[Poll Request] Monahan Off-Season Trade Value (or negative value)

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

WTF? Who is talking about Monahan being “a fair value at $6.35M”? Literally no one has said that. Are you the real Theo?

Lol... over your head. Attacking one point because you lost, ignoring the content

Typical lawyer

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Lol... over your head. Attacking one point because you lost, ignoring the content

Typical lawyer

You ARE Theo!!

As for content:
A. I’m no Monahan “fanboy”. I would like him traded. Retained if necessary.
B. That said, I will debate criticisms that I think are off base.
C. Nothing you said has anything to do with what was actually being discussed.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You ARE Theo!!



As for content:

A. I’m no Monahan “fanboy”. I would like him traded. Retained if necessary.

B. That said, I will debate criticisms that I think are off base.

C. Nothing you said has anything to do with what was actually being discussed.

Lol. Focus on username when you got nothing

Gotta rely on lawyer skillz to bridge the gap I guess

[timbit]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Lol... over your head. Attacking one point because you lost, ignoring the content

Typical lawyer

A cursory overview.

His content, over the years, dwarfs your feeble attempts.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by timbit

A cursory overview.



His content, over the years, dwarfs your feeble attempts.

Am I supposed to give a #### what you think?

[timbit]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Am I supposed to give a #### what you think?

Nope.

I suspect you will continue to embarrass yourself.

You’re good at it.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Monahan has the lowest HDCA/60 of any regular on the roster. I am not going to sit here and say that’s he’s had a strong season but there is no denying he has been terribly unlucky. You factor that in with not only his but his linemates complete inability to finish this year and we find ourselves having this conversation. He has absolutely zero confidence currently.

The team is playing game #60 tomorrow. At what point do we call it? You could call it luck for a game or two or even three, but game #60? Or 650 games for Monahan's career. Has he ever been a defensive gem? Even in his high scoring years he still gives up a lot.

In terms of his linemates lack of finish, obviously he'd probably like to play with better finishers because he has had some slick feeds this season. But he's also the goal scorer of his line here not playing against shut down lines anymore. For what he's paid, he should step up, own it and start making a difference for himself.

I give him credit though, I do see urgency and I do see the effort. He's not struggling because of his work ethic that's for sure. I just don't think he has the ability. He's never had a ton of weapons in his arsenal. Not enough creativity, dimensions or deception to his game.

His best shot at this point in his career is to fight through traffic, tip pucks, screen goaltenders with his size and bang home rebounds. We haven't seen enough of that from him this season, way too much perimeter work. He also has the added benefit of playing on an elite possession team that asks their defensemen to direct a lot of pucks to the net, so there's no reason for him not to get more goals if he just played in the guts of the game like Tkachuk use to back in his 3M line days.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That's just a bunch of made-up assumptions on your part.

The second bold isn't true. And as I said in the prior post, the difference between all the players' goals against is minimal. It's the goals for where his delta is huge

Yes, I agree, his goals differential is absolutely dreadful, all the more reason for him to take care of his end first. Heck, Darryl just benched his line a few games ago because he couldn't trust them not to give up more.

Also, the bold is absolutely true. He's given up the most 5 on 5 goals this season among all forwards. Look it up. He's only behind 4 others and they play defense. If you're counting all the other goals like 3 on 3, 4 on 4 and etc, I don't count those because not all players play in those situations, so judging them based on their 5 on 5 play is fair.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That's the thing.

Monahan's goals against are right in the pack with the other 9 forwards that have played the full season. the total range of even strength goals against between the 10 forwards is 25 to 36 (Gaudreau 36, Monahan and Lindholm at 33)

The difference is with goals for - the range for those same 10 players is 19 to 81 (Monahan and Dube at 19).

His -16 isn't because he's terrible defensively, it's because he and Dube have scored an almost impossibly low amount.

This is why +/- gets such a bad reputation, because people use it in the context of defense only. At it's rawest form, it's basically goal differential which is important because at its best, it's a great effectiveness stat. I'd much rather have my players on the plus side than the minus.

Anyway you slice it, if Monahan wants to play higher up the line up, then his goals allowed has to go down because if he isn't scoring, then he better defend up to par. But his 5 on 5 goal differential reads as 18 GF vs 29 GA. Not a good ratio for a team as good as the Flames are this season. Maybe that ratio would fly on a bad team, but not a division leading Darryl Sutter team with aspirations of the Stanley Cup.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Yes, I agree, his goals differential is absolutely dreadful, all the more reason for him to take care of his end first. Heck, Darryl just benched his line a few games ago because he couldn't trust them not to give up more.

Also, the bold is absolutely true. He's given up the most 5 on 5 goals this season among all forwards. Look it up. He's only behind 4 others and they play defense. If you're counting all the other goals like 3 on 3, 4 on 4 and etc, I don't count those because not all players play in those situations, so judging them based on their 5 on 5 play is fair.

Monahan has had 34 ES GA. So does Lindholm. Tkachuk has 35 ES GA. Gaudreau has 38. A bunch of players are in and around that number. I suspect the difference between the 5 on 5 numbers and other ES combinations are negligible. Toffoli has 40 over the year, 9 as a Flame (in 14 games).

Obviously there are differences in minutes, opponents (depending on line matching) etc, but it’s not like there’s some vast gulf.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

This is why +/- gets such a bad reputation, because people use it in the context of defense only. At it's rawest form, it's basically goal differential which is important because at its best, it's a great effectiveness stat. I'd much rather have my players on the plus side than the minus.

Anyway you slice it, if Monahan wants to play higher up the line up, then his goals allowed has to go down because if he isn't scoring, then he better defend up to par. But his 5 on 5 goal differential reads as 18 GF vs 29 GA. Not a good ratio for a team as good as the Flames are this season. Maybe that ratio would fly on a bad team, but not a division leading Darryl Sutter team with aspirations of the Stanley Cup.

But even there, when you break it down further, there’s a big difference when he switches linemates, He’s positive with Toffoli or Mangiapane, negative with Lucic and Dube (unless one of the first two were part of the equation).

[The Cobra]

Regardless of all the stats, two things are evident to me. Monny is no longer a very good hockey player, because of injuries. And two, he plays better with better line mates like everyone else in the world. He, of course, doesn't deserve better line mates because then those line mates play worse.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Regardless of all the stats, two things are evident to me. Monny is no longer a very good hockey player, because of injuries. And two, he plays better with better line mates like everyone else in the world. He, of course, doesn't deserve better line mates because then those line mates play worse.

The stats don’t really bear out the latter assertion though. Mangiapane and Toffoli’s advanced stats were the same or better in those short stints. Small sample size for Toffoli on any line combo, but Mangiapane went through a dry spell afterwards, until he found his groove in Feb.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Sure, in the game before last he made a great stick lift and takeaway, stole the puck and started a play up ice. Hrudey mentioned it. He’s had a very good stick all year as far as deflecting passes and closing lanes goes.

My point is you can’t point to plus minus for a guy who, along with his linemate, has a very positive CF% accompanied by horrible shot percentage and say “that person is bad defensively”. Imagine if Monahan and Dube has even a normal shooting percentage. Those would be positive goals for, which immediately subtract from the goals against. Let’s say only 5 more goals each. That’s 10 off the minus and 10 onto the plus. All without changing a single defensive play.

In short, don’t show me plus minus, show me a series of bad defensive plays.

Do you think James Neal was a good defender? I can show you a time he a did a great defensive play

Cherry picking a little moment that Monahan did a good play in a recent game is a horrible argument.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...monahse01.html

Monahan is playing sheltered minutes against opposing teams 3rd lines mostly with offensive zone starts and still gets overwhelmed by mediocre opposition.

Your rose coloured glasses on fan favourites are blinding you from reality that Monahan has regressed heavily on all aspects of his game.

Also, WTF are you talking about in terms of his CF% being good? He's mostly playing in offensive zone on a team near the top of the standings 53% even strength is not good.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/

On the team he's at the bottom even strength for CF% for forwards

Only Tyler Pitlick, Milan Lucic, Trevor Lewis and Brad Richardson are worse.

Brett Richie's CF% is better then Monahan. Let that sink in.

[GioforPM]

53% is good no matter what line you are on. The fact there’s guys with even better is not a detriment - it’s a team positive. And it certainly doesn’t mean he’s being “overwhelmed”. It means the opposite. And zone starts don’t tell a complete story either - you think coaches can’t change lines? The last goal scored against his line I can recall was by Ovechkin.

Again, not supporting him in this argument because he’s a fan favorite. Just posting back at the made up “terrible defensive player” argument based originally on plus minus stats.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

53% is good no matter what line you are on. The fact there’s guys with even better is not a detriment - it’s a team positive. And it certainly doesn’t mean he’s being “overwhelmed”. It means the opposite. And zone starts don’t tell a complete story either - you think coaches can’t change lines? The last goal scored against his line I can recall was by Ovechkin.

Again, not supporting him in this argument because he’s a fan favorite. Just posting back at the made up “terrible defensive player” argument based originally on plus minus stats.

Monahan was a -2 in the Washington game...that was 4 games ago.

He also has 0 points in those 4 games and was on the ice for 0 goals for...in other words, net -2 for 4 games.

53% is not good on a team so high in the standings.

Panthers have 0 regular players under 50% just to compare.

Maxim Mamin, the worst CF% on the Panthers team with more then 10 games played is higher then Monahans...

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/FLA/


That's not good no matter how you try to sugar coat it. Not atrociously bad vs atrociously bad...is still bad.

[GioforPM]

Yes, Monahan was minus 2 in the Caps game which goes to show how +/- is flawed. Since one of those goals was a super bad giveaway by Lucic that had nothing to do with Monahan.

53% means he’s not being “overwhelmed”, which was the claim. And the Panthers having none just means they also have a good team.

Tell me - is Trevor Lewis a good defensive player?

[Bingo]

I don't see a lot of "but but but Monahan is great!" in this topic.

Just those that want to believe he's the worst player to ever skate in the league (hyperbole) vs those that are suggesting he's not a complete trainwreck.

You'd think it would be easier to find common ground.

His defensive numbers aren't bad compared to his teammates, that's been demonstrated, but his finishing lacks (with Dube's as well) to the extent that he's not scoring enough to stay positive.

Then you can debate on why ... his hands are gone (injury)? his confidence is gone? he's been unlucky?

I think it's 80% that's he's broken offensively, and 20% unlucky, but that's just my opinion.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Monahan was a -2 in the Washington game...that was 4 games ago.

He also has 0 points in those 4 games and was on the ice for 0 goals for...in other words, net -2 for 4 games.

53% is not good on a team so high in the standings.

Panthers have 0 regular players under 50% just to compare.

Maxim Mamin, the worst CF% on the Panthers team with more then 10 games played is higher then Monahans...

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/FLA/


That's not good no matter how you try to sugar coat it. Not atrociously bad vs atrociously bad...is still bad.

This is what relative stats are made for - normalizing performance within the same team.

Monahan as a whole this season hasn't been good, no arguing that. But I think there is an argument to be made that he was never going to succeed playing a 4th line role a lot of the year.

Corsi For Relative: -3.65 (11th)
High Danger Corsi Relative: -1.94 (10th)
xGF: -0.48 (11TH)
xGA: 0.08 (6th)
xGF%: -5.30 (9th)

So he hasn't been good overall, but defensively he's actually been okay and has the 6th best defensive measure. He's struggled to generate offense.

One thing that has stood out to me though are the line splits for Monahan.

Monahan has played on 7 line combinations for more than 40 minutes this year, and there is a stark divide between the 4 "Good" Combinations and the 3 "Bad" Combinations.

Dube-Monahan-Lucic: TOI-107, xGF: 59.9% (Good)
Dube-Monahan-Pitlick: TOI-67, xGF: 59.9% (Good)
Dube-Monahan-Ritchie: TOI-45, xGF: 67.9% (Good)
Mangiapane-Monahan-Coleman: TOI-43, xGF: 56.0% (Good)

Lucic-Monahan-Lewis: TOI-83, xGF: 48.5% (Bad)
Lucic-Monahan-Toffoli: TOI-57, xGF: 37.4% (Bad)
Richardson-Monahan-Lewis: TOI-44, xGF: 31.1% (Bad)

Play Monahan with other somewhat skilled players, and at least one guy that can skate pretty well, and they've had good numbers as a line.

Play Monahan with two other wingers who are also poor skaters...and it's ugly.

Honestly the team needs to make sure they are playing Monahan with quicker wingers that can cover some of his skating deficiencies. Playing with other slow skaters is not going to end well.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Play Monahan with other somewhat skilled players, and at least one guy that can skate pretty well, and they've had good numbers as a line.

Play Monahan with two other wingers who are also poor skaters...and it's ugly.

Honestly the team needs to make sure they are playing Monahan with quicker wingers that can cover some of his skating deficiencies. Playing with other slow skaters is not going to end well.

Good post. And agree on all of it.

But I think they have tried that and are maybe giving up on it given the lack of tangible results and the promise of improvement by Ruzicka.