How’s Honzek doing these days?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

One can question if that is due to irrational biases in the NHL or not, but I think it's a constant flaw in the various mocks and lists that are assembled, that ignore the NHL trends.

It would be very interesting to look at the various mocks and lists, and see whether they are better or worse than actual draft order at predicting a player's future in the NHL.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think he was a stretch there at all. People overindex on looking at lists and seeing those as being some sort of gospel, but we see the NHL draft always is quite different (except for Bob's list, b/c his list is one where he actually talks to NHL scouts. Honzek was 17 on his list, more reflective of reality).
Honzek hasn't had a great year, but Ritchie is actually a good example of how injuries de-rail a player. He fell last year because of his poor production, as he struggled with a shoulder injury. He's healthy now and his offense is popping. Which is one of the reasons why I would have been fine with the Flames taking him last year, which would have similarly been called a "reach" by many.

Generally what I see in the NHL draft v. Non-Bob lists are:
- D goes higher
- Centres go higher
- Players with size go higher
- Undersized players go lower
- Offensive flawed wingers go lower

One can question if that is due to irrational biases in the NHL or not, but I think it's a constant flaw in the various mocks and lists that are assembled, that ignore the NHL trends.

100% Jiri! Great post!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

Button's top 50 NHL affiliated prospects.

Honzek is not on his list, but three players drafted after Honzek are, including the 6th, 7th and 8th best.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/cutter-gauthi...list-1.2079455

edit, actually, there are 7 players drafted after Honzek on the list. Barlow, Cowan, Heidt and Brindley as well as ASP, Ritchie and Perreault

Passing on Perreault stings but given his passport I kind of understand although Canadian teams are going to have to get used to seeing a lot of the best young players coming from the USA and will have to deal with it. By most accounts Barlow projected to more of a middle six player like Honzek. I'm not expecting Honzek to be a top line or franchise player but if he turns into a Backlund type of forward there's still a lot of value in that. This just illustrates why the Flames need bottom out more and start drafting in the top 10 so we aren't having these types of debates about middle six prospects taken in the 1st round.

[Enoch Root]

There is real reason for concern about US born players. But when their dad was an NHLer from Canada, I am less concerned. He would still have lots of family in Canada, and it seems unlikely that he would have a U.S.A. attitude.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It would be very interesting to look at the various mocks and lists, and see whether they are better or worse than actual draft order at predicting a player's future in the NHL.

oh yeah I'd love to see that. And you would want to compare NHL success rates v. the lists from probably the top guys: Button, Pronman, Hockey News, Future Considerations, etc. See who ultimately has the highest hit rates.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Passing on Perreault stings but given his passport I kind of understand although Canadian teams are going to have to get used to seeing a lot of the best young players coming from the USA and will have to deal with it. By most accounts Barlow projected to more of a middle six player like Honzek. I'm not expecting Honzek to be a top line or franchise player but if he turns into a Backlund type of forward there's still a lot of value in that. This just illustrates why the Flames need bottom out more and start drafting in the top 10 so we aren't having these types of debates about middle six prospects taken in the 1st round.

Sandin-Pellika, Perrault, Musty, Cowan, and Nadeau are having monster seasons and would have all been great picks in hindsight. All of them taken after Honzek.

The only first round picks who are looking more disappointing than Honzek are Charlie Stramel, taken 21st overall by Minnesota, Matthew Wood, taken 15th overall by Nashville, and Eduard Sale, taken 20th overall by Seattle. Most players are doing very well. Looking like a great first round overall.

Historically speaking, prospects who have a regression of more than 0.20 points per game in the CHL almost never make it as NHL regulars. I don't know if Honzek's extensive injury history helps or hurts his chances in this regard.

Lipinski has nearly the same production, is a lot heavier, can play center, is more durable, is younger, and more physical than Honzek. In a vacuum, without context, he's looking like a better prospect than Honzek.

I was vocally disappointed with this pick when it was made. Honzek has been well below my already pessimistic expectations.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Whew good thing you ended that post with a good old fashioned premature “told ya so”

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

D+8 months is an impressively short window to write off a consensus first round prospect, let alone proclaiming the less talented Lipinski surpassing him in NHL potential.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

D+8 months is an impressively short window to write off a consensus first round prospect, let alone proclaiming the less talented Lipinski surpassing him in NHL potential.

Especially when Honzek is coming off a serious injury, and still the highest points per game on his team; the only Giant over a point per game.

Also, not sure the age thing is a big issue 1qqaaz, as Honzek is a whopping 20 days older.

[mrdonkey]

It’s not like it’s a secret that Honzek could be considered a reach with who was still on the board. Hardly surprising that it hasn’t paid off so far.

Still plenty of runway left, but let’s not act like this is all hindsight. It was a questionable pick.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

It’s not like it was a secret that Honzek could be a reach. Hardly surprising that it hasn’t paid off so far.

Still plenty of runway left, but let’s not act like this is all hindsight. It was a questionable pick.

It really wasn't a questionable pick or a reach. He was 17 on McKenzie’s list

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

It’s not like it was a secret that Honzek could be a reach. Hardly surprising that it hasn’t paid off so far.

Still plenty of runway left, but let’s not act like this is all hindsight. It was a questionable pick.

Really? News to me.

NHL Central Scouting: 9th (amongst NA skaters)
The Hockey Writers (Horn): 19th
The Hockey Writers (Baracchini): 35th
FC Hockey: 42nd
TSN/McKenzie: 19th
Elite Prospects: 22nd
TSN/Craig Button: 22nd
Dobber Prospects: 32nd
Sportsnet: 13th

But please, go on..

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

It really wasn't a questionable pick or a reach. He was 17 on McKenzie’s list

There were consensus better players still on the board when the Flames picked. That would make it a reach. Not like a Jankowski level of reach, but certainly questionable given his low upside, the strength of the draft, and the Flames having not much in the cupboard. It was a head scratcher to play for the bunt in that situation, and it’s coming back to bite them.

In fact when you look at the Flames’ last few drafts, outside of Zary there’s been a lot of whiffs. Starting to question if the Flames’ drafting is really all that it’s made out to be around here.

[Samonadreau]

Its ok to say both of

Its been a bit of a disappointing D+1 Season.

and

Its way too early to say he's a bust for a 1st rounder, especially starting the season with an injury.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Coronato had the same PPG from his freshman to sophomore years.

Were people also catastrophizing then?

Looks like he'll be alright from his pro rookie season.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Coronato had the same PPG from his freshman to sophomore years.

Were people also catastrophizing then?

Of course, but they were going for the other catastrophe. The ‘he's a damn Yankee and will never ever sign here’ catastrophe.

Catastrophizing works best when you pick a lane.

[Beninho]

On a bad team with a bad injury to start the year. His skillset is very unique if he puts it all together. He has not even filled out his frame yet

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

There were consensus better players still on the board when the Flames picked. That would make it a reach. Not like a Jankowski level of reach, but certainly questionable given his low upside, the strength of the draft, and the Flames having not much in the cupboard. It was a head scratcher to play for the bunt in that situation, and it’s coming back to bite them.

In fact when you look at the Flames’ last few drafts, outside of Zary there’s been a lot of whiffs. Starting to question if the Flames’ drafting is really all that it’s made out to be around here.

The only the consensus list is Bobs
Because he actually talks to nhl scouts
So if he says he was 17…that’s the reality not random blogs

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

There were consensus better players still on the board when the Flames picked. That would make it a reach. Not like a Jankowski level of reach, but certainly questionable given his low upside, the strength of the draft, and the Flames having not much in the cupboard. It was a head scratcher to play for the bunt in that situation, and it’s coming back to bite them.

In fact when you look at the Flames’ last few drafts, outside of Zary there’s been a lot of whiffs. Starting to question if the Flames’ drafting is really all that it’s made out to be around here.

So you are moving the goalposts on a reach and I don’t think Honzek was a bunt play for the Flames. I think Conroy legitimately thinks he had the highest upside of who was left.

My bigger worry is that Conroy is inserting himself into the drafting even though the system was working and they’ll start prioritizing size over everything else.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/flames-...-draft/sn-amp/

[Bingo]

Imagine twisting and turning to hold a negative opinion about a 1st round pick that your team selected 8 months ago.

Fun!