UPD: Hanifin says he is "super close" to signing. Wants at least 5 yr deal.

[Poe969]

7 years 5.625 per

[RichKlit]

7 x 5.895 per is my guess.

[Imported_Aussie]

A super quick calculation could be to take the Skjei deal (31.5M on 6 years, 3 UFA years) and simply add an extra RFA year, such as using the Montour deal (3.3875M)
That works out to a hair under 5M a year for 7 years.
Hanifin has 4 more RFA years, which makes this a better comparable IMO.
Hanifin was better PPG last year than Skjei, and has 3 NHL years and a better draft position. But Skjei is one season removed from a 39 point season and is on a team trending into retooling vs contending, which means less likely to settle lower. Also had arbitration rights.
I think that makes the differences close to a wash.
Hoping for the low end, 7 years 4.9M per, but paying a little more would be understandable.

He isn't worth Seth Jones/Ristolainen money yet

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

A super quick calculation could be to take the Skjei deal (31.5M on 6 years, 3 UFA years) and simply add an extra RFA year, such as using the Montour deal (3.3875M)
That works out to a hair under 5M a year for 7 years.
Hanifin has 4 more RFA years, which makes this a better comparable IMO.
Hanifin was better PPG last year than Skjei, and has 3 NHL years and a better draft position. But Skjei is one season removed from a 39 point season and is on a team trending into retooling vs contending, which means less likely to settle lower. Also had arbitration rights.
I think that makes the differences close to a wash.
Hoping for the low end, 7 years 4.9M per, but paying a little more would be understandable.

He isn't worth Seth Jones/Ristolainen money yet

Matt Cane predicted his contract should be about $4.4M and his error on defencemen's contracts worth over $1.5M has been $700K. This lends credence to the idea that he could sign for around $5.1M. We'll see.

If he signs for under $5 million, I think Hanifin will rapidly become underpaid, which would be great for the Flames.

However, when Oscar Klefbom signed with the Oilers in 2016-17, he signed for 5.7% of the salary cap (7 years * $4.167M). The contract equivalent would be Hanifin signing for 7 years * $4.54M AAV. I think that would be the dream for the Flames.

[topfiverecords]

One dollar Bob.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by saXon

5.5 years at 7 mil isn't an option. It'll have to be a hard 5 or 6 years.

Personally, I'm hoping for 5.5 x 5.5.

[Gaskal]

I will guess 6 x 4.85.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I will guess 6 x 4.85.

I'd love to see that 7th year. But I think that pushes the contract over 5.25 so I'd be good with your guess.

[Roof-Daddy]

So, "super close" I guess, but not "super duper close".

[ForeverFlameFan]

5m x 7

[dammage79]

7 years, 5.3m per year. Just a guess.

[TheScorpion]

I'm gonna go with 6 x $5,000,005. Then they'll trade him to Toronto. I call it the "reverse Ian White."

[savardandjokinen]

7 years 5.25 mil. If brad can get him under that it would be such a steal. This guy could turn out to be a dandy

[SebC]

Originally Posted by RichKlit

7 x 5.895 per is my guess.

That's a higher cap hit then Dougie Hamilton, and Hamilton is the better player. I'd guess that when Treliving made the trade, it was with the intent to upgrade his cap-efficiency, not downgrade it.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SebC

That's a higher cap hit then Dougie Hamilton, and Hamilton is the better player. I'd guess that when Treliving made the trade, it was with the intent to upgrade his cap-efficiency, not downgrade it.

I don’t think that is why the trade was made at all.
Dougie has a great contract but it was signed years ago so apples to apples comparisons with Hanifin aren’t relevant
The trade was not made for short term cap reasons

[Hanafan]

Originally Posted by SebC

That's a higher cap hit then Dougie Hamilton, and Hamilton is the better player. I'd guess that when Treliving made the trade, it was with the intent to upgrade his cap-efficiency, not downgrade it.

He's not the better player though. Yes, we'll all miss his super hard, accurate wrister and big long stick, but Gio covered most of his braindead mistakes.

The only reason Brodano was split up in the first place is because Hamilton looked clueless the first 20 or 30 games and had to be put with Gio. At least Brodie is good enough and smart enough for the most part to carry his own line.

Dont be fooled by Hamiltons scoring ability. His hockey IQ is bad.

[RichKlit]

Originally Posted by SebC

That's a higher cap hit then Dougie Hamilton, and Hamilton is the better player. I'd guess that when Treliving made the trade, it was with the intent to upgrade his cap-efficiency, not downgrade it.

Different cap limit. I’ll argue that Hamilton isn’t all that much better and has more warts in his game than Hanifin.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by RichKlit

Different cap limit. I’ll argue that Hamilton isn’t all that much better and has more warts in his game than Hanifin.

Hard to tell considering how much more protected Hanifin was in zone starts. I would say that Hamilton is currently better than Hanifin, but they have similar ceilings. Hanifin carries with him a bit more uncertainty about whether he will reach that ceiling, with his highest point total so far being 32. Prior to signing his contract, Hamilton had just finished a 42 point season and was projecting sharply upward, while Hanifin's progression has been a bit flatter. With Hanifin not eligible for arbitration, he probably can't get the current equivalent of the Hamilton contract. The Dumba contract also isn't comparable, he scored 50 points before signing it.

Skjei is probably the closest comparable, so probably 5.25 X 6, or adding an extra UFA year, 5.32 X 7 (hoping for the latter)

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Hard to tell considering how much more protected Hanifin was in zone starts. I would say that Hamilton is currently better than Hanifin, but they have similar ceilings. Hanifin carries with him a bit more uncertainty about whether he will reach that ceiling, with his highest point total so far being 32. Prior to signing his contract, Hamilton had just finished a 42 point season and was projecting sharply upward, while Hanifin's progression has been a bit flatter. With Hanifin not eligible for arbitration, he probably can't get the current equivalent of the Hamilton contract.

Yeah, hard to say exactly what Hanifin's ceiling is. I didn't see many Carolina games, but going from highlights, which I know can be misleading. He is a very smart player. Very clutch and a lot of his great plays that lead to scoring chances he doesn't necessarily register an assist for, but without him and his high hockey IQ, the transition and scoring chances may not have happened.

He seems to be following the typical trajectory for a great defenseman and I have no doubt that his best years are ahead. He is the example of a team player. I have a feeling he is going to be a fan favourite very quickly.

[---Hatrick---]

It is going to be so interesting to see how Hamilton does this season without Gio. I for one believe that he benefitted from being on a pair with Gio and yes he will most likely play with a strong partner in Carolina, however I don’t think they have a D man that is on Gio’s level. IIRC Hamilton struggled heavily until he had significant time being carried by Giordano (Hence the “Woes of Dougie Hamilton” thread).

I’m calling that in a few years, we are lookin at a player in Hanafin that is superior to Hamilton and on a better contract.