What ails the Flames?

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I agree with a lot of this.

The problem is that the Flames are on the hook for the bad contracts.

And a lot of the guys on the roster are part timers. They show flashes of quality but can’t sustain it all season. The team is committed to them and other GMs are not going to do any favours

Ferland - sure he has good stats but has a disturbing trend of Rene Bourque style sometimes here, sometimes not. Also I should mention that although he has decent stats, Bernie Nicholls had a single 70 goal season and none before or after over 30. I don’t think he is a top line guy. I admire his results and effort first half of the year but he seems to me to be a 3/4 liner in a good position. He has responded well at times to the demotion to 4th line but he is not a 21 year old. This is what he is. If someone values it, leverage the asset.
Stajan - heart and soul guy, good in the room I am sure, but clearly post apex. They are in the hook for the contract and nobody will do them any favours here. It can be time to say goodbye
Lazar - some people have found hope (?) but his couple of recent goals have had some asterisks with them and he has been pretty darn awful on the whole. I think it is easy to say goodbye here too
Hathaway - basically a fringe guy. Can bring it for a few games with the adrenaline but there does not appear to be the ability to sustain the level, or any further upside. You need to put guys like this on the 4th line and rotate them because they can’t sustain it on a 3rd line, especially if they get comfortable. Probably could have been sent down for a reminder.
Chris Stewart - 6 years removed from last good season and frankly I just hope nobody gets hurt when this knucklehead sprints from rink to dressing room. I don’t care what other teams thought he could help them and put in a waiver claim, this is a worst of Tre.
Brouwer - actually I think he is a serviceable 3rd liner, and has had a few good games of late, but the contract does not look great. Then again, he has been bounced around a lot. Basically the rest of the lineup needs to be in place for him to have a defined role. He could be a swiss army knife but that is usually an upside if a guy that you know what you are using him for
Shore - who knows. Hopefully he can Shore up the 4th line

I think the Flames looked best during the 4-5 game stint where Jagr was as close to healthy as he ever was here (after getting closer to in shape and before aggravating the injury). That Bennett - Jankowski - Jagr line was actually often dangerous in December until he got hurt again.

Flames could put :
Brouwer with Backlund and Frolik. Any winger plays better with them and Tkachuk can stir the drink for any line he is on.
Bennett and Tkachuk with Jankowski. Make a 2nd/ 3rd line hard to play against.

They still need a winger with Johnny and Monahan but Ferly will have to do for this year, when he is back, then upgrade in the off season. Like you mean it.

But whatever is left over for the 4th line is awful. When Versteeg is back, decide between him and Brouwer I guess. Or put him with Monahan and Gaudreau. Ferland has been good at times but just can’t bring it 82 games a year

When the contracts are done, though, they have a lot to clean up.

Man, this has been a disappointing season.

[CliffFletcher]

The lack of a fourth line is down to draft busts of Poirier, Klimchuk, and Hunter Smith, the trades/waiver loss of Granlund and Byron, and the trading away of multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. Most teams have a regular pipeline of prospects into their 4th line. The Flames have historically struggled to achieve this fundamental building-stone of an NHL roster, and instead fill their depth positions with expensive UFAs and trades for low-ceiling grinders.

[Toonage]

Next season I expect a better 4th line (duh) with more skill. Mangiapane & Dube should be there. Hasn't been an energy line in forever. That'll help.

[flambers]

Next season, GM needs to acquire more forwards that have an offensive ability.

(i.e. not Stajan, Brouwer, Versteeg, Lazar, Jagr, etc...)

This is an ongoing issue that plagued the team all season......

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The lack of a fourth line is down to draft busts of Poirier, Klimchuk, and Hunter Smith, the trades/waiver loss of Granlund and Byron, and the trading away of multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. Most teams have a regular pipeline of prospects into their 4th line. The Flames have historically struggled to achieve this fundamental building-stone of an NHL roster, and instead fill their depth positions with expensive UFAs and trades for low-ceiling grinders.

Organizationally the flames have never been great at developing talent from within. I don’t know why but it often feels like we either give up too early, allow a coach to decide on a young players usage and then give up or just fail to develop impact players at the ahl level. It seems like a foregone conclusion that andersson valimaki and fox all start in the ahl next season, and kulak has only stuck up here full time because bartkowski is terrible but that wasn’t until the coach tried to use him as often as possible until kulak beat him out.

I’m all for young players earning their shot at playing with the big club but I just don’t see us doing things even remotely similar to Boston (mcavoy up killing it, also a relatively young d core), Dallas with klingberg, St. Louis with pareyko a couple years ago, tampa withyheir forwards, etc...

I know the response to this will be “look at gaudreau, Monahan and tkachuk” and I would argue that they all developed on their own outside of the ahl and transcend that process.

The fact that janko looks good so far is maybe a testament to the fact that we are changing that lack of development a little bit but I am still skeptical.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flambers

Next season, GM needs to acquire more forwards that have an offensive ability.

(i.e. not Stajan, Brouwer, Versteeg, Lazar, Jagr, etc...)

This is an ongoing issue that plagued the team all season......

I think Lazar and Jagr are/were good depth guys, however their proximity to lesser players definitely impacted their production.

I think on a 4th line with other young, pace-pushing players, Lazar will pay off. We’re already seeing gains in his game, and it’s flat out ridiculous he’s been scratched as of late in favour of Stewart and Hathaway. Hathaway doesn’t bring what he should on a daily basis. Lazar’s effort has been consistent and effective for a month+ now.

[Flames_F.T.W]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Monahan can finish but he cannot be relied upon to drive a line, especially a first line. Perhaps it is GG's system but Monahan has never taken over a game this year. Gaudreau takes over games and uses Monahan to put pucks in. He is a very good player but I believe Backlund and Tkachuk coould generate more offense than him if given the same opportunity.

Ferland is a good player too but this will almost surely be his career season, and Janko is too old to get a lot better than he is. The #1c in waiting aura is definitely not there anymore.

I set the post before Kulak and Janko were drafted. They're both NHLers but not even close to being impact guys. The 2013 draft was a total failure (though the other players available are not world beaters), 2014 was awful.

2015, 2016, 2017 look alright, but none of the Flames drafted there are looking like impact guys. Maybe Andersson and Valimaki., but knowing the Flames I'm not liking their odds.

This is hilarious for its accuracy.

[shadowlord]

Depth issues continue to hamper Flames
By Travis Yost
https://www.tsn.ca/talent/depth-issu...ames-1.1018066

It doesn't tell us anything we already don't know about depth, but here are tidbits that caught my eye:

- Brodie in particular is actually the team’s most deployed defender at even strength, which is noteworthy because of how poor his results have been this year.

- I think you can comfortably slide the forward group into three buckets. The top right quadrant – the one featuring Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Micheal Ferland, Matt Stajan, and Garnet Hathaway – have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

This is hilarious for its accuracy.

That sells Monahan short, but it's still kinda true.

Monahan can find an opening like nobody I've ever seen. If the D makes even a slight mistake, he's in position and capitalizing before they can blink. But he doesn't force mistakes any more than the average player, so if the D stay in position and their coverage is good, he doesn't create anything.

Gaudreau on the other hand forces mistakes all over the ice. He beats guys one-on-one, pulls a defender out of position before moving the puck into the hole they created, and changes the angle of attack with his skating before the D can reposition.

It's why they're such a deadly combo: Monahan needs someone to create an opening, and he finds that soft spot in the coverage every time. And Gaudreau creates opportunities for his linemates every time the puck touches his stick, but his linemate still needs to be there to finish. Pull Monahan away from Gaudreau, and he doesn't get nearly as many dangerous shots and his scoring will go down. But pull Gaudreau away from Monahan, and you'll see a ton of plays where his linemate doesn't see the opening, or doesn't get his stick on the puck, or can't finish an open chance.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Depth issues continue to hamper Flames
By Travis Yost
https://www.tsn.ca/talent/depth-issu...ames-1.1018066

It doesn't tell us anything we already don't know about depth, but here are tidbits that caught my eye:

- Brodie in particular is actually the team’s most deployed defender at even strength, which is noteworthy because of how poor his results have been this year.

- I think you can comfortably slide the forward group into three buckets. The top right quadrant – the one featuring Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Micheal Ferland, Matt Stajan, and Garnet Hathaway – have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season.

Yeah. Bolded is incredibly noteworthy.

Matt Stajan and Garnet Hathaway have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season in the same way as Johnny, Mony and Ferly???

How??

[shadowlord]

Originally Posted by Karl

Yeah. Bolded is incredibly noteworthy.

Matt Stajan and Garnet Hathaway have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season in the same way as Johnny, Mony and Ferly???

How??

The article groups them together when comparing percentage of shots for the Flames vs percentage of goals for the Flames when that specific player is on the ice, 5v5.

Don't ask me any more, I'm not an advanced stat person.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Monahan can finish but he cannot be relied upon to drive a line, especially a first line. Perhaps it is GG's system but Monahan has never taken over a game this year. Gaudreau takes over games and uses Monahan to put pucks in. He is a very good player but I believe Backlund and Tkachuk coould generate more offense than him if given the same opportunity.

Ferland is a good player too but this will almost surely be his career season, and Janko is too old to get a lot better than he is. The #1c in waiting aura is definitely not there anymore.

I set the post before Kulak and Janko were drafted. They're both NHLers but not even close to being impact guys. The 2013 draft was a total failure (though the other players available are not world beaters), 2014 was awful.

2015, 2016, 2017 look alright, but none of the Flames drafted there are looking like impact guys. Maybe Andersson and Valimaki., but knowing the Flames I'm not liking their odds.

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

This is hilarious for its accuracy.

Originally Posted by Kovaz

That sells Monahan short, but it's still kinda true.

Monahan can find an opening like nobody I've ever seen. If the D makes even a slight mistake, he's in position and capitalizing before they can blink. But he doesn't force mistakes any more than the average player, so if the D stay in position and their coverage is good, he doesn't create anything.

Gaudreau on the other hand forces mistakes all over the ice. He beats guys one-on-one, pulls a defender out of position before moving the puck into the hole they created, and changes the angle of attack with his skating before the D can reposition.

It's why they're such a deadly combo: Monahan needs someone to create an opening, and he finds that soft spot in the coverage every time. And Gaudreau creates opportunities for his linemates every time the puck touches his stick, but his linemate still needs to be there to finish. Pull Monahan away from Gaudreau, and he doesn't get nearly as many dangerous shots and his scoring will go down. But pull Gaudreau away from Monahan, and you'll see a ton of plays where his linemate doesn't see the opening, or doesn't get his stick on the puck, or can't finish an open chance.

Guys, scoring in the NHL is probably the hardest thing to do. It's why GMs pay a premium for it. Money scores the best kind of goals; the game winning variety. This means he is most productive when the team needs him the most.

If it was as easy as lining up with Johnny, then bricks like Lazar, Bennet and Brouwer would be productive on the top line.

That takes nothing away form Johnny.

This line of thinking sells Money and Ferland short.

I'm not even touching the chemistry thing, which you could also argue given the top line drop in points since Ferland's injury.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Karl

Yeah. Bolded is incredibly noteworthy.

Matt Stajan and Garnet Hathaway have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season in the same way as Johnny, Mony and Ferly???

How??

FWIW, and for all the complaints, Stajan isn't on the ice for many goals against. In fact, his line causes or creates a fair bit of offensive zone time. They just don't do anything about it. With just a little more finish, he and Lazar would be CP darlings IMO. I think their actual effort and positioning are pretty OK.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Guys, scoring in the NHL is probably the hardest thing to do. It's why GMs pay a premium for it. Money scores the best kind of goals; the game winning variety. This means he is most productive when the team needs him the most.

If it was as easy as lining up with Johnny, then bricks like Lazar, Bennet and Brouwer would be productive on the top line.

That takes nothing away form Johnny.

This line of thinking sells Money and Ferland short.

I'm not even touching the chemistry thing, which you could also argue given the top line drop in points since Ferland's injury.

I'm wondering if those guys thought Brett Hull was an elite player. Monahan isn't at Hull's level, but he's got the same kind of skill set.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Karl

Yeah. Bolded is incredibly noteworthy.

Matt Stajan and Garnet Hathaway have really slaughtered the opposition for most of the season in the same way as Johnny, Mony and Ferly???

How??

Well, Hathaway and Stajan are both above 50% in shot attempts for vs against, and above 50% in goals for and goals against at 5v5.

The difference between Stajan/Hathaway and Monahan/Gaudreau/Ferland is that the first line has put up 51 even strength goals for, and Stajan and Hathaway have ... five.

So "slaughtering" the opposition is a case of not drilling down into the data deep enough. This logic would have you believe that a skater who has scored 49 even strength goals for but been on the ice for 50 against is less valuable than a skater who has scored 2 and but only 1 against.

[Classic_Sniper]

Here is the stat of all stats that that should tell everyone what truly ails this team.

The 1st line has produced at least 1 goal or more in 30 of this team’s 32 wins this year (27 by Gaudreau). That means thag only 6.25% of Calgary’s wins this season have not required some form of production from the 1st line.

The lack of scoring depth is the real reason why we’re not a better team right now. If 30 of the team’s 32 wins this season requires contribution from a Gaudreau or Monahan, that proves we’re too top heavy and too reliant on 1 or 2 guys each night.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Here is the stat of all stats that that should tell everyone what truly ails this team.

The 1st line has produced at least 1 goal or more in 30 of this team’s 32 wins this year (27 by Gaudreau). That means thag only 6.25% of Calgary’s wins this season have not required some form of production from the 1st line.

The lack of scoring depth is the real reason why we’re not a better team right now. If 30 of the team’s 32 wins this season requires contribution from a Gaudreau or Monahan, that proves we’re too top heavy and too reliant on 1 or 2 guys each night.

Add in the fact that Backlund and Frolik are uncharacteristically poor in their finishing this year and you've basically only have 3 guys who can 'reliably' score in Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Add in the fact that Backlund and Frolik are uncharacteristically poor in their finishing this year and you've basically only have 3 guys who can 'reliably' score in Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk.

Ferland has 20 goals, Hamilton has 14, and Gio has 10. That ain't shabby.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Ferland has 20 goals, Hamilton has 14, and Gio has 10. That ain't shabby.

Except that Ferland plays on the 1st line and Gaudreau and Monahan contribute to a lot of his production. Same goes to Hamilton, Giordano and even Tkachuk on the PP to an extent.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Here is the stat of all stats that that should tell everyone what truly ails this team.

The 1st line has produced at least 1 goal or more in 30 of this team’s 32 wins this year (27 by Gaudreau). That means thag only 6.25% of Calgary’s wins this season have not required some form of production from the 1st line.

The lack of scoring depth is the real reason why we’re not a better team right now. If 30 of the team’s 32 wins this season requires contribution from a Gaudreau or Monahan, that proves we’re too top heavy and too reliant on 1 or 2 guys each night.

Maybe the reason our supporting players don't contribute is because Gulutzan completely misscasts them in their roles. Brouwer is unable to score anymore, but we keep putting him on the PP. Could we maybe try someone with a little scoring touch in that role? Maybe Jankowski? We bring up our leading AHL scorerer and don't give him a sniff of any offensive chances. Just plug away on the 3/4 line and not even a chance on the PP.

I'm not saying we have great scoring depth, because it sure doesn't look like it. But when your head coach missuses the little depth you have it certainly doesn't help.