Will Matthew Thatchuk play the year with the flames?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

There's no way he makes it imo

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Tkachuk is not ready. Give him every shot in camp, give him 9 games, then let him tear up the OHL.

I'm wondering why the assuredness from you guys? I mean of course there's a chance he does or doesn't make it, but many respected hockey analysts have him being NHL ready. Any particular reasons, or just guessing and then adding assuredness to your opinion for effect?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I'm wondering why the assuredness from you guys? I mean of course there's a chance he does or doesn't make it, but many respected hockey analysts have him being NHL ready. Any particular reasons, or just guessing and then adding assuredness to your opinion for effect?

Simple odds I guess. Only 1 or two guys per year make it. I know almost nothing about his playing style other than what I saw in the memorial cup. Not a comment on his game as much as a general comment about the odds of a 6th overall playing nhl in his draft +1. I know Monahan did it, but that's the exception not the rule

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Simple odds I guess. Only 1 or two guys per year make it. I know almost nothing about his playing style other than what I saw in the memorial cup. Not a comment on his game as much as a general comment about the odds of a 6th overall playing nhl in his draft +1. I know Monahan did it, but that's the exception not the rule

Fair enough, that's what I figured, but it's important to look at the actual odds of the player himself and the situation as opposed to historical odds. When a bunch of respected analysts and scouts say he's very likely NHL ready and he's going to a team with clear openings for him if he's ready then the odds are certainly higher than the standard historical odds.

He was also rated as high as 4th in a lot of mocks.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by greentree

IIRC Craig Conroy said a couple of months ago that Tkachuk was not NHL ready. He's got one year of OHL experience...let him season there a bit longer!

It's possible that Conroy said that because the Flames were targeting him and didn't want the Oilers to take him.

[robaur]

Tkachuk is more ready than Monahan was simply because of what he has accomplished in his draft year. Although, I can't remember...I'm pretty certain at this point before even working out for the summer, Tkachuk has better physical numbers than Monahan did when he was drafted.

Actually, Tkachuk is already the size that Monahan is currently at 195 pounds.

The question should be if everyone is saying Mitch Marner is NHL ready and has nothing left to prove at the Junior level, then why not Tkachuk? He pretty much has the exact same accomplishments and Marner doesn't even come close in terms of physical attributes.

Just some thoughts.

[GoJetsGo]

The kid is 6’1 and a half and 202lbs... He's a late birthday as far as draft eligible players go. He was called one of the most NHL ready players by several scouts.

I liked the story of him sitting in Treliving's office saying "If you draft me I am going to make your team".

Seems silly to suggest there's "no way" he makes it.

I like his chances. We can certainly use the grit.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Simple odds I guess. Only 1 or two guys per year make it. I know almost nothing about his playing style other than what I saw in the memorial cup. Not a comment on his game as much as a general comment about the odds of a 6th overall playing nhl in his draft +1. I know Monahan did it, but that's the exception not the rule

If this is what you are going by, then why make the definitive statement: "There's no way he makes it imo"?

Also, more than one or two make it every year. A good handful usually make the jump, actually, and it often has nothing to do with their draft ranking. Usually the first pick makes it, often the next couple, and then they just appear sporadically. Even guys selected in the second round sometimes just crack the lineup the first time around, like ROR did. So even your argument of only one or two is wrong, and then the other part of your argument stating at the 6th spot being too far down usually to make it, is also wrong.

The better initial post would be: "I have absolutely no clue since I haven't seen him play, and I have no idea how many prospects who are just drafted enter the league right away, or even if there is anything resembling a cut-off in the draft."

[Vulcan]

I'm counting on him to make the team but if he doesn't, that's how it goes. I'd guess his chances are about 75% to make it. From what I've read he and the two Finns and the TO kid are generally thought to be ready. Not to say Joulevi and Debois aren't good, they just may need more time.

I think when Monahan was drafted he was 189 and put on ten lbs over the summer. Since then from what I've read I think he's about 210 to start a season. Don't pay attention to the Flames website, it's hardly ever accurate. What I'm getting at is Tkachuk is probably big enough at 195 to play but with his style maybe coming in at 205 would be a good idea.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by StanTheMan

I agree. I think the Flames forward lines for next year should look roughly as follows:

Gaudreau-Monahan-???
Colborne-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk-Bennett-Shinkaruk
Bouma-Stajan/Grant-Ferland

Backlunds line gets the hardest minutes, Monahan/Johnny get the second hardest and Bennett/Tkachuk/Shinkaruk get the most favourable matchups.

I also think now that we got Elliott at such a low cost we have cap space to pursue a RW to fill in on the top line. Or we could use an asset to bring in RW help, such as Hayes/Hartnell/Nichushkin/whoever.

This.
Backlund line should take the shutdown role and Colborne has proven himself capable to play there.
The kids can do their thing in a sheltered role and grow together.

Just need to snap up one of those RWs on free agency day. Lucic would be a dream. The team would instantly be pesky and hard to play against.

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by robaur

Tkachuk is more ready than Monahan was simply because of what he has accomplished in his draft year. Although, I can't remember...I'm pretty certain at this point before even working out for the summer, Tkachuk has better physical numbers than Monahan did when he was drafted.

Actually, Tkachuk is already the size that Monahan is currently at 195 pounds.

The question should be if everyone is saying Mitch Marner is NHL ready and has nothing left to prove at the Junior level, then why not Tkachuk? He pretty much has the exact same accomplishments and Marner doesn't even come close in terms of physical attributes.

Just some thoughts.

When you say Tkachuk has the exact same accomplishments, what do you mean?

From where I sit, Marner has 3 full seasons of OHL experience. He has 3 seasons of OHL play off experience. He has 2 trips to the Memorial Cup. In terms of individual awards, he won the OHL's most outstanding player, OHL play off MVP and Memorial Cup MVP trophies. He has 1 season wearing as an alternate captain, another as a joint captain. He has achieved way more than Tkachuk. What more can Marner achieve in the OHL? Nothing, he won it all, both team and individual.

Now, I don't hold that against Tkachuk because he's only played 1 season in the OHL. But I don't agree that he couldn't benefit from playing another season of Junior. I think a season of junior where he truly steps out of the shadow of Marner/Dvorak, with a letter of his jersey would help. I think proving he can put up another 100+ point season would help. I don't for one second think his production last season was down to his line mates, but I'd still like to see him prove it. If he makes the Flames, fantastic. If he doesn't, I won't be even slightly disappointed. I'll just be super stoked to go and see him tear up the OHL next season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by JJ1532

... I don't agree that he couldn't benefit from playing another season of Junior. I think a season of junior where he truly steps out of the shadow of Marner/Dvorak, with a letter of his jersey would help. I think proving he can put up another 100+ point season would help. I don't for one second think his production last season was down to his line mates, but I'd still like to see him prove it. If he makes the Flames, fantastic. If he doesn't, I won't be even slightly disappointed. I'll just be super stoked to go and see him tear up the OHL next season.

I would rather see him prove it with the Flames.

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would rather see him prove it with the Flames.

So would I. I'm just saying if he did go back down to Junior, I don't think it would be a bad idea at all. I don't buy the Marner "He's done everything" argument with Tkachuk just yet.

[Reggie Dunlop]

After thinking a bit, I'll qualify my "YES" by saying that even if he's lights-out in camp, another OHL season won't harm him either.

[Vulcan]

One big thing with Tkuchuk is that he fills a need. We need a top six winger and we need one with some nastiness.

[CliffFletcher]

The style of game Tkachuk plays has banged him up and taken him out of the lineup against other juniors. He might be mentally ready to play in the NHL next season, but I doubt he'll be physically equipped to grind it out in the corners and in front of the net against NHL defencemen. Give him a year to get stronger. Let's not Oiler this guy.

[GoJetsGo]

I like that he's already 205 lbs (at 6'1 and a half).

Big kid, could end up a solid 210-215.

[BIG M]

Tkachuk’s hockey IQ, passing skills, shot, mental and physical toughness will allow him to makes the Flames in 2016. He will be a great leader at a young age.

[cannon7]

If Tkachuk has a solid camp I think he gets nine games. But he'll need to play at a similar level to what Monahan did (with similarly protected minutes) in order to stay beyond that -- otherwise back to London. As long as Tkachuk takes his conditioning this summer seriously and doesn't show any ill effects from his ankle injury he should be in good shape.

There's gonna be a few guys pushing for a role on the big club this camp, Jankowski and Andersson are favorites in my mind. So Tkachuk may need to make a splash.

[herashak]

9 games

[Husky]

Lucic would be a good vet for style of play to help Thatchuk along.