Rate the Flames 2016 NHL Draft

[EldrickOnIce]

While Bleacher Report is far from an authority when it comes to hockey, or maybe anything, but they gave the Flames the highest rating in the draft, and called Tkachuk the best pick of the draft

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles...-notable-picks

[questionmotives]

Tkachuk falling to #6 is fantastic. That said, can we pump the brakes just a little bit? Not trying to crash the party; I was upset thinking he was about to land in Vancouver and cursed loud enough when Jim Benning said "From the London Knights..." to scare my dog.

Setting expectations too high for this kid is a concern. Certainly he looks as though he has the type of game that should translate to the NHL, but every draft pick carries an inherent risk, even with Tkachuk falling to the Flames at #6 overall. He will more than likely become an impact player on this team in the near future, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt to ease into his professional career. Monahan and Bennett making the transition so quickly have raised expectations in terms of what to expect from a high first-round pick, and I hope Tkachuk is no different.

Different draft, different years, but fans were over the moon with the Sven Baertschi pick while the verdict wasn't out yet on this Gaudreau kid taken in the fourth round.

I love Dan LeBatard referring to professional sports drafts as hope trafficking, and I couldn't agree more. I will trust that the Flames scouting staff did their homework, but grading the draft at this point, while fun for fans, is a guessing game.

IMO, the acquisition of Brian Elliott is by far the best and most important move that the Flames made. Tkachuk could certainly make the roster, but Elliott gives the Flames a legitimate number one goaltender with the flexibility to pursue one or two coveted free agents, with a strong possibility of extending him if things pan out.

Can't wait for September to see how it all plays out.

[Point Blank]

Not gonna quote you New Era since that was super long. But the whole point of the drafts after 1st are getting either A.) players who can play but are undersized, or B.) large players lacking key fundamentals but with the potential to improve. Obviously if a player is large and can play they'd be picked in the 1st round.
The likelihood of making the NHL is a balance between size and skill. I'd say large players who can't skate don't necessarily have a better chance of making the NHL than a smart, skilled player who is undersized. The scouting staff isn't dumb; I'm sure they take into account all of the factors when projecting a player's NHL potential. And it just so happens that they see Adam Fox's hockey smarts vastly outweigh his small stature to pick him in the second round. I think that's a fantastic philosophy.

[Geeoff]

I don't know much about the specific players we selected but Tkachuk looks like a gem. Also, mathematically, having 9 picks gives us a good chance of hitting on some of these guys. Elliot is a huge upgrade on Hiller and Ramo, so that's nice.

[sun]

Originally Posted by New Era

Wasn't a rant. Believe it or not, things that don't agree with your worldview are not rants. It was a measured approach of admitting there is a lot of assessment that needs to be done to evaluate this draft. Just because the Flames drafted Tkachuk does not automatically make this a successful draft. There are lots of questions to be asked to determine if this is a good draft for the team. You know, will any of the players drafted slot in above those picked in previous drafts? What are the odds of the players selected making it to the NHL? How does the Flames draft stack up against the teams in the division and conference? Did the other teams have better or worse drafts and did they improve their systems more than the Flames did theirs?

Outside of Tkachuk who exactly did they pick with "jam" that has a serious chance of making the NHL? I'm trying to be somewhat pragmatic about this and look at the players objectively. I'm not going to let the hype of the draft get in the way of looking at what the Flames just drafted and the odds of them being a player. So after Tkachuk this is what we selected.

54th pick - Tyler Parsons (G) - N/A.
56th pick - Dillon Dube (C) 5'11, 182 - bellow average size.
66th pick - Adam Fox (D) 5'10, 185 - tiny defenseman.
96th pick - Linus Lindstrom (C) 6'0, 165 - needs 30-40 pounds.
126th pick - Mitchell Mattson (C) 6'4, 201 - nice size.
156th pick - Eetu Tuuola (RW) 6'3, 227 - better size.
166th pick - Matthew Phillips (C) 5'7, 161 - tiny forward.
186th pick - Stepan Falkovsky (D) 6'7, 225 - giant size!

Like it or not size does matter in the NHL. And like it or not, when you are selected does matter when it comes to making it to the NHL. The later you are selected the smaller the odds of you making it to the NHL are. According to an article by Scott Cullen here are the odds of the latest picks making it to the NHL and playing 100 games, just based on historical success.

54th pick - 33% of playing 100 games.
56th pick - 29% of playing 100 games.
66th pick - 37.5% of playing 100 games.
96th pick - 24.5% of playing 100 games.
126th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
156th pick - 15% of playing 100 games.
166th pick - 16% of playing 100 games.
186th pick - 10.3% of playing 100 games.

That is without taking into consideration the size of the player. I think we can agree that the odds of smaller players making it to the NHL are stacked against them. The Flames early picks were all on smaller players. The guys with NHL size are all later picks in rounds where they have a 16% chance, or less, of making it to the NHL and playing more than a season. Based on that you'll have to excuse my lack of excitement with this draft after the first round because of the way the size and success percentages stack up.

One of the things I like to look at is how the new picks stack up against our current prospects. Do they displace anyone on the depth chart, or do they filter in behind what we already have. In all honesty I still hold out hope for these guys, but I don't see anyone after Tkachuk that should be displacing anyone in the system at their positions. So I don't see this a huge success from that perspective.

When you consider organizational needs the team did achieve a couple goals. They grabbed a top end offensive talent. That is a big win. They also traded for a NHL starter. Another big win. So just from that end the Flames did well. Compared to their competition I think they did much better in this regard. They really checked off a couple big check boxes, so this is a big success. It would have been nice if they had as good a second day as they did a first day of the draft, but on the surface I think they did well.

As I said, still weighing this out and doing some comparison shopping. Not sure how good a draft this was. Day one was an A+. Day two? I'm not sure. It looks really below average to me. Still have to filter through each team and see how their draft stacked up as well, how it supported their philosophy, and if they got some good fit in the long run. Only then will a reasonable grade be assigned.

On the edge of my seat.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by New Era

I think we can agree that the odds of smaller players making it to the NHL are stacked against them.

This is the assumption on which your whole argument rests. I think we'd agree that all else being equal, smaller players have worse odds but all else is not equal. Smaller players get discounted in the draft, and thus may have similar odds as larger, less skilled players at similar draft positions, or may have lower odds but higher upside for a similar expected value.

[McG]

From what I have read about the players that we took, the draft itself was likely an A-. I don't actually know what would have made it an A++ except dumping some contracts...which isn't exactly about drafting.

Wanted to add this though...and this is absolutely key to me. Drafting is only half and perhaps a lot less than half of the equation. Our philosophy must be "Draft and develop, draft and develop, draft and develop...to infinity". There are very, very few players that can be drafted and added to an nhl roster without immense patience and development.

Look at the Greasers; draft top players year after year, but they stagnate, and anyone not from the first round almost never makes it to the nhl with an oilers jersey on.

So, great first part for all of these good choices of players...now comes the real added value part and that is the development of these young men into the skill and mentality required to be an everyday pro at the NHL level.

All of the kick butt drafting and trading cannot make up for a crap development program.

So, over to you Hockey Operations and Player Development!

A- drafting...TBD for development.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think we did as well as expected. We got a prospect that is as good as any outside of the top 3. I think most people would agree. Plus we partially filled a huge hole in the net. While Elliot wouldn't have been my top choice, the acquisition cost and contract are great and give the team flexibility going forward. Most of the picks further down the draft are shooting for the moon which I think is the best strategy to take and for years it seemed like Flames management more often than not went for the "safer" picks. It used to drive me nuts. After the 2nd round, draft picks are not worth that much and most players have a low probability of success, so you might as well go for the riskier "high reward" types.

I would go so far as to say we did better this year than last. Of course, I think Hamilton is slightly overrated by many and some of the prospects available last year where we would have drafted were excellent. This year, we filled a big current need and kept our first rounder (and hit a home run with it). We couldn't realistically expect more IMO.

[cral12]

First impression = Definite A grade from my perspective.

[SportsJunky]

I give it an A.

If you look at the aggregate rankings from most of the major draft "experts" before the draft was held, Calgary did very well. In every instance, except the goalie pick, the player that the Flames drafted was drafted after their aggregate rank. That shows great value.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2048997020

Matthew Tkachuk ranked 4.6 - drafted 6th
Tyler Parsons ranked 64.9 - drafted 54th
Dillon Dube ranked 43.9 - drafted 56th
Adam Fox ranked 49.9 - drafted 66th
Linus Lindstrom ranked 80.7 - drafted 96th
Mitch Mattson ranked 102.5 - drafted 126th
Eetu Tuulola ranked 108 - drafted 156th
Matthew Phillips ranked 124.5 - drafted 166th
Stepan Falkovsky ranked 140.4 - drafted 186th

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Given attrition, any single draft where you can add 2 solid pieces to the club counts an A.

Tkachuk and Elliot count as that for me.

For me, I think this draft rates marginally higher than last year's.

[Gaudfather]

I just spent some time this afternoon catching up on some of the draft day interviews on the Flames website. Just wanted to comment that Ryan Leslie does an excellent job conducting these interviews. He has a nice way about him, yet still covers a lot of ground. Definitely better than some of the Sportsnet crew.

[JohnnyT]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

I just spent some time this afternoon catching up on some of the draft day interviews on the Flames website. Just wanted to comment that Ryan Leslie does an excellent job conducting these interviews. He has a nice way about him, yet still covers a lot of ground. Definitely better than some of the Sportsnet crew.

Should also be mentioned that the Flames PR staff won the Dillman Award for best PR team in the Western Conference this weekend

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=878669

[Greybeard]

Solid A.... really the first round is what counts most and we were fortunate to get Tkachuk. Elliot for a second rounder i think is the steal of the draft.... being able to turn second rounders into definitive needs that can help your team now is a super bonus.

the rest of the draft... who knows...

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Greybeard

Solid A.... really the first round is what counts most and we were fortunate to get Tkachuk. Elliot for a second rounder i think is the steal of the draft.... being able to turn second rounders into definitive needs that can help your team now is a super bonus.

the rest of the draft... who knows...

Organizational needs basis, they get an A. They filled the holes they needed to and have given the rebuild a serious shot in the arm. I like the look of a number of the picks in rounds 2-4....if any of those players evolve this will be one of the best drafts in franchise history.

[CaptainCrunch]

A

Its rare that when you draft BPA that the player that you get is the perfect type of player and perfect fit to fill a hole, but there we are.

The Elliot trade is going to be a steal, not only because he's a good goalie and a great cap hit for a starter, but also because he's a solid addition to the leadership core.

[Super-Rye]

I really liked the Flames approach in this draft, although I'll stop short of giving them a letter grade.

Having Tkachuk fall to them at 6 and grabbing a legitimate starting goalie for an early 2nd round pick was a fantastic start to the draft. Everything else is just gravy.

If Tkachuk can make the team out of camp I'm going to bet he spends most of the season playing with Sam Bennett, although the ultimate goal is probably to have him play with Johnny and Mony.

The Flames have now had 3 big OHL stars fall to them at 6, 4, and 6. It's worked really well for them the last 2 times. I look forward to seeing how Tkachuk transitions into the pro game and if he can show that he is, in fact, ready for "The Show" as soon as this upcoming season.

Beyond that I really like the Flames approach to this draft. They focused on skill, IQ, and competitiveness. They took the smallest guy (Phillips) in the draft and one of the biggest guys (Falkovsky) in the draft.

If any one of these later round guys hits, they have potential to hit huge. You don't have to tell Flames fans how good a guy like Matthew Phillips could be if he is able to continue his progression through the professional ranks.

The Flames went into Buffalo with a glaring hole in net, and they filled it without opening up another hole on the roster.

The Flames prospect cupboards seemingly lacked skilled forwards. They Flames left Buffalo with more than a few of those.

Overall, a very successful draft.

[SuperMatt18]

It's interesting because it is rare that the first drafted forward from the OHL doesn't become a great NHLer.

Going back 10 years now:

2006: Jordan Staal (2nd)
2007: Patrick Kane (1st)
2008: Stamkos (1st)
2009: Tavares (1st)
2010: Hall (1st)
2011: Landeskog (2nd)
2012: Yakupov (1st)
2013: Monahan (6th)
2014: Bennett (4th)
2015: McDavid (1st)
2016: Tkachuk (6th)

So pretty good company for Tkachuk - and outside of Yakupov scouts have rarely been wrong on top forwards out of the OHL.

[Southside]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's interesting because it is rare that the first drafted forward from the OHL doesn't become a great NHLer.

Going back 10 years now:

2006: Jordan Staal (2nd)
2007: Patrick Kane (1st)
2008: Stamkos (1st)
2009: Tavares (1st)
2010: Hall (1st)
2011: Landeskog (2nd)
2012: Yakupov (1st)
2013: Monahan (6th)
2014: Bennett (4th)
2015: McDavid (1st)
2016: Tkachuk (6th)

So pretty good company for Tkachuk - and outside of Yakupov scouts have rarely been wrong on top forwards out of the OHL.

2016: Juolevi (5th)?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Southside

2016: Juolevi (5th)?

First drafted "forward" from the OHL