[Signing] Sharks re-sign Erik Karlsson (8yrs, $11.5 mil AAV, full NMC)

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

$53 million in signing bonuses

CapFriendly @CapFriendly
Erik Karlsson #Sharks
8 years / $11.5M AAV ($92M Total)

2019-20: $3.5M + $11M SB
2020-21: $2M + $10M SB
2021-22: $5.5M + $9M SB
2022-23: $2M + $10M SB
2023-24: $10.5M + $1M SB
2024-25: $10M + $1M SB
2025-26: $4M + $5M SB
2026-27: $1.5M + $6M SB

Full NMC


CapFriendly @CapFriendly
With the #Sharks re-signing pending UFA and 2x Norris trophy winner, Erik Karlsson to an 8 year, $11.5M contract, the club now has $12.5M in projected cap space with a roster of 16 (7F 7D 2G)

Notable free agents:
Thornton He gone
Pavelski He gone (maybe?)
Meier RFA without arbitration rights coming off his ELC. Huge breakout year with 30 goals and 66 points. My guess is a relatively long term deal (5-6 years?) at about $4-5 million per year.
Labanc Same as Meier, but lesser stats, mostly goals. I'm betting same length at about $3-4 million.
Nyquist He gone

Best case scenario with remaining cap: $5.5 million remaining. Worst case scenario: $3.5 million remaining. I don't see Pavelski signing for $5 million or less at this point, but he is their captain and is pretty loyal to the team, so maybe he does a 1 or 2 year deal at $5 million.

Their goaltending and defense are now set in stone barring some major shake up trade, and I can't see that happening. So basically, the major issue they will face is their forward lineup. Meier and Labanc will 100% be re-signed, but it could get expensive and eat up their remaining cap. Does Wilson re-up 34 year old Pavelski? The guy is a warrior, but he's getting older now. No chance that they keep Thornton and Nyquist. They might find another top 6 forward for the remaining cap space, but I doubt it will be Pavelski unless they make a trade.

So they could possibly be looking at this for an opening day lineup:

Kane-Couture-Meier
Labanc-Hertl-UFA
Sorenson-Goodrow-M. Karlsson
Radil-Gambrell-*Rookie*

Vlasic-E. Karlsson
Dillon-Burns
Braun-Simek/Middleton

Jones/Dell

It's a lineup with some good players, no doubt, but it doesn't exactly scare you, and it really lacks depth at forward. If the goalies have another questionable year, they might struggle to make the playoffs.

[Galakanokis]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

He couldn't move laterally because his groin was held together with scotch tape and dreams.

"Erik Karlsson is bad defensively" is a tired narrative that has been disproven more times than a 9/11 conspiracy. He can get danced. He can lose his man. So can Gio. It doesn't make either bad defensively, it's just what happens when you play against the other team's top line 25 minutes a night.

I have never cared for his defensive game and always felt his skating got him out of a lot of bad situations. His defensive awareness is not great to me and if his skating continues to suffer and he cannot make up for the gaffes it will be a liability. Amazing player to watch but I'm ok with him being on a division rival.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

He couldn't move laterally because his groin was held together with scotch tape and dreams.

"Erik Karlsson is bad defensively" is a tired narrative that has been disproven more times than a 9/11 conspiracy. He can get danced. He can lose his man. So can Gio. It doesn't make either bad defensively, it's just what happens when you play against the other team's top line 25 minutes a night.

You and I are watching different players then. Karlsson USED to be able to defend well because he could use his mobility to make up for the risks he would take offensively, and he has a great stick. Now he just has the stick because his mobility is very suspect. The groin issue is a compensation for the ankle that is non-existent. That's what happens in the lower body kinetic chain when you have an injury like that, lack of mobility in an ankle works it's way up the chain and you have other parts of the body that have to compensate and make up that lost mobility.

That's why this is a huge risk because he could be unable to defend in a couple years time. His offensive gifts make up for that to some extent because he can outscore his mistakes, but he's going to be a liability on the ice at some point in the future. It's just a matter of when, not if.

[Reggie Dunlop]

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Locke

Good.

San Jose has gotten so many good players just because its San Jose its nice that they have to take it in the chops every now and then.

I don’t know, you cannot really call any of these contracts a discount(Kane, Thornton, and others...), they are market value or higher.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

CapFriendly @CapFriendly
With the #Sharks re-signing pending UFA and 2x Norris trophy winner, Erik Karlsson to an 8 year, $11.5M contract, the club now has $12.5M in projected cap space with a roster of 16 (7F 7D 2G)

Notable free agents:
Thornton
Pavelski
Meier
Labanc
Nyquist

Just guessing

Meier - $6.5m
Pavelski - $5.5m
Labanc - $3.5m
Thornton - $2.5m

Nyquist - gone

I can't see them letting captain Pavelski leave, I wonder if they sell high on Burns and get rid of his $8m

[dirk diggler]

terrible overpayment. SJ strikes me as a market where players might actually take less to play there but it never happens.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Exactly this. Karlsson is going to be very impactful for the length of this contract.

He will win at least one more Norris.

I seriously doubt it. Watching him play last year it was clear that his mobility is not anywhere close to what it used to be. He is still a very good offensive defenseman, but the Flames are paying less for BOTH Giordano and Hamonic, and are much better off for it.

[bubbsy]

I wonder if the sharks trade a guy like vlasic in order to fit in some of the pending FA forwards?

[Robo]

Jesus this contract could be a disaster as early as next year this is an unreal contract

[Locke]

And here I thought the Skinner contract was going to be among the first to be regretted.

San Jose: Hold my beer....

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I wonder if the sharks trade a guy like vlasic in order to fit in some of the pending FA forwards?

Vlasic has an NMC. Burns has an NTC where he picks three teams he's willing to go to at the start of the season. Either could waive those, of course, but hard to imagine they would want to.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Exactly this. Karlsson is going to be very impactful for the length of this contract.

He will win at least one more Norris.

Well, Giordano will win a Norris as well....The idea is to win a cup, not individual awards. Further to that if you look at the Blues, big and fast defensman are more the ideal mold. He has been involved in two playoff runs and was injured both times. I’d rather have Parayko.

This is Connor McDavid money, is he worth that much? Certainly better then the Skinner contract, but that does not say much.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I have a feeling this is gonna bite the Sharks in the rear end at some point

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Well, Giordano will win a Norris as well....The idea is to win a cup, not individual awards. Further to that if you look at the Blues, big and fast defensman are more the ideal mold. He has been involved in two playoff runs and was injured both times. I’d rather have Parayko.

This is Connor McDavid money, is he worth that much? Certainly better then the Skinner contract, but that does not say much.

This isn't Connor McDavid money, especially not when you factor in the RFA status of McDavid.

What this is is the going price for top-tier players. It's been this ways for a decade+, there's a little bit of inflation, but a player like Weber started making 10M+ a year in 2012. Sure, they added on a bunch of retirement years where he'll develop a rash but in terms of actual cold hard cash he's making over 100M in his first 10 years of that contract.

For better or worse, we're at the stage where top tier players make 11M+ during their prime UFA years. Most contracts don't go through a player all in his UFA prime years (some either when they are 35+ or still under RFA) but when they do, they get paid a #### ton and everyone says they are overpaid. Not every top tier player can be overpaid.

Also Iginla made 14% of the cap when he first signed as a UFA with his 7M salary. So Karlsson's 14.5% of the cap isn't that far off - although Karlsson's contract does bring him past his prime years.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Also Iginla made 14% of the cap when he first signed as a UFA with his 7M salary. So Karlsson's 14.5% of the cap isn't that far off - although Karlsson's contract does bring him past his prime years.

Actually, IIRC, Iggy signed for $7M with a $39M cap, so close to 18%.

Every UFA contract for a decent player brings him past his prime years.

[djsFlames]

Good, good.

No way this albatross doesn't become a massive waste of cap as soon as 4 years in.

Wasn't even very good last season, and constantly nursing a tweak of some kind. This and the Skinner contracts are just ridiculous.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Actually, IIRC, Iggy signed for $7M with a $39M cap, so close to 18%.

Every UFA contract for a decent player brings him past his prime years.

For sure. But I think the debate we should be having is whether today's Karlsson is even worth the present cap hit for what he now provides. I would argue emphatically not.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

$53 million in signing bonuses

CapFriendly @CapFriendly
Erik Karlsson #Sharks
8 years / $11.5M AAV ($92M Total)

2019-20: $3.5M + $11M SB
2020-21: $2M + $10M SB
2021-22: $5.5M + $9M SB
2022-23: $2M + $10M SB
2023-24: $10.5M + $1M SB
2024-25: $10M + $1M SB
2025-26: $4M + $5M SB
2026-27: $1.5M + $6M SB

Full NMC


CapFriendly @CapFriendly
With the #Sharks re-signing pending UFA and 2x Norris trophy winner, Erik Karlsson to an 8 year, $11.5M contract, the club now has $12.5M in projected cap space with a roster of 16 (7F 7D 2G)

Notable free agents:
Thornton
Pavelski
Meier
Labanc
Nyquist

I'd love to take Pavelski or Meier off their hands.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Every UFA contract for a decent player brings him past his prime years.

I guess define prime years, but a player reaching UFA at 25 can easily have a contract with only his 'prime years' especially defensemen and goalies.