on an even wider team of scouts, directors of personnel, analytics experts, capologists, etc. before making any important decisions.

Which is why people are overestimating the difference in the team’s management under Conroy. The executive team running the Flames today is largely the same as the one that ran the team four years ago - the team that decided to trade for Kadri and sign Huberdeau to an extension. The change in strategy from management isn’t because Conroy has dramatically different notions of running a team from Treliving, but because when the reload and try to contend again strategy failed, management and ownership recognized they needed to change tack.

Maybe but it’s also been reported that Tree was a bit of a one man show who didn’t fully utilize the team around him
It’s also possible Craig learned from him both in terms of the good and the bad
Seems like you are making a lot of assumptions

[Vinny01]

Slight chance we see it this summer but very good chance we see it in 2027 but I think the Flames will be proactive in adding pieces to open the new rink. I could see them chasing some free agents and being aggressive on the trade front to really be able to sell hope for the first season in Scotia Place.

[mile]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Slight chance we see it this summer but very good chance we see it in 2027 but I think the Flames will be proactive in adding pieces to open the new rink. I could see them chasing some free agents and being aggressive on the trade front to really be able to sell hope for the first season in Scotia Place.

Taylor Makar in 2026
Lures Cale in 2027


One can dream

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Maybe but it’s also been reported that Tree was a bit of a one man show who didn’t fully utilize the team around him
It’s also possible Craig learned from him both in terms of the good and the bad
Seems like you are making a lot of assumptions

People who act as though every bad (in hindsight) decision was Treliving’s alone are also making a lot of assumptions. And they’re based on motivated reasoning that the page was completely turned when Conroy assumed his position.

We’re never going to get transcripts of management meetings, so we have to make some inferences. But multiple members of that management team - including Conroy himself - have said that when they were considering trade offers for Tkachuk that they decided as a group they didn’t want to go with a futures deal.