How far off are the Calgary Flames from cup contending status?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Sure, but in the same five years the Devils were 6th in the conference, the Rangers were 5th and the Sharks were 6th. So 3 of the 5 runners up came from the bottom half of their conference. And the Bruins were also the runners up at 4th, and the Blackhawks won a cup from 4th as well.

So 7 of the 10 teams to make the finals in the last 5 years were 4th seeds or worse. That looks like a lot of parity to me.

I don't really consider top half of the playoff seed as being "anyone who gets in has a chance" They're a top team.

Anyway, it's misleading, and I'd rather not hope to be the next exception.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by polak

It all depends on Bennett and Tkachuk.

If Bennett follows a similar trajectory to Monahan and Tkachuk does the same then we'll be contending in a year or two.

It Bennett plateaus at a 40 point guy and Tkachuk does the same then we'll probably need to restart the rebuild and will regretting all of those rebuild jokes we made about other teams...

I think even if they're both 40 point guys we can still have a chance to contend. Monahan and Gaudreau are following very closely in the steps of Kane and Toews, and will only get better for another few years. And the Blackhawks have been successful with a rotating door of merely "decent" players around those two guys. If you have your studs up front and you're shored up between the pipes, you don't need need four 60 point players, in fact that's pretty rare for any team. You just need a couple dominant, game changing types in your lineup. Johnny and Sean aren't there yet, but they're getting close. If they can figure their game out on the road..

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

And the Blackhawks have been successful with a rotating door of merely "decent" players around those two guys.

Keith, Hossa, Sharp, weren't players I would describe as "decent." The same could be said about players like Brodie on the Flames, but if Tkachuk and Bennett develop into 40 point players, that's not even the equivalent of the "Saad-like" players the Hawks have had, let alone Hossa and Sharp.

[thefoss1957]

Step one "Make the Playoffs"...in the Pacific, that means, stealing into a top 3 spot...this seems doable for your guys, especially if a Cali team cycles downward...

As far as "contender"...all playoff teams are exactly ONE HOT GOALTENDER away from a Cup.

Inferior teams (relatively speaking) have ridden the "hot goalie" to the promised land before. Your Flames DON'T have to be "stacked", they just have to get to the sprint at the end.

Again, this seems doable for your guys.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Was it this thread or another where someone mentioned Bennett plateauing at around 40 points... I can't being to describe how chicken little and stupid that is. Bennett beat Monahan's rookie total and was 2 goals shy of 20, at 19. No he didn't explode out of the gate but he's got star player written all over him and has given no indication of busting like that.

"Johnny "wouldn't have had those totals at 19. Bennett is going to be a more important player than Gaudreau moving forward.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Bennett is going to be a more important player than Gaudreau moving forward.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I hate the attitude that you should just make the playoffs and anything can happen. That's the sort of attitude that only allows you to win three playoff series series in ten years with the best forward and best goalie the franchise has ever seen.

I wouldn't want a GM building a team to have the "anything can happen in the playoffs" attitude. No problem with players, coaches, or fans having it though.

[Vulcan]

There's a lot of subtleties that go on with a team making the playoffs. Some just scratch and claw to make it like we did in 14/15 and predictably we didn't go far. Others like Chicago stroll through the season but usually have a lot left when the real games begin. St. Louis is a solid team but never goes far. Too me they work hard the whole season but have little left for the playoffs. This seems like a sentence to purgatory. We'll know it when we are contenders because we'll be capable of winning any game, regular season or playoffs.

[jlh2640]

Far away still. Quite far away

I love the following players and see them as potential key pieces long term.

Tkachuk Monahan Gaudreau Backlund Ferland Brouwer Bennett Bouma
Gio Brodie Hamilton Jokipaka

I'm hoping Gillies Shinkaruk Jankowski Parsons Andersson Wotherspoon Kylington Poirier can become legit NHL players. But the flames are hoping on some prospects to meet or exceed expectations.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by thefoss1957

Inferior teams (relatively speaking) have ridden the "hot goalie" to the promised land before.

No they haven't. When has this happened in the last decade since the 04/05 lockout?

2016 Pens - A superior team with multiple superstars that was basically murdering the league from the All Star break onward.
2015 Hawks - A superior team that has consistent success thanks to its depth.
2014 Kings - A superior team that has consistent success in the playoffs thanks to its depth.
2013 Hawks - A superior team that has consistent success thanks to its depth.
2012 Kings - A superior team that has consistent success in the playoffs thanks to its depth.
2011 Bruins - A consistent cup contender for years afterwards thanks to its depth.
2010 Hawks - A superior team that has consistent success thanks to its depth. And anyway Niemi had a .910 sv%.
2009 Pens - A superior team with multiple superstars that had just made back to back finals. And anyway Fleury had a .908 sv%.
2008 Wings - A superior team that was the measuring stick of success for the whole league for most of two decades.
2007 Ducks - A superior team that had a 48-20 record and 110 points that year, with two hall of famers on the blue line.
2006 Hurricanes - A superior team that had a 52-22 record and 112 points that year, mostly because of offense (their 294 goals for that season is the most of any cup winner in 20 years).

Yeah, you need your goalie to play well. But on some of those winners, he was just "good", not great, and on the teams that had great goaltending performances, they had a hell of a lot of other things going for them too. Quick and Thomas had unreal performances in '11 and '12, but those teams were juggernauts.

[polak]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

Far away still. Quite far away

I love the following players and see them as potential key pieces long term.

Tkachuk Monahan Gaudreau Backlund Ferland Brouwer Bennett Bouma
Gio Brodie Hamilton Jokipaka

I'm hoping Gillies Shinkaruk Jankowski Parsons Andersson Wotherspoon Kylington Poirier can become legit NHL players. But the flames are hoping on some prospects to meet or exceed expectations.

Bolded probably won't be Flames after their current contracts expire. Rightfully so.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

Far away still. Quite far away

I love the following players and see them as potential key pieces long term.

Tkachuk Monahan Gaudreau Backlund Ferland Brouwer Bennett Bouma
Gio Brodie Hamilton Jokipaka

I'm hoping Gillies Shinkaruk Jankowski Parsons Andersson Wotherspoon Kylington Poirier can become legit NHL players. But the flames are hoping on some prospects to meet or exceed expectations.

If you actually think we're "Quite far away" then you must think the team is absolutely screwed right?

The Flames have star players in their prime and are a cap team. Moves are going to be made when it's time to pay a starter goalie, Tkachuk and Bennett big dollars. This team will be shedding star power after a few years, not adding to it.

Rebuild is over and the Flames should be a playoff team next season. Too many new pieces to say how far they can go currently though.

[Zulu29]

2-3 years we should be a real threat to push for a cup.

[Firebot]

Flames are not that far off.

Calgary's goaltending was so atrociously bad last year, that the year's 260 goals against was the worst GA since the high scoring days way back in 1992-93. Yes even worse then the Young Guns era.

Calgary's goaltending was so atrociously bad last year, that they were 30th by a full .010 point at .892

Flames were deceptive in 2014-15 and a fall back was inevitable, but their crashing to the basement had much more to do with goaltending than any other factor. That has now been fixed. Better goaltending will fix other parts of the game, by allowing players to defend the rebound trusting their goalie rather than the initial shot.

This is the final year of the rebuild. Bad contracts are expiring, star players will be maturing this year, and while they will likely make the playoffs, it won't be until next year that we can expect them to not just be in the top 6, but start to become a potential threat.

An Elliot / Gillies tandem in net until Gillies is ready
Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk, Brouwer, Frolik, Jankowski+
Brodie, Giordano, Hamilton, Jokipakka, one of Kylington or Andersson

One or two prospects will likely find their way in too (Shinkaruk very likely could be a huge steal)

Future is looking bright, and the core is likely set for a very long time.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by heep223

It's actually a pretty accurate statement. If we want the Flames to be true contenders we'll need Bennett playing as a centre, to be the more important piece.

Contending teams have that strong 1-2 punch down the middle. Flames fans should know most of all what it's like building around a winger, no matter how elite he is, that it's not a recipe for success.

Obviously having both being good players is ideal. But IMO there is nothing wrong with saying that Bennett needs to be the more important (but maybe not exactly 'better') player going forward.

[MarkGio]

You need a line-up with no holes in it. The Flames still need a top line RW. Plus the coach is unknown.

[heep223]

I actually don't think the Flames need a top line RWer. There were plenty of holes on the stanley cup winning teams of the past 10 years. Not a single one of them had 6 legitimate "top 6" forwards.

[Demetric]

3 playoff rounds

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by heep223

I actually don't think the Flames need a top line RWer. There were plenty of holes on the stanley cup winning teams of the past 10 years. Not a single one of them had 6 legitimate "top 6" forwards.

They did, but "top 6 production" is not "top line production". Second liners like Frolik and Backlund have top 6 production especially at 5v5. Now what you're talking about is top line production, and I would say you want four 55-70 point forwards and at least one of them should shoot with different handedness from the others. Ideally two of the four should play centre. That is pretty consistent a trend IMO. If they don't hit 55+ that season they still have to be guys who have done it in the recent past/immediate future and can summon it up in the playoffs. If you only have three such forwards then you need even more elite capability from them.

2006 Hurricanes
C Brind'Amour L
C Staal L
W Williams R
W Stillman L

2007 Ducks
C McDonald L
W Selanne R
C Getzlaf R
W Kunitz L

2008 Red Wings
C Datsyuk L
C Zetterberg L
W Franzen L
W Holmstrom L


2009 Penguins
C Malkin L
C Crosby L
W Kunitz L


2010/13/15 Blackhawks
C Toews L
W Kane L
W Hossa L
C Sharp R (2010)
W Sharp R (2013/2015)

2011 Bruins
W Horton R
C Krejci R
W Lucic L
C Bergeron R

2012 Kings
C Kopitar L
W Carter R
W Williams R
W Brown R

2014 Kings
C Kopitar L
C Carter R
W Gaborik R
W Williams R

2016 Penguins
Crosby L
Malkin L
Kessel R

There are gonna be exceptions but I think that is the blueprint. I guess we're banking on guys like Brouwer and Chiasson to compensate the handed-ness, with Tkachuk/Bennett/Monahan/Gaudreau as our four expected 55+ point guys.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

They did, but "top 6 production" is not "top line production". Second liners like Frolik and Backlund have top 6 production especially at 5v5. Now what you're talking about is top line production, and I would say you want four 55-70 point forwards and at least one of them should shoot with different handedness from the others. Ideally two of the four should play centre. That is pretty consistent a trend IMO. If they don't hit 55+ that season they still have to be guys who have done it in the recent past/immediate future and can summon it up in the playoffs. If you only have three such forwards then you need even more elite capability from them.

2006 Hurricanes
C Brind'Amour L
C Staal L
W Williams R
W Stillman L

2007 Ducks
C McDonald L
W Selanne R
C Getzlaf R
W Kunitz L

2008 Red Wings
C Datsyuk L
C Zetterberg L
W Franzen L
W Holmstrom L


2009 Penguins
C Malkin L
C Crosby L
W Kunitz L


2010/13/15 Blackhawks
C Toews L
W Kane L
W Hossa L
C Sharp R (2010)
W Sharp R (2013/2015)

2011 Bruins
W Horton R
C Krejci R
W Lucic L
C Bergeron R

2012 Kings
C Kopitar L
W Carter R
W Williams R
W Brown R

2014 Kings
C Kopitar L
C Carter R
W Gaborik R
W Williams R

2016 Penguins
Crosby L
Malkin L
Kessel R

There are gonna be exceptions but I think that is the blueprint. I guess we're banking on guys like Brouwer and Chiasson to compensate the handed-ness, with Tkachuk/Bennett/Monahan/Gaudreau as our four expected 55+ point guys.

Even if only 3 of Tkachuk/Bennett/Monahan/Gaudreau are 55 to 70+ players, the Flames have three 40 to 60 point defensemen to help make up the difference as well. But I think it's not unreasonable to expect all of Tkachuk/Bennett/Monahan/Gaudreau to get there soon. Not this year likely, but next year and certainly the year after that they should all be in that range.

The pessimists will disagree, but I think playoffs this year and true contenders starting in 17/18 with a window that lasts as long as Tkachuk/Bennett/Monahan/Gaudreau/Brodie/Hamilton remain top players or are replaced by similar. Hopefully that window is at least a decade before having to return to another rebuild.