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Originally Posted by blankall
I don't think the immediate threat is to Israel at all. The bigger issue is if Iran gets one, Saudi Arabia gets one, then Turkey gets one, then Egypt gets one, and so on.. the whole area is one giant power struggle. I'd also worry about instability in Iran, and the weapon getting into the wrong hands after some kind of violent revolution.
The whole deal at this point is really for show anyways. Iran is only a few months at most from a weapon, and if they really wanted one they could have one before the inspectors knew what was up.
The bigger issue for the USA and Saudi Arabia is opening up Iran's economy again. This could give groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah, Assad, etc..a major surge. With Assad looking to be losing the war, maybe the USA is counting on that?
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The media spin sure makes it sound like as soon as Iran assembles a crude nuclear device it will be on the next boat bound for Haifa. I think they went down this path as a deterrent as they felt threatened with invasion/airstrikes after watching everything happen to their next door neighbour and being included in the axis of evil. Being in possession of a credible nuclear deterrent is a very good way to make potential adversaries think twice, and it's a governments duty to its people to do everything in its power to prevent them from becoming the next Iraq.
If you're worried about nuclear security, worry about Pakistan. I know that if I were an ISIS higher up with nuclear ambitions and a pocket full of money that's where I'd be looking, that's where the market it. Find some sympathetic ISI guy with good connections and a desire to be filthy rich. Even Saudi Arabia flaunts how easy it would be to just buy some from Pakistan.
The last part about wanting to open up Irans economy to help Assad, interesting. It's entirely possible given how complex this whole mess is right now.
