Magic Numbers Thread

[Caged Great]

Updated.



Dallas is starting to come on strong, but they'll practically need to win out to have a shot. Calgary moves into 2nd in the Pacific and ahead of both Minnesota and Vancouver with the win. Only 4 teams are now ahead of the Flames. Whaaaat.

[Caged Great]

The difficulty of the schedule remaining breaks down as such

Vs Playoff teams

Minnesota - 12 Games
Winnipeg - 11
St. Louis - 10
Dallas - 10
Nashville - 9
LA - 9
Colorado - 8
Chicago - 7
Anaheim - 5
San Jose - 5
Vancouver - 5
Calgary - 5

Vs Non Playoff Teams

Vancouver - 10 Games
Calgary - 9
San Jose - 9
Chicago - 8
Anaheim - 7
LA - 6
Colorado - 6
St. Louis - 5
Nashville - 4
Dallas - 3
Winnipeg - 3
Minnesota - 2

[Caged Great]

If Calgary finishes .500 the rest of the way, they will have 95 points. They have the tie breaker on most teams, so the record other teams will need to beat that is 96 points. They will need to post the following to hit 96.

Anaheim - 1-10-1
St. Louis - 2-12-1
Nashville - 2-10-1
Chicago - 5-10-0
Calgary - 7-6-1
Minnesota - 7-6-1
Vancouver - 8-7-0
Los Angeles - 8-6-1
Winnipeg - 9-5-0
San Jose - 10-4-0
Dallas - 11-2-0
Colorado - 11-2-1

[Street Pharmacist]

Almost no way to actually clinch before the last week or two, should be exciting to say the least. Those last 2 games should be HUGE

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Updated.



Dallas is starting to come on strong, but they'll practically need to win out to have a shot. Calgary moves into 2nd in the Pacific and ahead of both Minnesota and Vancouver with the win. Only 4 teams are now ahead of the Flames. Whaaaat.

I get 12.5 for Winnipeg and 11.5 for San Jose (and it's actually -12 and 11 because a tie will not get them in as we own the tie breaker)

Eg. Winnipeg has 78 points with 14 games left for a maximum of 106 points.
106 points - Calgary's 81 = 25 points
25 points / 2 (2 points per game given) = 12.5
Add in the fact that they own the tie breaker and it's 12

San Jose has 2 less points in as many games so it's 1 magic number lower

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If Calgary finishes .500 the rest of the way, they will have 95 points. They have the tie breaker on most teams, so the record other teams will need to beat that is 96 points. They will need to post the following to hit 96.

Anaheim - 1-10-1
St. Louis - 2-12-1
Nashville - 2-10-1
Chicago - 5-10-0
Calgary - 7-6-1
Minnesota - 7-6-1
Vancouver - 8-7-0
Los Angeles - 8-6-1
Winnipeg - 9-5-0
San Jose - 10-4-0
Dallas - 11-2-0
Colorado - 11-2-1

That really illustrates how much work SJ, WIN, COL and DAL have to do to get in.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I get 12.5 for Winnipeg and 11.5 for San Jose (and it's actually -12 and 11 because a tie will not get them in as we own the tie breaker)

Eg. Winnipeg has 78 points with 14 games left for a maximum of 106 points.
106 points - Calgary's 81 = 25 points
25 points / 2 (2 points per game given) = 12.5
Add in the fact that they own the tie breaker and it's 12

San Jose has 2 less points in as many games so it's 1 magic number lower

You've already accounted for a tie when you got to 12.5, so you can't take another 0.5 off to go to 12.

If the Flames win 12 games and get 24 points, that would give them 105 points. That wouldn't be enough to beat Winnipeg's 106. 12.5 is the magic number for a tie with Winnipeg, 13 will give the Flames an outright lead.

On a chart like this, accounting for all the different tiebreakers would be very difficult, especially when teams are tight with ROW and a couple of shootout wins can shift who holds that tiebreaker. It makes sense to do the chart accounting for outright elimination and not worry about tiebreakers.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by getbak

You've already accounted for a tie when you got to 12.5, so you can't take another 0.5 off to go to 12.

If the Flames win 12 games and get 24 points, that would give them 105 points. That wouldn't be enough to beat Winnipeg's 106. 12.5 is the magic number for a tie with Winnipeg, 13 will give the Flames an outright lead.

On a chart like this, accounting for all the different tiebreakers would be very difficult, especially when teams are tight with ROW and a couple of shootout wins can shift who holds that tiebreaker. It makes sense to do the chart accounting for outright elimination and not worry about tiebreakers.

The chart says 13, not 12.5 which is the correct number.

Also, I wasn't suggesting that the chart include tie breakers, but was just illustrating that it's actually lower than the number that should be listed by 0.5 because of the tie breaker

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The chart says 13, not 12.5 which is the correct number.

Also, I wasn't suggesting that the chart include tie breakers, but was just illustrating that it's actually lower than the number that should be listed by 0.5 because of the tie breaker

But it's not though. 13 is the Flames' magic number to guarantee they finish ahead of the Jets. 12.5 is the number to guarantee a tie.

The Jets' maximum is 106. 25 points (magic number = 12.5) will give the Flames 106 points for a tie with the Jets. 26 points (magic number = 13) will give the Flames 107 points, which is a guaranteed lead with no tiebreaker required.

The chart is tracking the guaranteed leads, so 13 is the correct Magic Number for the Flames over the Jets.

[Street Pharmacist]

Ah. I misunderstood

[You Need a Thneed]

When talking about magic numbers, you can't assume current tiebreaker status will stay the same.

[Mattman]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Updated.



Dallas is starting to come on strong, but they'll practically need to win out to have a shot. Calgary moves into 2nd in the Pacific and ahead of both Minnesota and Vancouver with the win. Only 4 teams are now ahead of the Flames. Whaaaat.

I thought the N O G O O D for Arizona and Edmonton was another "Advanced Stat"

[Caged Great]

I could modify them all on the chart to account for the tiebreakers, but that would be a major pain though as they do change. I have it just set at them finishing a single point further ahead.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I could modify them all on the chart to account for the tiebreakers, but that would be a major pain though as they do change. I have it just set at them finishing a single point further ahead.

That makes more sense. I was looking at it backwards, as in, what it would take for Winnipeg to pass our highest point total, rather than what Calgary needs to pass their highest point totals.

Calgary has every tie breaker so your way makes more sense

[#-3]

Tie breakers are far from being clinched.

if Winnipeg goes 14-0-0 in regulation/overtime they have
78 pts + 28 pts = 106 pts.
27 ROW + 14 ROW = 41 ROW

The Flames could possibly go 6 regulation/overtime wins, 6 shootout wins, 1 over time loss, and 1 regulation loss.
12 pts + 12 pts + 1 pt + 81 pts = 106 pts
34 ROW + 6 ROW = 40 ROW

So Calgary wins + Winnipeg Losses would = 12.5 and Winnpeg would hold the tie breaker.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by #-3

Tie breakers are far from being clinched.

if Winnipeg goes 14-0-0 in regulation/overtime they have
78 pts + 28 pts = 160 pts.
27 ROW + 14 ROW = 41 ROW

The Flames could possibly go 6 regulation/overtime wins, 6 shootout wins, 1 over time loss, and 1 regulation loss.
12 pts + 12 pts + 1 pt + 81 pts = 106 pts
34 ROW + 6 ROW = 40 ROW

So Calgary wins + Winnipeg Losses would = 12.5 and Winnpeg would hold the tie breaker.

That is extremely unlikely. Far from clinched is quite a stretch

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by #-3

if Winnipeg goes 14-0-0 in regulation/overtime they have
78 pts + 28 pts = 160 pts.

I think the Jets going 14-0 is approximately equally likely as them finishing the season with 160 pts.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

That is extremely unlikely. Far from clinched is quite a stretch

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I think the Jets going 14-0 is approximately equally likely as them finishing the season with 160 pts.

[JurassicTunga12]

What a crappy night

Flames lose, Canucks win, Jets win, Wild win. Kings and Sharks lose at least. but no doubt the Kings are going to make the playoffs imo.

[Caged Great]