If You Could Undo One Treliving Move & Replace it With A Similar One

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jore

It's true that the team needed a top 6 FWD, but how does hockey ops settle on Neal? Completely abysmal pro scouting.

However, how many people called it abysmal at the time? Sure there were a couple, including some weird due that was obsessed about Neal and has since vanished.
And there were some concerns about the salary.
But most saw him as a really consistent 20 goal scorer. Few predicted how badly he would play.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The $2 million in dead hit last two years longer than Lucic's actual contract.

When you look at it like 8 years of minor cap penalty vs 6 years of major cap penalty I lean towards the 8 years.

Lucic scored 1 goal in his last 40ish regular season and playoff games last season. He scored a bit earlier in the year but he was also getting ice time with Mangiapane and PP time. He likely wouldn't have gotten those opportunities if the Flames weren't trying to salvage the contract IMO.

I would make the argument that Lucic's on-ice play was worth about a million dollars give or take.

I don't think the intangibles of Lucic's leadership and face punching are worth millions per year. Oilers fans have tried to make the same argument with Duncan Keith and I don't buy it there either.

If Treliving gets out of the Lucic contract this summer, that would be a great move for the Flames. And at the end of the day Treliving hasn't made a lot of blunders. UFA signings are iffy at the best of times and if those are his biggest mistakes thats a good spot to be in.

I must be missing something.

Six years?

He's played three in Calgary and has 1 year left.

That's 4 years of a useful player that's overpaid vs 8 years of a lesser cap hit and no value at all.

And I think he earned his third line role for the first two, slid this year. Don't think multiple coaches were trying to salvage a contract.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ Stone had been given permission to talk to teams. But he refused to talk to Calgary (and the Jets and one other team). The only team he went to to talk to was Vegas. No one had any confidence he’d extend here. It would have been a huge price for a rental.

Is there a source for this? Interesting if true.

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

However, how many people called it abysmal at the time? Sure there were a couple, including some weird due that was obsessed about Neal and has since vanished.
And there were some concerns about the salary.
But most saw him as a really consistent 20 goal scorer. Few predicted how badly he would play.

Yea the CP mood was certainly triumphant, but you'd hope that hockey ops do better at scouting and evaluating than fans. Just dug through the Neal signing thread, apparently it came down to Neal and Maroon. Seeing the trajectories of the two careers since is pretty wild.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jore

Is there a source for this? Interesting if true.



Yea the CP mood was certainly triumphant, but you'd hope that hockey ops do better at scouting and evaluating than fans. Just dug through the Neal signing thread, apparently it came down to Neal and Maroon. Seeing the trajectories of the two careers since is pretty wild.

And I don't disagree that the pro scouting hasn't been great, though may be improving. But the Brouwer, Neal, Hamonic acquisitions all point to a gap.
And I'd love to know how analytics were considered in those decisions and if they supported the decisions or challenged the decisions, and were ignored.

[bubbsy]

In my view, the coaching would be the primary area. It's sad that this core could possibly only have 1 sutter year, rather than this being a stepping stone/learning year, should some key pieces end up leaving.

[tkflames]

Gaudreau on a 7 year contract and Monahan on a 6 year contract instead of the opposite.

We would be reloading this summer with 6M in cap space.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jore

Is there a source for this? Interesting if true.

Part of it’s here. https://thehockeywriters.com/mark-st...trade-details/

That story confirms that the Flames, Jets and Panthers all couldn’t get any kind of discussion of an extension going but that the Vegas trade was all contingent on Stone agreeing to an extension with Vegas and they spent all. Night on the phone with him. It’s pretty clear he chose his landing spot by doing that. And drove Vega’s price down.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The $2 million in dead hit last two years longer than Lucic's actual contract.

When you look at it like 8 years of minor cap penalty vs 6 years of major cap penalty I lean towards the 8 years.

I'm not sure how it was ever 6 years of major cap penalty. Neal's contract was 5 years. He played a year. There was 4 more years left when traded. Lucic had 4 years left on his contract. So surely the comparison has to be, at worst:

2M dead cap for 8 years vs 5.25M Lucic for 4 years

But the dead cap is just that. At minimum you need to fill that spot with a league minimum roster player, and what Lucic had brought to the table over the current three years he has been here, he was at least filling in for a 1.5M veteran fourth liner that they would have had to sign if they bought out Neal. So now it looks closer to:

3.5M dead cap and roster player for 4 years, 2M dead cap for 4 years vs 5.25M Lucic for 4 years

But then the Flames got a third round pick.

So now:

3.5M dead cap and roster player for 4 years, 2M dead cap for 4 years vs 5.25M Lucic for 4 years and a third round pick.

But Lucic hasn't even played his fourth year, and we don't know what will happen yet. So potentially:

3.5M dead cap and roster player for 3 years, 2M dead cap for 5 years vs 5.25M Lucic for 3 years and a third round pick.

Becomes pretty obvious the trade worked out much better than a buyout. The signing sucked of course.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Gaudreau on a 7 year contract and Monahan on a 6 year contract instead of the opposite.

We would be reloading this summer with 6M in cap space.

It's not like those contracts were pulled out of thin air. Each player wanted to reach the leverage of UFA at a time when their age allowed them to cash in. Johnny was older than Monny when he started paying, so needed a shorter term.

The cost of a longer term for Johnny (which would have put himself in a way worse position, age wise, when he hit UFA) would have been exorbitant. Which is why thet settled on the 6 years.