New Look Flames - Thoughts on the roster ahead of camp

[flames_fan_down_under]

I like the Coleman signing a lot. I think he will provide more energy up front, and whatever line he is on make them a more accountable group defensively.

This team will struggle to score goals. There will be little supplemental offense from the defense, which seems obvious.

The additions of Gudranson, Richardson, Lewis and Zadorov don't really move the needle much for this team. I like the idea of a team that doesn't get pushed around, but what I really like is a team with speed, with multiple lines that can generate off the rush, which this team will likely not be able to do.

Basically it's up to the usual suspects to prove me wrong and show me that they can compete at a consistently high level for the bulk of the season. Hoping to see much more from Tkachuk this year, which should be possible considering it's a contract year.

[flambers]

As others have mentioned Flames have key areas of concern

1) Flames will struggle to generate offense (should be in the bottom 10)

2) Defense, they have added but they are all defensive type players. Can the defense move the puck quick enough to be a quick style of play....

3) Back up goalie, their backup will need to play well. Its a risk for sure

[EVERLAST]

Regardless of the lack of change on the roster my hopes are to see a new narrative being practiced on and off the ice.
I'm used to watching a team panic, quit and fold.

With Sutter , Muller, Huska and MacLean I'm hoping to see that change.

The players brought in have won, had success in a healthy culture and I hope this translates into something positive here.

I like that were bigger and meaner but let's hope we can be disciplined while we play with this new pace (urgency)( GAF meter) we need to be playing with.

I don't want to hear EVER!!!! That "we thought it would be easier "!!!

Hearing that crap from Lindholm at the end of the year was pretty telling.

My expectations are high. I expect these guys to at the very least compete for 60 minutes win or lose.

Just show me a freaking desire to be better and I'll be happy.

No more it's only the Sens and not even try ....points are Points fellas......and I'm not talking about personal achievements in each players stats, bonuses etc.

Win as a team or do nothing. No passengers.

Go Flames Go. Unfinished business.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Sandman

All this talk about the offence from the D takes me back to the 2014(?) Team USA WJC Summer Showcase. The Defensemen there included Charlie McAvoy, Zach Werenski, Tony DeAngelo, Brandon Carlo, and Will Butcher-but the scouts came to see Noah Hanifin, and they raved about him as if he was a man amongst boys. It would be great if Sutter could find some way of getting him to fulfill that potential.

I agree, but Sutter's style is more preventing goals than scoring them. I think Andersson is likely the best choice as a PP QB that we have.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I agree, but Sutter's style is more preventing goals than scoring them. I think Andersson is likely the best choice as a PP QB that we have.

I hope we see Hanifin on PP1, and Andersson on PP2.

Tkachuk - Monahan - Gaudreau
Hanifin - Lindholm

Hanifin are Markstrom are two huge keys to the team for me this year. Can they both completely own their roles on the team? Markstrom needs to be a top-5 goalie, and Hanifin needs to take the reins as the #1 defenceman on the team.

[BigFlameDog]

I believe a full season with the coach and coaching staff alone gets them in the playoffs with the exact same roster as last year. Ward was terrible and dragged the team into the gutter.

With the changes I think they are going to surprise a lot of naysayers who underestimate the impact of said crap coaching combined with Covid issues. By December they will be on board and the "I always said" stuff will be in high gear.

Gio is exactly where he needs to be.

[ricardodw]

Where does Markstrom need to improve to?

Last year he provided the Flames with 23 quality starts. The league leaders in quality starts were MAF, Varlamov, Grubauer with 26, Hellebuyck had 25 and Jarry and Vasilevskiy had 24.

He was 7th in Quality starts in the league last year. How good is expected to be this year?

In 2019-20 he had 25 QS, tied for 9/10 in the league.

In 2018-19 he has 34 QS tied for 5/8.


Last year was not that much an off year for Markstrom. A 10% improvement would make it a career year for him.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Where does Markstrom need to improve to?

Last year he provided the Flames with 23 quality starts. The league leaders in quality starts were MAF, Varlamov, Grubauer with 26, Hellebuyck had 25 and Jarry and Vasilevskiy had 24.

He was 7th in Quality starts in the league last year. How good is expected to be this year?

In 2019-20 he had 25 QS, tied for 9/10 in the league.

In 2018-19 he has 34 QS tied for 5/8.


Last year was not that much an off year for Markstrom. A 10% improvement would make it a career year for him.

The better goalie stat to use is goals saved above replacement, or the number of goals he gave up less or more than the average goaltender based on the shot quality he faced.

Markstrom was 34th for goalies that played 20 or more games at -9.3.

Huge room for improvement. I'll say it again ... huge.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Where does Markstrom need to improve to?

Last year he provided the Flames with 23 quality starts. The league leaders in quality starts were MAF, Varlamov, Grubauer with 26, Hellebuyck had 25 and Jarry and Vasilevskiy had 24.

He was 7th in Quality starts in the league last year. How good is expected to be this year?

In 2019-20 he had 25 QS, tied for 9/10 in the league.

In 2018-19 he has 34 QS tied for 5/8.


Last year was not that much an off year for Markstrom. A 10% improvement would make it a career year for him.

The Flames were 23rd overall in team save percentage last year, so there is room for improvement for sure. The struggles for Markstrom came from a bad month long stretch when he came back from injury...and he was likely rushed back a little bit.

Markstrom was reportedly hurt on Feb 17 against the Canucks.

Before that game where he was injured Markstrom had played 13 games and had put up an impressive .924 save percentage, 2.38 GAA, and his 7.55 goals saved above average were 4th in the NHL.

Markstrom played 2 games after that game where he was supposedly injured in and was not himself putting up a .767 save percentage and -6.18 GSAA.

Markstrom missed 6 games and then struggled when he returned.

In his first 15 games back from injury he went .892 save percentage, with a 2.89 GAA, and -6.32 GSAA...he had a bad stretch when he came back from injury.

Then from that point on he finished the season fairly strong.

He played 13 games put up a .913 save percentage and a 1.72 GSAA. Not amazing but back to being at least above average.

Problem was that 27 game stretch where he was hurt/recovering from injury and Rittich didn't play very well cratered the playoff chances.

During that stretch the Flames went 10-15-2 for a .407 points percentage. The team .890 save percentage was 29th in the NHL over that time period.

Flames had a terrible season last year but the Flames were 16-12-1 outside of that stretch of bad goaltending and if not for that poor stretch they are probably a playoff team ahead of Montreal.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The Flames were 23rd overall in team save percentage last year, so there is room for improvement for sure. The struggles for Markstrom came from a bad month long stretch when he came back from injury...and he was likely rushed back a little bit.

Markstrom was reportedly hurt on Feb 17 against the Canucks.

Before that game where he was injured Markstrom had played 13 games and had put up an impressive .924 save percentage, 2.38 GAA, and his 7.55 goals saved above average were 4th in the NHL.

Markstrom played 2 games after that game where he was supposedly injured in and was not himself putting up a .767 save percentage and -6.18 GSAA.

Markstrom missed 6 games and then struggled when he returned.

In his first 15 games back from injury he went .892 save percentage, with a 2.89 GAA, and -6.32 GSAA...he had a bad stretch when he came back from injury.

Then from that point on he finished the season fairly strong.

He played 13 games put up a .913 save percentage and a 1.72 GSAA. Not amazing but back to being at least above average.

Problem was that 27 game stretch where he was hurt/recovering from injury and Rittich didn't play very well cratered the playoff chances.

During that stretch the Flames went 10-15-2 for a .407 points percentage. The team .890 save percentage was 29th in the NHL over that time period.

Flames had a terrible season last year but the Flames were 16-12-1 outside of that stretch of bad goaltending and if not for that poor stretch they are probably a playoff team ahead of Montreal.

This is it exactly.

With respect to Markstrom specifically, and by extension, the team as a whole, there were 3 distinct parts to the season last year. And using stats for the whole season completely muddies, and misses, what happened.

Markstrom was the goalie we expected until the injury. Then his game fell off the table and the season went to ####. Then his recovery and the Sutter effect slowly started to take hold and the team was better, but they never really got to where they should be.

Both Markstrom, and the Sutter effect, can - and likely will - be better than last year.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

This will be a team that likely is going to be bottom 8 in goals for, so they'll need to be top 3 in goals against if they want to compete for a playoff spot. Markstrom will have to be the guy he was in the first 8 games for the entire season, and he needs to stay healthy.

My biggest concern is the lack of offence from the backend. You might get away with that in 2003-04, but I don't think that will live in this version of the NHL. Overall scoring may not be up as it once was, but most teams getting to the playoffs have at least 1 or 2 guys from the backend who can help generate something offensively. Maybe Hanifin can finally move forward with a steady guy like Tanev beside him.

Overall, I don't like the roster. Many of us do like Daryl as a coach, and they do have a lot of guys who can play his style of game. So maybe they'll be able to win enough 2-1 and 1-0 games. I don't think teams will find the Flames easy to play against. They may be easier to beat due to their inability to score, but I do think teams will feel it more after playing the Flames unlike past years where maybe they had to skate a bit, but didn't find it too taxing to play a pretty soft team.

I disagree. I expect they will be middle of the pack - probably 15-20th overall in goals for, but if one of the defensemen (Hanifin) can step up on the PP, I think they will be in the 12-15 range for goals for.

The PP quarterback is definitely their achilles heel this year, but often when players are given opportunity, they grow into it. SOMEONE has to play the role, and the other 4 members of the PP haven't changed. So all they have to do is play their part - move it around on set plays, and take some shots. It isn't rocket surgery and I don't see why Hanifin or Andersson couldn't step up and give us what Giordano gave us last year (or at least close to it)

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by neo45

Basically everything needs to go right for us to squeak in and hope we magically heat up in playoffs

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before

Lather, rinse and repeat.

Without at or near PPG game seasons from Lindholm, Tkachuk and Gaudreau, and a semi respectable season from Monahan 55-60 points (which is an incredibly low bar) and a top 5 season from Markstrom, this team does not have the horses to get into the post season. Even in a weak division.

If the above does somehow occur, I'm still betting at best it's a 6/7th place finish with next to no chance of any prolonged playoff run given the loaded teams with legitimate depth and star power at center that this flawed roster won't be able to match.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by flambers

As others have mentioned Flames have key areas of concern

1) Flames will struggle to generate offense (should be in the bottom 10)

2) Defense, they have added but they are all defensive type players. Can the defense move the puck quick enough to be a quick style of play....

3) Back up goalie, their backup will need to play well. Its a risk for sure

I don't see the Flames ranking between 22-32 for offense.

While the high end isn't super duper, there are 7 guys up front capable of putting up 0.5-1 PPG: Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Coleman, Monahan, Backlund.

There is easily a large handful of teams with less weapons, even though they might have one that's higher end.

And a few of those guys are in contract years so they'll be a little more hungry for production.

How high they place in terms of GF depends on contributions from defense.

13-18 seems like a realistic ballpark IMO and puts them in that cusp of playoffs which seems on par for this team.

[tkflames]

Interesting analysis, but some fatal and some esthetic flaws:

1. Esthetic: the author doesn't seem to know how to add negative numbers (looked at Anaheim and stopped checking)

2. Fatal: GAR is based on where a player slots. The example with Pitlick is a good one. Pitlick had a GAR of 7 playing 3rd line and a negative GAR on the second line. Ryan has a GAR of 7 playing against 4th liners...on the Oilers he likely slots 3rd line duty. Given the massive swings in GAR based on slotting...the analysis does not properly account for previous versus current slotting which changes the math completely.


In terms of the flames...there are many other metrics beyond GAR that tell you about the flames off season. They lost their #1 defender and got a top 6 winger. The remaining changes are identity related versus skill improvement. If you believe that the Flames are a Stanley cup threat by just playing tighter hockey and better defense - then this off season gives you optimism (especially considering how Montreal did). If you believe the fundamental structure is flawed and you might as well burn it down (or go all in to accelerate that process if necessary), like I do....then this was a horrible off season.

[Calgary4LIfe]

If you split the league into three groups, I think the Flames are somewhere in that middle group in offence - anywhere from 11th to 22nd. I don't share the optimism in that one of the defencemen is going to emerge as a Giordano replacement, but I also won't say it is impossible. I also think that the overall transition might be too slow given too many defencemen with below average passing.


There is talent here that people are down on, however, and they are not a bottom third team IMO, unless something goes off the rails.


Somewhere in the middle for offence, top 3 or 4 for defence - that's this team this year to me. That should land them comfortably in the playoffs with a favourable draw for round 1.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

13-18 seems like a realistic ballpark IMO and puts them in that cusp of playoffs which seems on par for this team.

I think this is being overly optimistic, especially with Darryl Sutter as the head coach.

In 14/15 the LA Kings were 26th in GF/GP
In 13/14 the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup while being 27th in GF/GP.
In 12/13 the LA Kings were 27th in GF/GP
In 11/12 the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup while being 28th in GF/GP.

Those teams were significantly more talented than this Flames team and they still scored at close to the bottom of the league.

I'd bet that with our talent level and Sutter behind the bench, we're a bottom-5 team offensively.

In 11/12 the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup while being 3rd in GA/GP
In 12/13 the LA Kings were 3rd in GA/GP
In 13/14 the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup while being 3rd in GA/GP
in 14/15 the LA Kings were 6th in GA/GP.

This is Darryl Sutter hockey. Do we have the goalie/the defenders/the centres to be the 3rd best defensive team in the league? Right now I'd say absolutely not...but we'll see how the season plays out.

[Vinny01]

I have said many times I really hated this offseason. Not signing Gaudreau to an extension, no major trade to shakeup the core, a 6 year deal to a 30 year old role player. The only thing they did right in my opinion was not paying the price to keep Gio.

With that said the moves around the fringe which has being Treliving’s M.O since the summer of 2018 do make sense to me and I see the reasoning behind the moves. For the first time in a while there is a coach here who has a system and style of play that will be consistent and implemented from day 1. The beef in the bottom 6 and bottom pairing will help the team play the Sutter style.

I look at the Pacific and I see only 1 top team in Vegas. I think all 3 Canadian teams are a bit of a wildcard. The Oilers should be a solid team but have very suspect goaltending and a questionable back end. Vancouver made some moves and have young talent that is ready to take a step but how good are those young players really and does OEL have anything left in the tank? The Flames need a lot of players to bounce back to be a real threat.

I think LA and Seattle are also wildcards as they could literally be anywhere from fighting for 2nd in the division to being near the bottom. Seattle has a solid blueline and top end goaltending to go with some intriguing options up front. If they can come together quickly and play with that chip on their shoulder after being discarded by their former team then they can be very good. LA is also a team with some HOF veterans and some top end prospects. They could put it all together and start making a run or they may need another year or so. Not sure Danault, Edler, Arvidsson move the needle enough on their own.

Anaheim and San Jose are in the Shane Wright mix and hopefully are easy pickings for the Flames this year but I just don’t see how either team is truly in the mix for a playoff spot next year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't think calling Coleman a "role player" is an accurate description. He's expected to make an impact.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think calling Coleman a "role player" is an accurate description. He's expected to make an impact.

He was a role player, and he's being brought in here to be an impact player.

For him to hit/meet expectations, we're effectively relying on him to produce more points than he's ever produced in his career...and that's risky business when it comes to UFAs. I don't think anyone would be satisfied with 32 points from Coleman (his previous best in 66 games, although his career best PPG was this past season at .56 PPG).

[dino7c]

Coleman has never really had a chance though...if he plays on the 2nd line we envision he is going to have a massive season IMO

We all think Mangi is a great player and he also has a career high of 32 points