[Kent Wilson Article] “self-satisfied mediocrity”

[GioforPM]

People talk about "full tear down rebuild" and point to the fact that guys like Kuzmenko or Sharangovich were brought in (and could be extended) as evidence that's not happening. But I'm not sure any team outside of maybe Chicago can be described as doing what some people seem to think should be done (or even is possible). You can't get rid of everyone in one year. Every rebuilding team has retained contracts, or brought in medium age players to work with. Even Chicago picked up Seth Jones and moved down in the 2022 draft to do so, and signed Nick Foligno. In 2019 the Rangers were rebuilding, heading towards drafting Kaako and Lefreniere. But they were still acquiring Trouba. Prior to drafting Hughes, NJD tanked. But they also acquired guys like Vatanen and Grabner.

[Ashes]

Can't argue with anything from the Flames perspective in that article. As an organization we need to stop taking half-measures and looking for shortcuts.

Stay away from signing guys like Necas until we are ready to truly compete, there's always another guy in need of a change of scenery.

Focus on stockpiling draft picks and trusting the scouts, it's the best way forward if we want to be competitive when the new arena opens.

IMO the absolute best thing for this organization right now would be to make a trade with NJ for that #10 pick which is now in play.

Picking 9 and 10 would be the most exciting thing to happen to this team in YEARS. It's exactly what we need in our building cycle right now.

I would be open to anything to get that pick from NJ, come on Craig make it happen. But I imagine something close to this value: Markstrom (25% retained) + 2nd Round Pick (62nd overall)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I think when the franchise players come around like McDavid, Bedard, etc, absolutely it's lottery luck. And rarely is it fair.

But a contending team can be built on hitting 2-3 top 10 picks that are core players and draft meaningful contributors with top 3-round picks to supplement.

In other words, it's not McKenna or bust. Doing over our Tkachuk era and not making some of the same mistakes by rushing the rebuild, it's a different picture, and this very well could have been a contending roster.

Yeah a team doesn't necessarily need to draft 1st overall but probably need to hit on a few top 5 picks and top 10 picks. Players like Draisaitl, Barkov, Rantanen, Tkachuk, etc are elite players that weren't 1st overall picks. Rushing the rebuild unfortunately is always possible especially in Canadian markets as we have recently witnessed with Ottawa.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Kent Wilson’s latest article is worth a read.

I’ve been saying this for years.

When your rivals are great, it forces you to be great.

If all you have to do is be better than the Kelly Buchberger Oilers… that’s not impressive.

When a team in your own province has McDavid and Draisaitl, you can’t trot out Huberdeau and Kadri and pretend it’s okay to compete for 9th.

Not when the Oilers have won 7 rounds since 2017.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Hackey

They almost traded Markstrom. Key word ALMOST. It sure seems like ownership or upper management nixed that deal. Which is exactly the type of thing that concerns fans. They tried to sign every single UFA this year and none of them would. So if fans are hesitant with the actual direction it seems quite valid.

This is my concern. They only dealt their UFAs after the players refused to sign for any amount of money. They tried to give Lindholm 9 million a season!!

Fans should be eternally grateful to some of these guys for forcing the teams hand and dealing them.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Oh ho ho my young friend, that's simply not the case. It was much, much longer.

The reality is that bottoming out can lead to success, but it is an excruciatingly long road to get there.

Since 1996, the famous year they went to the finals, until about 2021, when the current version of the team took form, the Panthers had a total of 6 seasons where they cleared the 90 point threshold. 6 years out of 25, most of those were spaced 5-10 years apart.

The reality of the Panthers of the past was a team that didn't do even a little bit to commit to winning. They were happy to simply exist in the league, drawing just enough revenue to keep afloat and maintain the asset for ownership. It was baaaaad, bad bad bad, for a long time here. You could call it self-satisfied abysmal-ness.

I think my point is that the Panthers got good when a new owner came in and fully committed to building a winning team, regardless of the cost. He probably lost some money in the first couple years, but spent it on good management and operations people. That translated to some on-ice success, but it really was impactful in the off-ice stuff to build an actual fanbase and ticket sales. They built a culture and identity with their fans, and now it's an actual thing to be a Florida Panthers fan down here, whereas before it was only for the die-hards.

When I became a fan, I got hooked in because of the high draft picks like Ekblad and Barkov etc. But it still has taken over a decade to get to this point, and really, they only took off recently.

There is no easy road to success, but the one thing I know for sure that gets a team there is good management. I don't know if we have that yet in Conroy, but I'm hopeful that he's at least above average. Treliving had some great qualities and some absolute dog#### qualities as a GM, which makes him average overall, and he was a big reason why a team that drafted well and had a lot of great pieces in place, couldn't get over the hump.

Your team building starts with ownership committed to winning, then you need really good managers to execute a clear vision. Mostly it flows from there...management works on drafting and team building, finance and cap management, community outreach and fan-base building etc.

I think the flames have a lot of those things in place already. I think that ownership is committed to winning, but only on their terms, which could be a problem without a good GM in place. I simply hope that Craig is that guy. He had a good start, but now we need to see him actually build his vision of a team. Fingers crossed...it's going to take some time to be good again.

Sorry I don't look pre 2005 lockout as a good example for teams tanking and rebuilding a winner. Florida had no fans, no money and no cap. Flames were in the same boat, you get no free agents, you lose all your players to rich teams and you just hope you draft a bunch of kids that win it for you before the leave for their big pay cheques.

Since the 05 lockout, the Panthers had 100% a clear 5 year stretch where they bottomed out, got some stars and now are a very good team that hopefully wins the cup in the next 2 weeks. The only exception was the 11/12 season they played very well and made the plyoffs.

[Winsor_Pilates]

The only reason we're even close to a rebuild is because we signed Huberdeau to an 8 year, massive deal that has forced the franchise into the bottom half of the league.

Thankfully Conroy has seemingly now embraced that direction (reluctantly, based on the offers to expiring players) but it was never planned and would never be planned by this organization.
Like some of the posters here, they just don't believe in it and never will.
Unless someone new buys majority ownership of the team, I don't believe it will ever change.
By now you take it of leave it.

[dino7c]

Flames won two division titles before you know whos bailed...2nd overall one year. They were on the right track. Lots of teams lose multiple times in the playoffs before they pull it off.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

The only reason we're even close to a rebuild is because we signed Huberdeau to an 8 year, massive deal that has forced the franchise into the bottom half of the league.

Thankfully Conroy has seemingly now embraced that direction (reluctantly, based on the offers to expiring players) but it was never planned and would never be planned by this organization.
Like some of the posters here, they just don't believe in it and never will.
Unless someone new buys majority ownership of the team, I don't believe it will ever change.
By now you take it of leave it.

Almost all rebuilds aren't planned. Teams put themselves in that situation for various reasons. Terrible management, money issues, sustained success that comes to an end. Whatever the reason, some when they get there embrace it and stay there are build through the draft. Others try to fix it quickly, Flames need to be patient

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames won two division titles before you know whos bailed...2nd overall one year. They were on the right track. Lots of teams lose multiple times in the playoffs before they pull it off.

Regardless of looking back at the last era, you have to look at where we are now.

We have zero stars. We need the draft picks to get our stars. The last era was defined by some excellent value being extracted out of less than ideal draft spost - getting Tkachuk at 6th is excellent work, getting Monahan at 6th was great, and even getting Bennett (what Bennett has turned into) at 4th is far from a disaster.

You know what they didn't get though? MacKinnon, or Barkov, or Draisaitl, or Ekblad, Makar, Hedman, Stamkos etc. The spots that they got to draft from, while they did good - did not give the Flames a good enough opportunity to become a Championship quality team.

The Flames, outside of getting their top-3 picks, did everything as well as could be expected but they could not overcome the skill deficit that they were facing due to a lack of having the opportunity to make Championship-quality picks.

[GFG#1]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I’ve been saying this for years.

When your rivals are great, it forces you to be great.

If all you have to do is be better than the Kelly Buchberger Oilers… that’s not impressive.

When a team in your own province has McDavid and Draisaitl, you can’t trot out Huberdeau and Kadri and pretend it’s okay to compete for 9th.

Not when the Oilers have won 7 rounds since 2017.

I get it to some extent and internally you can say playoff rounds won count, but IMO there are really 2 goals.
1 get into the playoffs
2 Win the cup

As a fan I could care less if they won 7 rounds, they haven't won the cup.
internally for the organization you can look at them as steps, but in another 10 years if the team has won 20-30 playoff rounds and no cups, are they or have they really been great?

You can add a bunch of small goals to the list, like win the division, win the presidents trophy, win the Jennings award, win a round, win two rounds win the conference finals etc. But at the end of the day if you don't win the cup, none of those things really matter. Don't get me wrong a run is great as a fan. I just don't think it makes a team great unless they win a cup or multiple cups.

Anything can happen if you get in, so just get in.
after that anything short of winning the cup is a disappointment.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GFG#1

I get it to some extent and internally you can say playoff rounds won count, but IMO there are really 2 goals.
1 get into the playoffs
2 Win the cup

As a fan I could care less if they won 7 rounds, they haven't won the cup.
internally for the organization you can look at them as steps, but in another 10 years if the team has won 20-30 playoff rounds and no cups, are they or have they really been great?

You can add a bunch of small goals to the list, like win the division, win the presidents trophy, win the Jennings award, win a round, win two rounds win the conference finals etc. But at the end of the day if you don't win the cup, none of those things really matter. Don't get me wrong a run is great as a fan. I just don't think it makes a team great unless they win a cup or multiple cups.

Anything can happen if you get in, so just get in.
after that anything short of winning the cup is a disappointment.

Not really, no.

If you get in but don't have a roster built on star players who are among the absolute best at their positions (most importantly centre and defence), then nothing will happen.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Regardless of looking back at the last era, you have to look at where we are now.

We have zero stars. We need the draft picks to get our stars. The last era was defined by some excellent value being extracted out of less than ideal draft spost - getting Tkachuk at 6th is excellent work, getting Monahan at 6th was great, and even getting Bennett (what Bennett has turned into) at 4th is far from a disaster.

You know what they didn't get though? MacKinnon, or Barkov, or Draisaitl, or Ekblad, Makar, Hedman, Stamkos etc. The spots that they got to draft from, while they did good - did not give the Flames a good enough opportunity to become a Championship quality team.

The Flames, outside of getting their top-3 picks, did everything as well as could be expected but they could not overcome the skill deficit that they were facing due to a lack of having the opportunity to make Championship-quality picks.

Here's the thing...I think they could have if they were patient enough to not try and accelerate the re-build. They really wouldn't have needed a top 3 pick.

Let's play a game where in an alternate universe where they never make the Hamilton, Hamonic, Lazar, or Elliott trades and don't try to push in their chips early.

For the picks they do trade...we have to take a player within 5 selections of our pick, can't change any other picks.

Let's start in 2014 which was the Bennett draft following the only real "rebuild" season which was 13-14 and when their play in the 14-15 season started to accelerate the re-build. At that time you have Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Gio, and Brodie as your "core" and let's look only at the first three rounds.

Traded picks in red

2014:
4 OV: Bennett
34 OV: McDonald
54 OV: Smith
64 OV: Hickey

(Not even going to take the full benefit of hindsight and update those picks to Demko, Montour, and Point).

2015:
15 OV: Barzal
45 OV: Hintz
52 OV: Trenin
53 OV: Andersson
71 OV: Kylington

2016:
6th OV: Tkachuk
35 OV: Kyrou
54 OV: Parsons
56 OV: Dube
66 OV: Fox

2017:
16 OV: Valimaki
47 OV: Formenton
78 OV: Stuart Skinner

2018:
12 OV: Noah Dobson
43 OV: Perunovich
74 OV: Jakub Lauko

The Flames problem is that during a 5 year stretch that should have still firmly been a "rebuild" but weren't because of the fluke 14-15 season changing expectations, they traded away 9 picks in the first three rounds.

If they just keep all those picks we could be looking at this core...and they wouldn't have had a top 3 pick at all.

Center: Monahan, Bennett, Barzal, Hintz, Lauko
Wing: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kyrou, Formenton, Trenin
Defense: Andersson, Kylington, Fox (let's assume he signs in this magical universe), Valimaki, Dobson, Perunovich
Goalie: Skinner

Plus you probably would have moved guys like Gio, Backlund, and Brodie to add even more assets if you just actually committed to a 5 year re-build.

That team has more than enough skill to be a contender and potentially win a cup without the need for a top 3 pick. The key to building any contender though is not trading those top 90 picks for short term help, especially early in a rebuild. You actually need to do the opposite and have a surplus of picks in the top 90 every year for like a 4-5 year stretch, and then that surplus of picks helps you build the depth and skill needed to win.

The Flames re-build didn't fail because of a lack of early picks, it failed because they traded too many picks when they should have still been building the team. Early picks help...but top 3 picks aren't mandatory if you're actually being shrewd and are properly managing your assets.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Here's the thing...I think they could have if they were patient enough to not try and accelerate the re-build. They really wouldn't have needed a top 3 pick.

Let's play a game where in an alternate universe where they never make the Hamilton, Hamonic, Lazar, or Elliott trades and don't try to push in their chips early.

For the picks they do trade...we have to take a player within 5 selections of our pick, can't change any other picks.

Let's start in 2014 which was the Bennett draft following the only real "rebuild" season which was 13-14 and when their play in the 14-15 season started to accelerate the re-build. At that time you have Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, Gio, and Brodie as your "core" and let's look only at the first three rounds.

Traded picks in red

2014:
4 OV: Bennett
34 OV: McDonald
54 OV: Smith
64 OV: Hickey

(Not even going to take the full benefit of hindsight and update those picks to Demko, Montour, and Point).

2015:
15 OV: Barzal
45 OV: Hintz
52 OV: Trenin
53 OV: Andersson
71 OV: Kylington

2016:
6th OV: Tkachuk
35 OV: Kyrou
54 OV: Parsons
56 OV: Dube
66 OV: Fox

2017:
16 OV: Valimaki
47 OV: Formenton
78 OV: Stuart Skinner

2018:
12 OV: Noah Dobson
43 OV: Perunovich
74 OV: Jakub Lauko

The Flames problem is that during a 5 year stretch that should have still firmly been a "rebuild" but weren't because of the fluke 14-15 season changing expectations, they traded away 9 picks in the first three rounds.

If they just keep all those picks we could be looking at this core...and they wouldn't have had a top 3 pick at all.

Center: Monahan, Bennett, Barzal, Hintz, Lauko
Wing: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Kyrou, Formenton, Trenin
Defense: Andersson, Kylington, Fox (let's assume he signs in this magical universe), Valimaki, Dobson, Perunovich
Goalie: Skinner

Plus you probably would have moved guys like Gio, Backlund, and Brodie to add even more assets if you just actually committed to a 5 year re-build.

That team has more than enough skill to be a contender and potentially win a cup without the need for a top 3 pick. The key to building any contender though is just not trading those top 90 picks, for short term help, especially early in a rebuild. You need to have a surplus of picks, and then that surplus of picks helps you build the depth and skill needed to win.

The Flames re-build didn't fail because of a lack of early picks, it failed because they traded too many picks when they should have still been building the team. Early picks help...but top 3 picks aren't mandatory if you're actually being shrewd and are properly managing your assets.

Picks.

Picks Picks Picks Picks Picks

Get Picks. Keep Picks. Make Picks

PICKS

[Jason14h]

It’s also really hard to get a MT at 6 and a JG in the 4th

That’s “Dallas Model” good drafting - but as your showed we then bailed on continuing the process

The problem is banking on the Flames to find another MT and JG in those spots is very low as well

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Regardless of looking back at the last era, you have to look at where we are now.

We have zero stars. We need the draft picks to get our stars. The last era was defined by some excellent value being extracted out of less than ideal draft spost - getting Tkachuk at 6th is excellent work, getting Monahan at 6th was great, and even getting Bennett (what Bennett has turned into) at 4th is far from a disaster.

You know what they didn't get though? MacKinnon, or Barkov, or Draisaitl, or Ekblad, Makar, Hedman, Stamkos etc. The spots that they got to draft from, while they did good - did not give the Flames a good enough opportunity to become a Championship quality team.

The Flames, outside of getting their top-3 picks, did everything as well as could be expected but they could not overcome the skill deficit that they were facing due to a lack of having the opportunity to make Championship-quality picks.

come on now...a lot of you wanted a tear it down to the studs rebuild after the bubble playoff miss

[Paulie Walnuts]

People want to trade picks for Necas and we haven't made 1 selection in our rebuild.

Being patient is important. That would be like trading for Dougie Hamilton at the 2013 draft.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It’s also really hard to get a MT at 6 and a JG in the 4th

That’s “Dallas Model” good drafting - but as your showed we then bailed on continuing the process

The problem is banking on the Flames to find another MT and JG in those spots is very low as well

Well an elite player is never easy to draft...but elite wingers tend to go in that 4-10 range.

Marner was 4th OV, Nylander was an 8th, Rantanen was 10 OV, Tkachuk was 6th, Pastrnak was 25th, Kucherov was 2nd round, Gaudreau was 4th round,

The more picks you have the easier it is to hit though.

If I'm equating the previous rebuild and this rebuild the 2024 season is our 2013 season. (2013 we traded Iginla and Bouwmeester, 2024 we traded Hanifin, Lindholm, and Tanev). I don't want the Flames even thinking about trading a 1st round pick until the 2030 draft...unless its for a top prospect (like if they traded for Cutter Gauthier).

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The Flames re-build didn't fail because of a lack of early picks, it failed because they traded too many picks when they should have still been building the team. Early picks help...but top 3 picks aren't mandatory if you're actually being shrewd and are properly managing your assets.

This all comes back to the impatience in the Canadian markets. Even if the Flames hit on a few draft picks in the next few years and the team has a season where they exceed expectations, it's nearly a guarantee that the organization will go down the same road as that will be the ownership mandate. "We were on the cusp of the playoffs this season. Do whatever it takes to get in next season." That seems to be the Canadian ownership mentality.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Don't forget sending out a 2nd rounder for Lazar. Wasting picks on depth players who never played for us.

The Hamilton trade wasn't even that bad. What sewered us was the Hamonic trade.