[GDT] Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames 8:00pm TV: SNW/E/O, CBC, TVAS2 - RADIO SN960

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The problem with Darryl is that he still thinks it’s a 3-2 league when it’s a 4-3 league. Teams are scoring over 3 goals a game this season.

Why did this get a "This post is terrible" thanks?

Erick is accurate that you can't really rely on winning games 3-2 anymore since the goals per game average is now above 6.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1599123807301558273

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Why did this get a "This post is terrible" thanks?

Erick is accurate that you can't really rely on winning games 3-2 anymore since the goals per game average is now above 6.

I just assume he was agreeing with me seeing that it is a 4-3 league this season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

You destroy the development of your prospects by giving them no opportunity. The fourth line faces the easiest competition every night — it figures that it'd be the natural place to ease a kid into the league.

Zary is playing his first full NHL season.
Pelletier is two months into his second.

There were both drafted out of the covid - lack of games - era.

You're being massively over dramatic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Being good in the room is one of the most overrated things in the league. The room doesn't win games the product on the ice does. Lucic provides nothing and he can be good in the room from the press box.

How many years did you play in the show?

Because if the answer is zero you literally don't have a leg to stand on with those comments.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You're being massively over dramatic.

The whole board is lately.

[Kasi]

Other teams have drafted players in that era and have given them chances.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

It just seems like a cherry picked stat where Lucic is still bad. Amongst 4th liners in that stat category, he would be well below average. Notable names below him in that category that I would take over him would include - Kaprizov, Terry, Nugent Hopkins, Hughes, Stutzle, Crosby, Suzuki, Bennett, Berniers, caulfield, Schwartz, Duchene, guentzel, forsberg, kyrou, Tkachuk, Konecny.

Even on the Flames he is the worst 4th liner in that category, the only players worse than him are Kadri, Dube, Mangiapane.

Nothing cherry picked about it. First stat I went to.

4th liners generally don't score. none of them. So you look to what they give up. You can't look at actual goals against only or you may get some bad luck. So you go to expected goals against.

He's 287th

With 400+ players he's roughly 9th on an average NHL team.

Hell on the Flames he's 9th.

That's fine for a fourth liner in my mind.

[jlh2640]

My expectations couldn’t be any lower now. Meh.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

They issue is Sutter plays the 4th line more at the expense go the top two lines. If he was limiting them to 5-6 minutes a game it might be ok not to have prospects or players who provide offensive punch. When they get the amount of ice time they get they sort of have to produce something.

Even worse is Sutter doesn't play match ups and many times the pluggers get caught against the other teams top player's.

That's not actually true ... he plays the fourth line similar, but the third and second lines more than most NHL teams which robs time from the first trio

[Backstop]

While Phillips is likely not the hill to die on it is critical that players in our system see advancement. If our system gives players the perception that we don't promote from within we increase our chances of losing good prospects we hope to sign in the future. Currently the media noise gives the impression we are poor at promoting, would be curious what the perception is from our guys on the farm.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Other teams have drafted players in that era and have given them chances.

Pelletier's draft

Only 14 total games played from players taken after him in the draft
Only two players past 50 games played in that draft after spot 15

Hardly an issue.

Zary's draft

Only 30 total games played from players taken after him in the draft
Only three players past 50 games played in that draft after spot 15

You honestly see major issues with this?

Literally irrelevant in the course of an NHL career.

the drama on this site ... I may honestly need a break or a 3 game win streak

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Backstop

While Phillips is likely not the hill to die on it is critical that players in our system see advancement. If our system gives players the perception that we don't promote from within we increase our chances of losing good prospects we hope to sign in the future. Currently the media noise gives the impression we are poor at promoting, would be curious what the perception is from our guys on the farm.

I just wouldn't take media conferences to make my opinion on the organization sees or communicates with their young players.

[Backstop]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I just wouldn't take media conferences to make my opinion on the organization sees or communicates with their young players.

What we see and hear vs the reality in the organization is going to be very different agreed, unfortunately we are limited to the info we can access.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Backstop

What we see and hear vs the reality in the organization is going to be very different agreed, unfortunately we are limited to the info we can access.

Maybe those that consume said access (not you in particular) should not over react to it.

[Backstop]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Maybe those that consume said access (not you in particular) should not over react to it.

Agreed but fans are passionate, it's emotional and when passion and emotion are present in large quantities reactions become inflamed. While the ranting does get a bit loud at times I still appreciate the passion even the psycho fans display for our team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Backstop

Agreed but fans are passionate, it's emotional and when passion and emotion are present in large quantities reactions become inflamed. While the ranting does get a bit loud at times I still appreciate the passion even the psycho fans display for our team.

For sure.

but when it goes over the top I just have to push back. Can't stand it.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Nothing cherry picked about it. First stat I went to.

4th liners generally don't score. none of them. So you look to what they give up. You can't look at actual goals against only or you may get some bad luck. So you go to expected goals against.

He's 287th

With 400+ players he's roughly 9th on an average NHL team.

Hell on the Flames he's 9th.

That's fine for a fourth liner in my mind.

He's maybe fine for a 4th liner if

1) the Flames had an elite top line doing the lions share of the team's scoring, or,

2) the Flames are fine with being mediocre and/or chasing a high draft pick

Since the Flames are neither of these, they need a better 4th line than what they currently have. After all, they're a score-by-committee team now that Johnny and Chucky are gone.

Simply saying "4th liners basically don't score" is a very flawed argument. To fully assess a player's worth to a team, you have to look at everything the player does and doesn't do, and make a comprehensive assessment of what the player brings to the table. If the player contributes nothing offensively, he needs to be above average (I'd argue way above average) in terms of helping his team keep the puck out of the net.

Among forwards with at least 200 5v5 minutes, he's 219th place among 305 forwards in xGA/60. That's below average. Not nearly good enough. By comparison, Lewis is in 6th place in the entire NHL in that category. So you could make a good case that Lewis is suitable for the 4th line, but not really in the case of Lucic. As for Ritchie, he just barely misses the 200 minute threshold but if you overlook that, he's 144th in that category, about the league average. Which is fine if he's chipping in offensively. He did earlier this year, but only has 2 points in the past month.

Sitting Ritchie makes sense at this point, but Lucic and Rooney are not guys I would slot ahead of him.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Zary is playing his first full NHL season.
Pelletier is two months into his second.

There were both drafted out of the covid - lack of games - era.

You're being massively over dramatic.

Pelletier is one of four players from the 2019 first round who has not played an NHL game. Pretty sure all the other guys from that draft year came out of the covid era, too.

If you think I'm being over-dramatic ... well, I'm not. Dude wants a shot, bad, and he's earned it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

He's maybe fine for a 4th liner if

1) the Flames had an elite top line doing the lions share of the team's scoring, or,

2) the Flames are fine with being mediocre and/or chasing a high draft pick

Since the Flames are neither of these, they need a better 4th line than what they currently have. After all, they're a score-by-committee team now that Johnny and Chucky are gone.

Simply saying "4th liners basically don't score" is a very flawed argument. To fully assess a player's worth to a team, you have to look at everything the player does and doesn't do, and make a comprehensive assessment of what the player brings to the table. If the player contributes nothing offensively, he needs to be above average (I'd argue way above average) in terms of helping his team keep the puck out of the net.

Among forwards with at least 200 5v5 minutes, he's 219th place among 305 forwards in xGA/60. That's below average. Not nearly good enough. By comparison, Lewis is in 6th place in the entire NHL in that category. So you could make a good case that Lewis is suitable for the 4th line, but not really in the case of Lucic. As for Ritchie, he just barely misses the 200 minute threshold but if you overlook that, he's 144th in that category, about the league average. Which is fine if he's chipping in offensively. He did earlier this year, but only has 2 points in the past month.

Sitting Ritchie makes sense at this point, but Lucic and Rooney are not guys I would slot ahead of him.

The cap world has created cheap fourth lines that generally don't score.

That's not a Flames issue.

Personally I wouldn't cut off the 5 on 5 minutes at 200. That eliminates the entire 4th line around the league and literally puts the top 9 forwards on every team against Lucic in a comparison.

I chose 100 minutes because it gave you 405 players or 12.65 per team.

And yes nothing bad happens when Lewis is on the ice for sure, but he earned most of that time playing with Backlund this year. Since he's moved down he seems to have fallen under Sutter's shortened bench strategy (which is a good one)