Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[jayswin]

We offered Tkachuk 4.5AAV this summer? This is complete news to me. Even as a rumour I hadn't heard that.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Some bizarre takes by Moustache in this thread.

Team does not have all the leverage.
Some bad math (thinking the difference in one of the seasons won’t be made up by the whole contract) and some lowball numbers if Tkachuk keeps this up.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Some bizarre takes by Moustache in this thread.

Team does not have all the leverage.
Some bad math (thinking the difference in one of the seasons won’t be made up by the whole contract) and some lowball numbers if Tkachuk keeps this up.

Yeah, a lot of stuff is off there.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Tre really screwed the pooch by offering Tkachuck 4.5 aav in the off season. Reportedly the tkachuk camp wanted 7.
4.5 is not a serious offer, why even bother?

Without knowing the years, hard to know what to make of it. But it would have had to been a pretty short term.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Without knowing the years, hard to know what to make of it. But it would have had to been a pretty short term.

That's why I don't believe it. Why would Treliving be looking to secure Tkachuk for like two years last summer? Makes zero sense. None.

[The Boy Wonder]

Just give him 8x8. we are gonna see in a couple seasons how much it hurst when you don't get max term for these guys when Johnny takes off or has to be resigned at a huge number.

If you think tkachuk is the future captain and probably a stud for the majority of his 20s then you have to pay the man to make sure he is here for the duration of the flames window and likely into the next one if he's the guy you want to build around.

This should be the easiest deal to get done.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by jayswin

That's why I don't believe it. Why would Treliving be looking to secure Tkachuk for like two years last summer? Makes zero sense. None.

Presumably because that's all he would sign for?

I really don't know, just trying to come up with something logical based on the facts presented.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I think it will come in at the maximum of 8 years, at an AAV in the mid to high 7's.

Considering some of the other contracts handed out to the team's best players and top scorers in other markets, that is a bargain.

The thing is, he may or may not be the best player, it's nowhere as clear as with many other teams. Even if he is the top scorer this year, he hasn't been and may not be going forward. Lindholm is right there with him as a multi-tool guy and just signed a way lower contract. Gaudreau is still the best pure offensive player and Monahan isn't far behind. And Gio may still be the best all around player on the team.

A lot of this talk echoes what was going on with Gaudreau's extension. "He's the best player - you have to give him whatever he wants". "He gets $8M easy."

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

A short term deal is not in the best interests of the Flames. Sure it's cheaper now, but he'll be a UFA that much sooner, and that have to pay big money for an 8 year term, which is guaranteed to stink by the time he's older.

Players like to be UFA's at a time when they are young enough to command an 8 year contract. It guarantees them big money in their later years.

Now teams can refuse to give them that contract, but someone will if they are UFA's.

I agree it’s in the team’s best interest to sign him to the longest deal possible, but if the difference between a 6 or 8 year term is going to be an additional $1M cap hit per year I think the flames will opt for the 6 year deal.

[Yoho]

If you think Nylander’s dad is tough to deal with wait till you see Matty’s.
This one’s going to be expensive.

[madmike]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Just give him 8x8. we are gonna see in a couple seasons how much it hurst when you don't get max term for these guys when Johnny takes off or has to be resigned at a huge number.

If you think tkachuk is the future captain and probably a stud for the majority of his 20s then you have to pay the man to make sure he is here for the duration of the flames window and likely into the next one if he's the guy you want to build around.

This should be the easiest deal to get done.

I think 8 x 8 would be pretty reasonable.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Yoho

If you think Nylander’s dad is tough to deal with wait till you see Matty’s.
This one’s going to be expensive.

Nylander has Gaudreau's a-hole of an agent. Not sure who the individual is but Tkachuk's agency is the same as Monahan's. Also negotiated Marchand's bargain contract. Horvat's pretty decent contract. Kane's $7M UFA deal.

On the other hand that same agency represents Neal, Stone and Brouwer

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

A lot of this talk echoes what was going on with Gaudreau's extension. "He's the best player - you have to give him whatever he wants". "He gets $8M easy."

There may have been a lot of posts like that, but only from one poster .

There was probably more people arguing he wasn't worth his eventual contract than those arguing he was worth "8M easy." The general consensus was something along the line of 7-7.5M for 8 years of Gaudreau, and I'd still have preferred that contract for the extra 2 years. People underestimate just how much prime UFA years are worth for star players.

Contracts mostly with RFA years or UFA contracts that go past their prime have hidden the true cost. But, as we saw with Tavares, teams will line up to offer 11M+ for UFAs in their prime (If you count 34 still prime). Sharks reportedly offer 91M for 7 years, 13M annually. Gaudreau signed a 6 year contract, it's no where near the same as an 8 year contract with 2 more UFA years.

So even if we say that Gaudreau's "7th and 8th years" were worth 10M, that would still bring his contract to 60.5M, or 7.6M. So the fan consensus was pretty ballpark.

I would agree. 7M+ for 7 or 8 years. No problem with that. No problem if it goes past 7.5M for 8 years.

However, at 5 or 6 years, if it doesn't start with a 6 or less, I think Treliving got demolished. At that term, the ball should be completely in Treliving's court as he's giving up the RFA years and letting Gaudreau be a UFA as early as possible. Doing that should at least allow the Flames to sign him at ~6M, making the best of the worst situation.

This was my post on Gaudreau. Happy to offer him 7.5M+ for 8 years at the time, but lowballed him a bit on his actual contract.

So similarly with Tkachuk, assuming he keeps up his play (65-80 points let say), these are what I think he'd sign for roughly:

5 years - 6.75M/year
6 years - 7.0M/ year
7 years - 7.5M/year
8 years - 8M/year

With hopefully 7 or 8 years being selected.

[Calgary_81]

But he can't make more than the captain? What about the "internal" salary limits ?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

There may have been a lot of posts like that, but only from one poster .

There was probably more people arguing he wasn't worth his eventual contract than those arguing he was worth "8M easy." The general consensus was something along the line of 7-7.5M for 8 years of Gaudreau, and I'd still have preferred that contract for the extra 2 years. People underestimate just how much prime UFA years are worth for star players.

Contracts mostly with RFA years or UFA contracts that go past their prime have hidden the true cost. But, as we saw with Tavares, teams will line up to offer 11M+ for UFAs in their prime (If you count 34 still prime). Sharks reportedly offer 91M for 7 years, 13M annually. Gaudreau signed a 6 year contract, it's no where near the same as an 8 year contract with 2 more UFA years.

So even if we say that Gaudreau's "7th and 8th years" were worth 10M, that would still bring his contract to 60.5M, or 7.6M. So the fan consensus was pretty ballpark.



This was my post on Gaudreau. Happy to offer him 7.5M+ for 8 years at the time, but lowballed him a bit on his actual contract.

So similarly with Tkachuk, assuming he keeps up his play (65-80 points let say), these are what I think he'd sign for roughly:

5 years - 6.75M/year
6 years - 7.0M/ year
7 years - 7.5M/year
8 years - 8M/year

With hopefully 7 or 8 years being selected.

No doubt you pay more for UFA years. But I don't think RFAs are ever given full present value for UFA years. And I'm not sure Tavares is the best example. He was a unique situation - a genuine elite player in actual UFA status, not an extension.

I'm not sure what Gaudreau commands as a UFA. A lot, but I suspect not Tavares money. But look at what Marchand got for an extension kicking in just last year - that's a pretty good comparable for Chucky (with appropriate cap increase consideration).

[Vinny01]

I don’t want Treliving to make the same mistake with Tkachuk that he did with Gaudreau and settle for 6 years. This is a player we need to buy the max amount of UFA years and go the full 8.

Knowing Treliving he will use the leverage he has to get the cap hit down and that will result in a 6 year deal probably around $7.5M per

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Calgary_81

But he can't make more than the captain? What about the "internal" salary limits ?

That’s a fan myth IMO

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t want Treliving to make the same mistake with Tkachuk that he did with Gaudreau and settle for 6 years. This is a player we need to buy the max amount of UFA years and go the full 8.

Knowing Treliving he will use the leverage he has to get the cap hit down and that will result in a 6 year deal probably around $7.5M per

Hope not too. Would rather pay my stars for 8 years than save money for the Ryans and Neals of the world. That's really all that excess/saved cap space gets spent on anyway.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t want Treliving to make the same mistake with Tkachuk that he did with Gaudreau and settle for 6 years. This is a player we need to buy the max amount of UFA years and go the full 8.

Knowing Treliving he will use the leverage he has to get the cap hit down and that will result in a 6 year deal probably around $7.5M per

Too much AAV for a 6 year deal that eats up twice as many RFA years as UFA years.

I know Draisaitl got 8.5, but that was as a line-driving centre, came after he had scored 77 points in his 3rd season (a substantial increase from 51 in his 2nd, and they were likely projecting him to score 100+ in his 4th season at the time that deal was signed), and included 5 UFA years and only 3 RFA years. Not to mention that it was offered by the worst GM in the league.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No doubt you pay more for UFA years. But I don't think RFAs are ever given full present value for UFA years.

I'd say you can see RFA's getting full, or near enough, for UFA years with McDavid, Draisaitl, Giroux, Eichel and you could look to a lesser extent in Kucherov. There's not many 8 year contracts, but it's not surprising that the RFA contracts signed to them are also the ones people mostly considered overpaid because they compare them to 6 year RFA contracts that don't eat up the same amount of UFA years.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

But look at what Marchand got for an extension kicking in just last year - that's a pretty good comparable for Chucky (with appropriate cap increase consideration).

It's not really a good comparable. Just because of such a huge difference all around. First, in favour of him he was a UFA.

However, it was signed in September 2016. Marchand, at that point, had just come off a career year 61 points and was 28. He was not regarded as anywhere near a point-per-game (plus) player that he was too become and no one really expected that.

He will also be 37 by the time the contract expires. So those last couple years at pretty big discounts.

Finally, he gets NMC included, something Tkachuk can't even ask for during the majority of his contract negotiations. Just all around different scenario, that it doesn't play much into Tkachuk's situation.