[PGT] Coilers 4, Flames 3: End of preseason

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

He looked too slow to play in the NHL without costing his team. I think for all of his skill, it's as simple as that. Can't skate, can't play.

I saw what you saw, but I also saw what he does well.

He's not that fleet of foot and when he relies on his feet too much he gets in trouble. However his brain/vision is so far ahead of most other defensemen (on either team) he really stands out when the play starts to develop.

I'm fine with not calling him ready right now. But the good thing is he just needs to simplify his game when the play is meant to be simple, avoid foot races he doesn't need to be in, and then let the rest of his game come to the top.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I didn’t watch the game but assume it is safe to expect Lindholm on the top line on opening night? It seems to me that we should feel very good about this.

Overall I have been pleased with the Flames’s preseason. I don’t read a lot into goaltending performances in September.


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Another game with Lindholm on an abbreviated top line and they didn't spend much time in their own zone.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by JetsFlamesFan

His save % was .880 after his injury, well below his season average of .916. He came back from injury and stunk at the worst possible time. The fact that the shots are the denominator is irrelevant, unless you are suggesting that goalies stop less pucks on average when they face less shots. I don't think that's true and if you look at Smith's game by game stats after his injury you'll see that it doesn't bear out that way. If a goalie typically stops 90% of shots, then he should stop 90% of 20 or 40, the number of shots really shouldn't matter?

Picture tells 1000 words

I went with a rolling 5 game on a 55 game season because it does a good job of moving out noise (one bad game), while also keeps things moving so his great starts at the beginning of the season roll off and get into 5 games segments.

A few things are true here.

1. He had a great start
2. It wasn't just a great start.

He went a half season of elite goaltending, had a dip around start 22-23, pulled that out and was a big part of the team's move up the standings in January, struggled a bit before his injury, and clearly came back too soon.

Other than his post injury sag he was a +.920 goaltender essentially all season which makes him a top half goatlender in the National Hockey League. All numbers included he's top 20.



Additionally he was .937 on the road and .901 at home, which was as odd as the team with both expected to normalize I would imagine.

[Barnet Flame]

We’re going to be entertaining and frustrating to watch this season.

Entertaining because we have some great skaters that can create offense and really pressure opponents.

Frustrating because we stand on a foundation of quicksand. Our goalies are going to undermine everything.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I saw what you saw, but I also saw what he does well.

He's not that fleet of foot and when he relies on his feet too much he gets in trouble. However his brain/vision is so far ahead of most other defensemen (on either team) he really stands out when the play starts to develop.

I'm fine with not calling him ready right now. But the good thing is he just needs to simplify his game when the play is meant to be simple, avoid foot races he doesn't need to be in, and then let the rest of his game come to the top.

Lots of Dmen aren't fleet of foot. But as you say, he has the smarts and talent. Pair him with a guy that can skate (a guy like Hanifin), and he's an NHLer.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Lots of Dmen aren't fleet of foot. But as you say, he has the smarts and talent. Pair him with a guy that can skate (a guy like Hanifin), and he's an NHLer.

As we have both said ... if he shot left he'd have Valimaki's spot

[csnarpy]

Smiths preseason last year was terrible as well and then it all changed once the regular season started. I'm hoping for the same.

[Robbob]

I do think people are making a bit much, it is preason. Tale as old as time, kids push, vets go through the motions playing at 6 or 7.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Picture tells 1000 words

I went with a rolling 5 game on a 55 game season because it does a good job of moving out noise (one bad game), while also keeps things moving so his great starts at the beginning of the season roll off and get into 5 games segments.

A few things are true here.

1. He had a great start
2. It wasn't just a great start.

He went a half season of elite goaltending, had a dip around start 22-23, pulled that out and was a big part of the team's move up the standings in January, struggled a bit before his injury, and clearly came back too soon.

Other than his post injury sag he was a +.920 goaltender essentially all season which makes him a top half goatlender in the National Hockey League. All numbers included he's top 20.



Additionally he was .937 on the road and .901 at home, which was as odd as the team with both expected to normalize I would imagine.

What’s that chart? It’s not a 5 game rolling average of those games, must be a 5 game rolling average of YTD save %. I’m not sure what that means, because as the year goes on, sample size increases and the number obviously stabilizes.

On quick inspection, Mar 16-26 5 game stretch - 19 GA on 119 shots. .840 for that 5 game stint

Here are a couple of 5 game segments from earlier in the year -
Nov 5-18 - 18 ga 141 sa, .872
Nov 24-Dec 4 - 18 ga 145 sa, .876 (including 3x 5 GA and 1 shutout)

Fact is he had a few flat stints, and I don’t know how to use your chart.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

What’s that chart? It’s not a 5 game rolling average of those games, must be a 5 game rolling average of YTD save %. I’m not sure what that means, because as the year goes on, sample size increases and the number obviously stabilizes.

On quick inspection, Mar 16-26 5 game stretch - 19 GA on 119 shots. .840 for that 5 game stint

Here are a couple of 5 game segments from earlier in the year -
Nov 5-18 - 18 ga 141 sa, .872
Nov 24-Dec 4 - 18 ga 145 sa, .876 (including 3x 5 GA and 1 shutout)

Fact is he had a few flat stints, and I don’t know how to use your chart.

I think you're right sorry ... didn't take off the anchors.

I can redo if there's interest

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Starting goaltenders with rough preseason save percentages

Bobrovsky .819
Graubauer .825
Holtby .839
Smith .848
Jones .849
Price .862
Lundqvist .863
Luongo .873
Rinne .877
Quick .880
Varlamov .882
Reimer .887
Dubnyk .888
Hellybucyk .893
Mrazek .896
Elliott .897

Lol wow.

Again, we can't know for sure until the real games start.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think you're right sorry ... didn't take off the anchors.

I can redo if there's interest

I’d be interested, but more, once you have it for Smith, what story that implies, then out of the curiosity of how it would compare to other goalies, to see what their hot/cold distribution looks like.

In fact when I saw this, I thought of Kipper, who in my memory (which may well be rosy), seemed to follow an outing where he let in 4+ with a strong next game almost every time, letting in no more than 2. So I don’t really recall any multi-game funks out of him.

Edit: but yeah, don’t put yourself out, but if it’s easy to do just for Smith, I’d be curious to see how it looks and what story that would tell.

[Bingo]

No thanks for pointing that out ...

To be honest I had in my mind that he was showing cracks before the injury, and my mistake didn't have that pop.

Here it does

A real case for keeping his starts down.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I remember the team being hot from December through the all star break and that shows in this chart. Those numbers are something else.

[Phaneuf_Phan]

Do not buy! Oh, I thought that was the Tesla stock chart you posted.