2014-2015 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[wingedwheel]

Russel Martin signed to big money,
Gose traded to Detroit for Devon Travis (2B prospect, .323/.388/.487 in 993 minor league ABs).
Jays reportedly interested in Andrew Miller and Jon Lester.
Think they need some pitching help. THey have 6 starters right now, but I they could move Happ and maybe one more to help out the OF. I don't see them landing Lester. Miller has a lot of interest, but Toronto can offer him the closer role which could draw him here if the terms are right.
Jays supposedly looking into some OFs, Nik Markakis included. I'd be happy with that. He's a guy who plays good D and can hit for average in the AL East

[evman150]

Navarro probably lost 100s of strikes last year for Blue Jay pitchers. Every game I watched he seemed to lose at least a few pretty obvious strikes. Martin will help with that.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I didn't realize Navarro was considered below average defensively. I hadn't seen any statistics, so I was going purely on the eye test. I think I just saw such a huge upgrade over JPA that I just assumed Navarro was quite good.

I'll put it this way...

Martin is to Navarro is to Arencibia as Prime Rib is to Hamburger is to Horse Manure.

The Catcher market is weak so AA should be getting calls on Navarro (below average defense or not Dionar still has a good bat for the C position). I really hope that the Jays prioritize getting a real second baseman first. I know AA's proclivities seem to lead him to trade catchers for RP's but please resist and get someone that insures we don't have Iztarius/Goins/Tolleson/Kawasaki (I love Kawasaki but I'd love a championship calibre team more).

... and no not Devon Travis. I don't want to put my trust in someone with no experience above AA ball. I'm nervious enough about Pompey in CF thank you very much.

[sketchyt]

Pretty cool comparisons of strike zones between the 2 catchers. Crazy the amount of stats they collect in baseball:

[MyFlamesFirst]

Another thing with Russel Martin, is there is no way he could possibly be slower than Navarro. It was so frustrating to watch Navarro hit a really nice line drive but still be thrown out at first base. Martin is obviously an upgrade, but I would have to agree that their is more urgent issues that should be taken care of first, especially with the limited budget the Blue Jays seem to have. I thought Navarro did just fine for us last year, especially in clutch hitting situations.

[bluejays]

There are literally a handful of elite catchers in the league. Martin is second tier to them. When all is said and done, he's an upgrade, yes, but at what cost? I don't see the upside in Martin based on his past performance, but rather I do see a bit of downside at this point in his career. He is an upgrade, don't get me wrong, but I really wish that money was spent elsewhere. Now if they got Victor Martinez, I'd have been through the moon.

Anyway, relating to this even though there may be a market for catchers, do you really think AA will get an above average 2nd basemen or a 3 starter for Navarro? I highly doubt it. So what does this mean? IMO, Navarro either stays as a backup or gets dealt for a bullpen pitcher.

So that then leaves a LF, CF, 2nd and a 1-3 rotation SP they have to get. For both the outfield positions, I hope they really don't weigh too heavily defence. That doesn't mean you get a fatty out there, it just means that a guy like Cabrera was serviceable as his bat more than made up for some defensive liability. The bat is key or you're getting a bench player and BSing the public into thinking they're starters. I'd take Cabrera over Markakis any day of the week. At 2nd, AA has to work his magic to get someone. Or get a SS and move Reyes to 2nd. Now for SP, IMO they gotta break the bank for Lester. Pitching is what wins championships more often then not, and they just have to take the chance on a 4 year deal with him at $20M per if you have to. The window is only so large for this team before they have to re-tool.

[Caged Great]

Martin's defense itself is worth about 3 WAR, which is about the right value for his contract and that shouldn't really decline at all. His contributions offensively are just a bonus. This is replacing an average player with an All Star. That's big. Now if they can manage to find a good LF, and a starter they'll be set.

Realistically as they have lost their 17th overall selection, they should go in whole hog on the off season and sign Lester and anyone else they deem necessary. Why not.

[transplant99]

Good freaking lord.

The Marlins are no longer pinching pennies, and Giancarlo Stanton won't be, either.
Stanton agreed to terms with the team Monday on a $325 million, 13-year contract, Miami owner Jeffrey Loria said. It's the most lucrative deal for an American athlete and averages $25 million per season, or $154,321 per game

.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Good freaking lord.

.

As scary as it sounds, that is actually not terrible. He and Trout are the two best players in the league. No different than when A-rod was first signed to his contract 12 years ago.

[GirlySports]

He should have waited a couple of years. Yankees would have given him half a bill.

[OzSome]

Second Canadian they signed in less than a month. Didn't they signed P Jeff Francis recently? How many Canucks Jays have now? I hope Russell Martin's game goes back the way he played during his Dodger's days.

[Jason14h]

If you're into advanced stats

http://andrewstoeten.com/2014/11/17/...it-thats-fine/

Martin projects to be worth 3.8 wins, according to Steamer, in 2015. Navarro’s projection is for just 1.6 wins. Add in the three wins added by framing that we saw in 2014 — this seems reasonable, considering that Stat Corner had the difference between them at two wins in 2013, with Navarro only playing little more than half a season – and the Jays just added five wins to their lineup (i.e. around the 2014 value of Jason Heyward, Yasiel Puig, Jose Altuve, or Robinson Cano).

Melky is a tremendous hitter when healthy — of that there is no doubt. But he was worth just 2.6 WAR in 2014 because his deficiencies with the glove helped to piss away a bunch of the value he provided with the bat. For 2015 he’s projected to produce just 1.7 WAR

[bluejays]

I do like advanced stats, but I'm not putting much stock in Martin developing players and making people around them better. We've heard that type of thing before over and over again, but to me, at least with baseball it's bunk science. Be a good teammate to others and play hard for the fans, and the rest should take care of itself he if comes in with the right mindset. The same for the rest of the team. Guys like Lawrie may say all the right things at times, but I don't see him necessarily putting in the offseason effort in improving his game. He may be hitting the gym, but I want to see his bat improve. I'm going off on a tangent now, but yeah, I don't put much stock in Martin improving the pitching or the locker room. Send the shyt disturbers out, bring in quality talented guys.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by fleury

I do like advanced stats, but I'm not putting much stock in Martin developing players and making people around them better. We've heard that type of thing before over and over again, but to me, at least with baseball it's bunk science. Be a good teammate to others and play hard for the fans, and the rest should take care of itself he if comes in with the right mindset. The same for the rest of the team. Guys like Lawrie may say all the right things at times, but I don't see him necessarily putting in the offseason effort in improving his game. He may be hitting the gym, but I want to see his bat improve. I'm going off on a tangent now, but yeah, I don't put much stock in Martin improving the pitching or the locker room. Send the shyt disturbers out, bring in quality talented guys.

the difference is as a catcher he has a history of helping young pitchers

it's not like a shortstop who 'does things the right way'

it's calling a game, advanced scouting lineups etc.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by fleury

There are literally a handful of elite catchers in the league. Martin is second tier to them. When all is said and done, he's an upgrade, yes, but at what cost? I don't see the upside in Martin based on his past performance, but rather I do see a bit of downside at this point in his career. He is an upgrade, don't get me wrong, but I really wish that money was spent elsewhere. Now if they got Victor Martinez, I'd have been through the moon.

Anyway, relating to this even though there may be a market for catchers, do you really think AA will get an above average 2nd basemen or a 3 starter for Navarro? I highly doubt it. So what does this mean? IMO, Navarro either stays as a backup or gets dealt for a bullpen pitcher.

So that then leaves a LF, CF, 2nd and a 1-3 rotation SP they have to get. For both the outfield positions, I hope they really don't weigh too heavily defence. That doesn't mean you get a fatty out there, it just means that a guy like Cabrera was serviceable as his bat more than made up for some defensive liability. The bat is key or you're getting a bench player and BSing the public into thinking they're starters. I'd take Cabrera over Markakis any day of the week. At 2nd, AA has to work his magic to get someone. Or get a SS and move Reyes to 2nd. Now for SP, IMO they gotta break the bank for Lester. Pitching is what wins championships more often then not, and they just have to take the chance on a 4 year deal with him at $20M per if you have to. The window is only so large for this team before they have to re-tool.

TBH I would much rather the money spent on Martin than Martinez, simply based off positions each play. Martinez has had some pretty productive seasons, but is a DH. It would have filled the hole AA wanted to leave open when we traded off Lind (yes I know Martinez is a better DH than Lind). With the turf, and the way things stand, we will have Bautista/Encarnacion/Smoak/Navarro/Martin/Reyes all vying for DH at bats. Don't get me wrong, Martinez's bat in the middle of the lineup would look nice, but the Jays will be fine without it too. You look at clubs who were contending in October, and they have one thing in common, their starting catcher is very, very good. Posey, Molina, Sal Perez. I'm not putting Martin in this category, but he is pretty solid behind the plate.

I look forward to the difference Martin will make for our pitching staff. I think it was something close to a 3 win swing between Martin/Navarro just based off pitch framing ability. That is huge. I think someone said it was over 200 more strikes Martin would have received when compared to Navarro too. These are staggering numbers. Martin, by all accounts, is the type of workhorse you need when you have Sanchez/Stroman/Norris/Osuna all projected to be big leaguers by the time Martin's contract is up. As someone else has said, the offensive output is gravy.

Navarro won't bring you back an above average 2B alone, but paired with a young, controllable arm like Nolin/Osuna gets your a pretty nice pick. Someone on twitter mentioned the Cubs as a trade partner - I sure wouldn't hesitate to launch Navarro and a combination of Sanchez/Stroman/Norris for a Russell/Baez/Bryant/Castro. Jeez the Cubs have some serious INF depth, and young with serious upside.

The thing that I get angry about is saying "well AA has other holes to fill, why do upgrade a position we are already set in?". Well, fact is, no one other than AA has any clue as to how things are going to shake down. Maybe he's talked to all the remaining FA, and no one seems interested in taking his money. You listen to all the rumoured trade targets of the Jays, and anyone with enough service time, have the Jays on their No Trade Lists. So open the market to 29 teams, the Jays simply don't have much sex appeal when dollars are similar. So do you completely overspend to get a piece you like? I don't know, it isn't smart business, but sometimes it is what it is. Do you increase the term? We all know the Jays' internal policy on the max 5 year contract, so that doesn't work.

If anything has been consistent, it is the Jays have done most of their acquisitions via the trade route, and for good reason I think. It's their only option for the most part. I think I read that AA has yet to sing an American born player to more than a one year deal. It isn't a coincidence. Not many want to come to Canada.

[waner]

Again you focus on Canada. It wasn't an issue in 92/93 when the Jays were winning and handing out big money. It is lack of term/winning that is hurting the Jays signing of FAs.

How many big time UFAs have signed with an bad team for less than 5 years? FAs are looking for money and winning and AA is offering neither.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by waner

Again you focus on Canada. It wasn't an issue in 92/93 when the Jays were winning and handing out big money. It is lack of term/winning that is hurting the Jays signing of FAs.

How many big time UFAs have signed with an bad team for less than 5 years? FAs are looking for money and winning and AA is offering neither.

And again you continue to link 92/93 to 2014. I understand that if the Jays were World Series favourites year in and year out, it'd make things more attractive. But those days are gone. The parody in the MLB is probably greater than ever. Small market clubs can now compete, and are attractive to free agents. This isn't 92/93, though it wasn't exactly what you were getting at.

I found this quote on the internet today - "Peter Gammons, who quite interestingly looks at the historic difficulty the Jays have had in enticing free agents. “It’s hard to get players to come here by choice,” said the Jays’ GM, “and Toronto is one of the greatest cities in the world.” That GM? Pat Gillick." So was Gillick wrong too?

[waner]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

And again you continue to link 92/93 to 2014. I understand that if the Jays were World Series favourites year in and year out, it'd make things more attractive. But those days are gone. The parody in the MLB is probably greater than ever. Small market clubs can now compete, and are attractive to free agents. This isn't 92/93, though it wasn't exactly what you were getting at.

I found this quote on the internet today - "Peter Gammons, who quite interestingly looks at the historic difficulty the Jays have had in enticing free agents. “It’s hard to get players to come here by choice,” said the Jays’ GM, “and Toronto is one of the greatest cities in the world.” That GM? Pat Gillick." So was Gillick wrong too?

Yes he was.

I don't think that the Jays are as attractive as say NY, Boston, LA and maybe Chicago but most teams aren't but they aren't in the bottom half of the league either.

Toronto may play a small role in not getting guys but it is definitely behind winning and money. Those are by far much bigger factors in attracting FA's, especially top guys looking for 5+ year deals, than Toronto being in Canada.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by waner

Yes he was.

I don't think that the Jays are as attractive as say NY, Boston, LA and maybe Chicago but most teams aren't but they aren't in the bottom half of the league either.

Toronto may play a small role in not getting guys but it is definitely behind winning and money. Those are by far much bigger factors in attracting FA's, especially top guys looking for 5+ year deals, than Toronto being in Canada.

Don't estimate how poor an idea it is to compare 1992 to 2015. Nobody likes playing on concrete, and now you don't have to in all but two stadiums. It's true that Toronto is likely more attractive a town than Tampa, so i guess if you hate playing on concrete (which most players do, especially older ones, who tend to be UFAs) then Toronto is the second worst place to play half your games.

[waner]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

Don't estimate how poor an idea it is to compare 1992 to 2015. Nobody likes playing on concrete, and now you don't have to in all but two stadiums. It's true that Toronto is likely more attractive a town than Tampa, so i guess if you hate playing on concrete (which most players do, especially older ones, who tend to be UFAs) then Toronto is the second worst place to play half your games.

Ok if we start getting into stadium issues then yes Toronto might start to drop down. I was talking about Toronto as a city.

It seems Jays and Raptors fans like to use being in Canada as an excuse when the main problems for both teams are losing cultures, and for the Jays lack of spending, that are the causes for FA's not wanting to come.

92 is used because it shows when the teams are good they can get anyone to come to Canada. Same for the Raptors when Vince was at his peak.

A crap stadium, five year limits, a poor record are things that can be changed and if that is not attracting players that is on AA and the Jays, not on being in Toronto.