Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2021 - Round 4

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Back at you chief. Some real rocket surgeon level thinking in your response and complete dismissal of the reality teams and players face.



That was 17 months ago. The clock didn't stop ticking because of COVID.
It's all about investment and whether a player is going to make that investment bear fruit. And yes, age matters. The Flames made him a deal for his first contract where he got benefit because they believed he was further along in his development because of his age and the number of years he played in college. His development, like so many other players, has been hurt by COVID, but that doesn't change the expectations or the time table. The Flames only own the player's rights for so long, so they have to be sure they have a player on their hands. He's currently an RFA with arbitration rights, so he's one contract from being a UFA. That means he is what he is. Not many players are still considered "prospects" by time they have arbitration rights. The timeline and age matters.



Contract status says otherwise.



He's no longer a prospect because the team is being forced into a long-term contract decision on him right now. They don't get to consider future development time, they are making a decision on a contract that will carry him through to UFA status. Yelesin and Lerby are in the same situations, both of them having limited time during a pandemic, and both of them suffering the same outcome. Neither of them should be considered prospects any more as well. The clock doesn't stop for anyone, regardless of their circumstance. It's business, that all it is.

BTW, I fully expect Mackey to be a Flame this winter. I expect he'll be a 6-8 defenseman and that will be his lot going forward. You may not think that is fair, but it is what is. Neither of us can change the way the league works, the expectations that teams have, and the economics of the game.

Biggest difference in this chief?

I'm not questioning your intelligence with "rocket surgeon level thinking" ... I'm questioning your need to insert comments like "life is unfair" as if you're talking to a 5 year old.

He's a prospect. We don't need a rocket surgeon to bare that out, and I would guess 85% of the site would agree with me. A guy that has come out of junior and banged around in the AHL without a look in 6 years is different than a guy that came out of college well sought out, and has converted well to the pro game quickly.

Why must you be such an ass? People need to vote the way you vote or they're questioned. They need to agree with your assessment of who is a prospect or not or else they get a "sit upon my knee" talking to followed by insults.

You must be a lot of fun in real life.

[PepsiFree]

I imagine it would be very difficult for Lanny to have the confidence he desires based solely on the strength of his opinions, which is why he always acts like he's talking down to the common folk. Sort of a cover for the insecurity of just... having an opinion that may not be correct? Seems weird when we're talking hockey, but oh well. You strip the hubris from his posts and there really isn't much there.

I'm sure he's decent in real life when confronted with talking to a person face to face. A bit meek, maybe.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm not questioning your intelligence with "rocket surgeon level thinking" ... I'm questioning your need to insert comments like "life is unfair" as if you're talking to a 5 year old.

Nawww, you just start your posts with "How do you even hit submit on this stuff?"

No talking down to anyone there, or treating someone like they're an idiot there. Look in the mirror Bingo.

He's a prospect. We don't need a rocket surgeon to bare that out, and I would guess 85% of the site would agree with me. A guy that has come out of junior and banged around in the AHL without a look in 6 years is different than a guy that came out of college well sought out, and has converted well to the pro game quickly.

We have a very different take on player development, especially paths to the NHL. I view the college ranks as just another development path that is an alternative to playing minor pro. The time you spend in college is equivalent to years of development in the minors. They are both opportunities to improve your skillset, play against men, and be ready for the NHL. For a guy that plays four full years in college, he should be ready for the NHL in a year or less, especially if he is a top rated free agent. If it takes a guy more than that, he likely isn't much of a player. Most players that are going to be players break into the league at 21-23, and this includes college age players. Most players that aren't going to make it wash out by 24-25, when their contract ends. This is consistent with players who play minor pro or college hockey. I'm not sure why you can't acknowledge this or apply it to our players? There comes a point where players just age out of systems, and Mackey has come to that point. This is going to be his prove it contract, just like a lot of our RFAs, or he's going to be trying to catch one through a PTO this time next year or the year after (depending on where he gets one or two years on this Flames contract).

Why must you be such an ass? People need to vote the way you vote or they're questioned. They need to agree with your assessment of who is a prospect or not or else they get a "sit upon my knee" talking to followed by insults.

I follow your leadership in that regard oh Grand Poohbah of Calgarypuck. You don't notice it, but you can be just as condescending, people just won't call you out for it. You've got strong opinions based on your beliefs and faith in certain things, just like others do, myself included. You take some pretty good runs at people too, and you get away with it because you've got Owner under your handle. And that is fair. Ownership has its privileges and we all learn to play by your rules, but don't think for second because you are the leader and master of this domain that your #### doesn't stink like the others you like to take runs at. So please consider that when you cast aspersions on others for their communication style.

You must be a lot of fun in real life.

You already know the answer to that. We've met on multiple occasions and I've always been kind and jovial to everyone regardless of the situation (even Oilers fans). You know I would give the shirt off my back to someone in need, and you know that when someone is having a rough time I reach out to them see if they need help in any way. So yeah, we've had laughs together over beers and hockey games, so you know I'm a lot of fun in real life. So save the condescending comment like it means something.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Nawww, you just start your posts with "How do you even hit submit on this stuff?"

No talking down to anyone there, or treating someone like they're an idiot there. Look in the mirror Bingo.



We have a very different take on player development, especially paths to the NHL. I view the college ranks as just another development path that is an alternative to playing minor pro. The time you spend in college is equivalent to years of development in the minors. They are both opportunities to improve your skillset, play against men, and be ready for the NHL. For a guy that plays four full years in college, he should be ready for the NHL in a year or less, especially if he is a top rated free agent. If it takes a guy more than that, he likely isn't much of a player. Most players that are going to be players break into the league at 21-23, and this includes college age players. Most players that aren't going to make it wash out by 24-25, when their contract ends. This is consistent with players who play minor pro or college hockey. I'm not sure why you can't acknowledge this or apply it to our players? There comes a point where players just age out of systems, and Mackey has come to that point. This is going to be his prove it contract, just like a lot of our RFAs, or he's going to be trying to catch one through a PTO this time next year or the year after (depending on where he gets one or two years on this Flames contract).



I follow your leadership in that regard oh Grand Poohbah of Calgarypuck. You don't notice it, but you can be just as condescending, people just won't call you out for it. You've got strong opinions based on your beliefs and faith in certain things, just like others do, myself included. You take some pretty good runs at people too, and you get away with it because you've got Owner under your handle. And that is fair. Ownership has its privileges and we all learn to play by your rules, but don't think for second because you are the leader and master of this domain that your #### doesn't stink like the others you like to take runs at. So please consider that when you cast aspersions on others for their communication style.



You already know the answer to that. We've met on multiple occasions and I've always been kind and jovial to everyone regardless of the situation (even Oilers fans). You know I would give the shirt off my back to someone in need, and you know that when someone is having a rough time I reach out to them see if they need help in any way. So yeah, we've had laughs together over beers and hockey games, so you know I'm a lot of fun in real life. So save the condescending comment like it means something.

Sorry man ... that's just not the case.

I'd happily put my record of listening to other people's ideas and avoiding talking down or insulting others to the test against yours ... any day of the week.

In this case "how do you hit submit on this stuff?" is a direct response to your "life isn't fair" glib answer that's condescending. Calling out condensation isn't condensation.

But you are right ... you're less of an ass in person. Maybe feel safer to be an ass from behind a key board?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Sorry man ... that's just not the case.

I'd happily put my record of listening to other people's ideas and avoiding talking down or insulting others to the test against yours ... any day of the week.

In this case "how do you hit submit on this stuff?" is a direct response to your "life isn't fair" glib answer that's condescending. Calling out condensation isn't condensation.

But you are right ... you're less of an ass in person. Maybe feel safer to be an ass from behind a key board?

So you're saying he's all wet?

I kill myself.

[Flamesfan05]

Wolf is not anywhere close to Vladar

But goalies are unpredictable until they play in the NHL

[united]

Considered
Johannes Kinnvall
Connor Mackey
Ryan Francis
William Stromgren

Not Considered
Goalies.
I don't have a clue with goalies and am skeptical many other people do, either. That said, my NHL model - which uses a recency-weighted rolling average save percentage from the NHL and AHL, has Vladar as an exactly NHL-average goalie right now so heading into his 24-year-old season he is looking like good bet. Then you have Wolf who has as good of a major junior career as you can realistically have. For that reason I can't vote for either at this stage but have no issue with those who do. Hopefully the Flames see a reversal of the past two decades and both pan out.


The next tier for me are these four. However, the margin from 3 to 4 is much larger than the margin from 7-8 which represents how truly deep the Flames' prospect pool has become. Even the most optimistic fan cannot look past the lack of true top end talent in the pool, but I think the Flames' depth is significantly underrated. From 4 to about 15, the Flames should graduate a number of depth players to fill out future rosters, and if all goes well, one or two of them realizes their peak potential and cracks the top 6F/4D. Aside from a few eye test veto-type picks that were blunders, the Flames' decision to aggregate rankings from their cold arena-attending scouts with Chris Snow's prospect modelling work has paid off handsomely in recent years.

This round was a tough one and all are honestly pretty interchangeable, in my opinion. The classic ceiling versus certainty dilemma comes into play that's for sure. In the end I went with Stromgren for pure ceiling over likelihood of playing.

Johannes Kinnvall
A defenceman nobody will mistake for Chris Tanev or Niklas Hjalmarsson, the right-shooting powerplay quarterback brings an exciting up-tempo brand of hockey to table, for better or for worse. Already demonstrating an NHL-caliber ability to command a powerplay, Kinnvall offers the coveted dual-threat from the top of the formation keeping penalty killers from cheating either pass or shoot. And while there is no denying his defensive shortcomings, I think his defensive play is getting somewhat underrated due to circumstance. Consider that Kinnvall played for the worst team in the SHL - the recently relegated HV71 - with sub .900 goaltending and you have a situation where help is not abundant and goaltending was unable to bail the team out. Per pick224, HV71 was outscored 21-16 with Kinnvall on the ice, but 62-26 with him on the bench, for instance. The Flames have a big flashing spot at RD3 but would they use it on a soft, offensively-minded defenceman? Probably not, but maybe he wins the job at camp and we have our own Tyson Barrie for 1/5 of the cost. Let's see.

Ceiling: NHL powerplay QB
Probable: AHL/Euro league all-star (Style: Tyson Barrie)
Floor: Minor leaguer/Euro league all-star

Connor Mackey
Coming out of the Mike Hastings-coached Minnesota State program, Connor Mackey quickly showed that not only was he legitimate at the next level, he was arguably far better than expected. Perhaps the result of recent NCAA free agent PTSD with Spencer Foo, some fans were highly skeptical of Mackey's ability - though to go on a tangent I will point out the common practice of rating all NCAA conferences equally is maddening and results in players like Foo getting baffling levels of hype. Consider the talent gap between the WHCA (Mackey) and ECAC is about as large as the gap between the WHL and the AJHL - imagine if those two leagues were treated equally? That out of the weight, I thought Mackey had some nerves at the NHL but quickly adapted to, then dominated, the AHL. I think there is little question Mackey is an NHL level talent but going into his 25-year-old season he is likely a 3rd-pairing defenceman.

Ceiling: #5 defenceman
Probable: #6/7 defenceman (style: Jason Demers)
Floor: AHL/Euro league all-star

Ryan Francis
Similar to Jakob Pelletier in both height and per-game production, Francis is another "undersized" player who isn't afraid to get to the tough areas of the ice. In fact, this season, a handful of Francis' goals came within an arm's length of the blue paint. Though not possessing notable straight-line speed, Francis can be described using a term that has become prevalent in hockey parlance: a waterbug. In the neutral and offensive zones, Francis has the ability to take advantage of his lower centre of gravity by controlling defenders' feet and hips with shifty and erratic movement. This season, I saw a regression in defensive play from the winger-turned-centre but that was offset by a commensurate progression in offensive ability - Francis actually outpaced the highly-regarded Pelletier albeit by a sliver. All those positives in mind, translating an offence-focused game at 5'10 is more difficult than a defensive-focused game so his time in the AHL will tell us a lot. Wide variance player.

Ceiling: 2nd-line winger
Probable: AHL tweener (Style: Dillon Dube)
Floor: Bust

William Stromgren
Already 6'3 at 17 years old, Stromgren possess the frame old school scouts drool over. Add in his above average skating ability and you have a prospect that has tremendous potential should he and the Flames' development staff be able to round out the rest of his game. The offensively-focused winger displays a pro-caliber ability to protect the puck downlow, isn't afraid to get to the paint, and can beat pro goalies clean with his shot. Stromgren's hockey IQ really holds him back as his defensive contributions are subpar to be generous and he struggles utilizing his teammates on offence. Stromgren is really raw talent with impressive tools and if he puts it together could be a Pavel Buchnevic-type player. That said, hockey IQ is tough to overcome - boom or bust likely here.

Ceiling: 2nd-line winger
Probable: AHL/Euro league (Style: Pavel Buchnevic)
Floor: Bust