The stretch run (Western Conference)

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Nucks would only need to go 9-6-1 to finish with 93 points, ahead of the Flames. So I don't know about 'comfortably'.

That won't be a cake walk with the current goaltending situation, as this current stretch has demonstrated.

But yes, I think no matter what the Flames should be aiming for 9-5.

If you manage that, theres no question you're coming into the POs hot.

[Phaneufenstein]

Originally Posted by Itse

IMO late in the season these "schedule strength" predictions are worthless. Teams have so unique situations and they all react to them differently. Some "strong" teams comfortably in the playoffs start playing soft, while others fight hard for positions. Some teams on the bubble buckle under pressure while others savour it. Some teams out of the playoffs stop trying and others start playing loose and/or fight hard for their pride.

That's true but then we'd have nothing to talk about!

[Enoch Root]

I always like to look at how many games over .500 each team is, as that doesn't get clouded by number of games played. Currently, the Flames are +9 (35W, 26L). There are 5 teams behind them that sit as follows:

VAN +8
MIN +7
WIN +6
ARI +6
NAS +6

Three of those teams have to pass them or they are in. And one of the 3 has to be VAN or ARI. So things look pretty good. As for games over .500, the likelihood of getting in shakes out as follows:

Finish +8: 25% (that means 1 game below .500, or 6-7-1, the rest of the way)
Finish +9: 50% (7-7-0)
Finish +10: 70-75%
Finish +11: 90% (93 points)
Finish +12: 97%
Finish +13: 100% (rounded), (4 games over, or 9-5-0)

Even if they only go 1 game over .500 the rest of the way (finishing with 92 pts), there is a very good chance they're in.

[Enoch Root]

Oh, and of course, 96 points (a.k.a. the snake line) is 100%

[JohnnyBeGood]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think home versus road is going to correct itself. The home will games will still be an advantage down the stretch when play style gets more road like anyway.

The Flames average 1.09 points per game at home and 1.16 ppg on the road: so home record vs road record is hardly like day and night. The number of road games played is a lot higher (e.g. 37 vs 31), this makes the road record appear much stronger if you just look at number of victories. Totally agree that this is likely to correct itself over the remainder of the schedule (mainly at home).

Strangely, there are a fair few other teams whose count of away victories at this point is greater than their home victories: e.g Caps, Leafs, Avs, some team to the north.

[FanIn80]

I'll update and post every day.



Obviously it's impossible for every team to win all their games, but it's an easier (for me at least) way to track mathematical elimination.

[hwy19man]

After Thursday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Bhawks, Predators, and Wild won in regulation
Oilers and Stars lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-17-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-18-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-23-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-24-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (35-26-7) 24 RW, 77 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Minnesota (34-26-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (35-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (33-26-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Winnipeg (34-28-6) 27 RW, 74 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-27-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-28-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[FanIn80]

Updated!

[Tsawwassen]

After Friday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Flames, Jets, and Canucks won in regulation
Coyotes, Knights, Avs, Blues, and Bhawks lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-18-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-19-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-24-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-24-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-26-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (35-25-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Minnesota (34-26-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Nashville (33-26-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-29-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Predators are ahead of the Coyotes because Nashville has 30 ROWs to Arizona's 28 ROWs.
The Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[FanIn80]

Updated

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Is there somewhere that shows the standings according to current pace? Ie, 82/GP*Pts for each team?

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Is there somewhere that shows the standings according to current pace? Ie, 82/GP*Pts for each team?

I could add that in.

Edit: I've added it in (above). How is that?

[hwy19man]

]After Saturday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Predators and Oilers won in regulation
Stars and Wild lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-18-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-19-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
4. Edmonton (37-24-8) 31 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Las Vegas (37-24-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-26-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (36-25-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Minnesota (34-27-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-29-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division

[Tsawwassen]

After Sunday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Knights, Blues, and Avs won in regulation
Wild won in overtime

Flames, Bhawks, and Canucks lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (41-18-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (41-19-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (38-24-8) 30 RW, 84 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
5. Edmonton (37-24-8) 31 RW, 82 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Minnesota (35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (35-27-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Canucks are ahead of the Predators because Vancouver has 32 ROWs to Nashville's 31 ROWs.

[FanIn80]

Updated.

Edit: The important thing to keep in mind, down the stretch, is that we lose most of the tie breakers with every other team we're competing with.

1. Regulation Wins (RW)
2. Regulation/OT Wins
3. Wins
4. Record vs Opponent
5. Goal Differential
6. Goals For

Meaning if we finish tied with another team in points, there's an extremely high possibility we would lose all three of the first tie breakers, as well as the last two. Basically, we might have a chance at winning the "Season Series" tiebreaker with some of the teams, but it wouldn't matter because we'd never get to that tiebreaker in the first place.

[ricardodw]

since all star break

Vegas MAF 7-4-1 2.57 .898 Lehner 4-2-1 3.02 .911
Dallas Bishop 5-5-1 2.96 .906 Khudobin 5-1-3 2.06 .934
Edmonton Koskinen 4-4-0 2.29 .936 Smith 7-2-3 2.90 .903
Calgary Rittich 5-5-1 3.60 .888 Talbot 5-3-1 2.80 .915
Minn Stalock 9-3-1 2.22 9.24 Dubnyk 3-3-0 3.59 .882
Van Markstom (out) 5-3-1 2.89 .923 Demko 3-5-1 2.98 .905
Nash Sarros 10-4-0 2.15 .936 Rinne 2-4-1 4.12 .884
wpg Hellebuyck 8-5-1 2.17 .932 Broissot 2-1-1 1.98 .933
Arz Raatana 6-4-1 2.10 .937


Which goalie will ruin their teams playoff chances? Which will carry their teams into the post season?


Goals scored last night would suggest that both Lehner and Rittich were AHL call ups.

[FanIn80]

Post-All-Star Game goalie stats for the teams we're competing against for a playoff spot:

ARI

Spoiler!

CGY

Spoiler!

EDM

Spoiler!

MIN

Spoiler!

NSH

Spoiler!

VAN

Spoiler!

VGK

Spoiler!

WPG

Spoiler!

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Post-All-Star Game goalie stats for the teams we're competing against for a playoff spot:

ARI

Spoiler!

CGY

Spoiler!

EDM

Spoiler!

MIN

Spoiler!

NSH

Spoiler!

VAN

Spoiler!

VGK

Spoiler!

WPG

Spoiler!

If Rittich was playing at this level to start the season Gillies might have had an NHL call up. In 2011-12 Gillies had pretty much the same stats in his 11 NHL games as Rittich has had in his last 12.

Gillies basically blew his chance with this level of play.

[Always Earned Never Given]

I really think that the best case scenario to know what this team is made of, would be for Colorado to overtake St.Louis for 1st Overall in the West and for the Flames to finish in the 2nd wildcard spot. (both very probable at the moment)

This way, we get to see what this team is capable of doing against the team that kinda destroyed their dream season! (they would hopefully have a chip on their shoulders plus one of the best teams on the road)

Then management will have no choice but to make major changes if the results are the same as last year but if they get to the 2nd round, the confidence would be sky high.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If Rittich was playing at this level to start the season Gillies might have had an NHL call up. In 2011-12 Gillies had pretty much the same stats in his 11 NHL games as Rittich has had in his last 12.

Gillies basically blew his chance with this level of play.

What? Gillies was drafted in 2012! First game he played was in 2016-17