Couple more points I thought of Textcritic. A top 5 pick has a high likelihood of landings us an NHL ready powerwinger with size. A player we pick at 7 or 8 may need a couple years or may be a d-man. The Flames have current needs at wing. So while we don't want to rely on an 18 year old, drafting an NHL ready winger with size has the potential to help our depth immediately. And that player would likely be contributing at 2nd line level by his 19 year old season. Therefore drafting top 5 this year may help us achieve the playoffs a year sooner than picking a guy who is 2-3 years away. Which may help us contend a year sooner. So it may affect our immediate future in a big way.
Treliving sped up the rebuild last draft by turning a 1st and two 2nds into a 22 year old dman with massive upside. And I think the rebuild would be sped up again if we can land an NHL ready winger in the top 5. Wing is the easiest position for young players to break into and the position where you can most expect young players to excel early. I think our chances of finding an NHL ready player are much decreased in the 6-8 range although we may still get lucky.
Also I wanted to clarify on my post where I said the chances of trading up are higher if we have the 4 or 5 pick versus the 6-8th pick. I think the chances of trading up into the top 3 are higher. From 6-8 it may still be possible to trade up into the 4th/5th but I think moving into the top 3 would be cost prohibitive from that far back. So the value of trading up becomes less the further we are back.
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 04-07-2016 at 05:08 PM.
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Now compare 3rd last to 5th last.
-3rd has a 86.2% chance of drafting top 5
-5th has a 64.7% chance of NOT drafting top 5
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
Now compare 4th last to 6th last
-4th has a 92.6% chance of drafting top 6
-6th has a 58.9% chance of NOT drafting top 6
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
The Flames can finish anywhere between 3rd last and 6th last. Some people are downplaying how much your odds change of drafting top 5-6 if we lose the next two games vs not. It's a big difference
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Couple more points I thought of Textcritic. A top 5 pick has a high likelihood of landings us an NHL ready powerwinger with size. A player we pick at 7 or 8 may need a couple years or may be a d-man. The Flames have current needs at wing. So while we don't want to rely on an 18 year old, drafting an NHL ready winger with size has the potential to help our depth immediately. And that player would likely be contributing at 2nd line level by his 19 year old season. Therefore drafting top 5 this year may help us achieve the playoffs a year sooner than picking a guy who is 2-3 years away. Which may help us contend a year sooner. So it may affect our immediate future in a big way.
I agree with all of that. But my question to you and others is this: How important is it for the Flames to draft top 3 this year? Top 5?
From what I can see, not all that important, since there is still a lot of time left in their window to compete, and they already have a high number of core pieces in place.
Does a top-3 draft pick help accelerate the Flames' rebuild? Absolutely.
Does a 6–9 draft pick derail the current rebuild, or set it into serious jeopardy? No chance, which is why I don't believe it is worthwhile bemoaning the very likely possibility that this is precisely what will happen.
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Dealing with Everything from Dead Sea Scrolls to Red C Trolls
Quote:
Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
Now compare 3rd last to 5th last.
-3rd has a 86.2% chance of drafting top 5
-5th has a 64.7% chance of NOT drafting top 5
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
Now compare 4th last to 6th last
-4th has a 92.6% chance of drafting top 6
-6th has a 58.9% chance of NOT drafting top 6
Huge difference in expected outcomes for just 2 spots
The Flames can finish anywhere between 3rd last and 6th last. Some people are downplaying how much your odds change of drafting top 5-6 if we lose the next two games vs not. It's a big difference
I agree that the difference is certainly significant, and by the way excellent posts in this thread. I just wanted to point out that the lottery tempers the inequality that was posted somewhat. I actually wasn't sure to what degree, but you nicely covered that.
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This on and on and on need to claim moral superiority for this is killing me.
If you don't like back and forth, online discussion boards are *not* the place to spend your time. I've been coming here for over a decade and still am only a farm team player for all I comment.
It's not a question of moral superiority -- but it *is* a philosophical question of "why do you watch sport?"
For some people it's the accumulation of position or status (shiny new draft picks, moral victories, regular season wins); and others it's an expression of the human will to compete, and in doing so uncover something noble and redeeming about the human spirit: the chance to better yourself and others, and eventually be recognized by your peers as having summitted and attained one of the most elusive and difficult physical and mental challenges on earth (a championship). If it's the former, you probably want to be a fan of sport the way you would play a video game: grind for the most points regardless of the method. If it's the latter, you probably want sport to reflect the struggle of life's reality: the unending and systematic will to play every game with meaning and purpose and determination to overcome.
Of course, you can still console yourself over losses. It is after all still a game, and real life doesn't hand out better draft picks.
If you don't like back and forth, online discussion boards are *not* the place to spend your time. I've been coming here for over a decade and still am only a farm team player for all I comment.
Yeah Bingo, if you don't like the conversations then why don't you start your own damn Calgary Flames discussion boards!
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One thing that might come into play in a big way this year are the 3 2nd round picks the Flames have. And one of those possibly could end up being a 1st. So even if the Flames end up out of the top 3 or top 6 Treliving does have some resources to move up.
Canuck fans on HF want Shinkaruk to light them up tonight.
For me when we traded Sven I wanted the pouty brat to suck badly (I know some fans on here wanted him to do well). I guess in this case Shinkaruk did not force the Canucks hand like Sven saying he wouldn't sign. The Ther big difference is we like our GM when they hate theirs
And the reason I never comment. The discourse becomes inbred and toxic.
Think about how much time you personally spend bloviating on the internet. Your words have only 3 uses: whitespace for actual content, to hear yourself think, or to instigate hot air from the like minded. Don't you have better ways to dissipate your existence? At least a way that doesn't turn you a cynical ####### quick to insult strangers for a point your failed to comprehend.
And the reason I never comment. The discourse becomes inbred and toxic.
Think about how much time you personally spend bloviating on the internet. Your words have only 3 uses: whitespace for actual content, to hear yourself think, or to instigate hot air from the like minded. Don't you have better ways to dissipate your existence? At least a way that doesn't turn you a cynical ####### quick to insult strangers for a point your failed to comprehend.
He wasn't insulting you actually.
He was referencing a poster who famously called Bingo, the owner of this website, a troll. It was funny then, and its still funny now.
I'd like to see Shinkaruk continue to do well.
