Talked Flames with Pierre McGuire.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

You should watch the video I posted again then. The first quote you can chalk it up to what you're suggesting but certainly not the "Amazing pick" quote at 1:40. At that point he is talking strictly about the player.

No, he is not.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by valo403

You've conveniently ignored that of all of those guys only Ryan Duncan was a Sophomore, every other player was a Senior with the exception of Carle, who was a Junior. It is an award dominated by Seniors, the fact Gaudreau was a finalist as a Sophomore is huge. Trading him for a late 1st would be simply stupid.

I am not going to look through all the finalists in detail. You are missing my main point by a long shot.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Not one bit am I saying that at all. You may need to re-read it or read what we have been discussing.

edit: to add to that, I actually value the NCAA very highly in regards to developing players.

Well then your post is a real head scratcher and I have no idea what you're talking about.

You did say, "He is putting up points in COLLEGE" as if that was somehow not impressive. You then listed why it wasn't impressive. And of course you proceeded to compare him to players that dominated college as Seniors while Gaudreau has dominated College as a Freshman and Sophomore. Thus making your comparisons extremely questionable.

You might wanna state what you mean a little more clearly.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

I am not going to look through all the finalists in detail. You are missing my main point by a long shot.

Perhaps you should spell it out then, because nobody seems to be able to figure out what your point is.

Also it doesn't take a lot of detailed analysis to see the Sr. beside the name of the vast majority of Hobey winners.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by valo403

No, he is not.

Yes, he is.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well then your post is a real head scratcher.

My point was the best college players don't always pan out. Like I have said many times throughout this thread. I am not saying Johnny won't make it. That is not that point I am making at all.

The main point to my argument was agreeing with that Pierre McGuire said in that the Flames and Flames fans overvalue their prospects. To say you want a 1st + for Gaudreau just proves that point.

Yes, he is a good hockey player but in terms of his current value.. he is not worth a 1st.

[Tacoman]

Would Pierre really trade Jankowski AND Sieloff for TT? I sure wouldn't. The whole chain of events needs to be remembered here, not just the Jankowski pick versus taking TT.

Its way too early to tell for all three players but the percentages certainly favour the Flames right now with two good prospects versus one.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Yes, he is a good hockey player but in terms of his current value.. he is not worth a 1st.

How would you know?

He is listed as a top 50 prospect by the Hockey News. I'm not saying he is definitely worth a first or not but how could either of us know for sure?

It is clear his stock has risen massively since he was drafted out of the USHL. I don't think it is that far fetched to suggest he'd be worth a late first or 2nd round pick but obviously none of us can say it with authority.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

This is just further proof as to why Pierre isn't a GM.

At anyways, I will always compared TT with Jankowski. So far, I like that comparison, seeing as TT is still a ways away, and is looking more like a winger. Both of them are projects - but the Flames picked the guy who is 4"(or more) taller and translates into a more likely center.

Pierre... lol

isn't Jankow playing wing right now?

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

How would you know?

He is listed as a top 50 prospect by the Hockey News. I'm not saying he is definitely worth a first or not but how could either of us know for sure?

We don't. If someone offers you a 1st round pick for him, you take it and run in my opinion. Just by looking at the odds of grabbing a full time NHLer based on round they were selected, you make that move without thinking... especially in this years draft.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

My point was the best college players don't always pan out. Like I have said many times throughout this thread. I am not saying Johnny won't make it. That is not that point I am making at all.

The main point to my argument was agreeing with that Pierre McGuire said in that the Flames and Flames fans overvalue their prospects. To say you want a 1st + for Gaudreau just proves that point.

Yes, he is a good hockey player but in terms of his current value.. he is not worth a 1st.

And I'm confused as to why you think the 25th pick in the 2013 draft has a better chance of being an NHLer than Gaudreau.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

isn't Jankow playing wing right now?

He's a centre long term despite any games he's played on the wing this season. His coach said he sees him as a centre and with Tim Schaller graduating there are less centres ahead of him. I'm fairly sure he didn't play wing all year either but don't know where to look to back that up.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He's a centre long term despite any games he's played on the wing this season. His coach said he sees him as a centre and with Tim Schaller graduating there are less centres ahead of him. I'm fairly sure he didn't play wing all year either but don't know where to look to back that up.

thanks (out of thanks, due to the Oilers fun up north)

glad to see he'll be put back to C next year

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

And I'm confused as to why you think the 25th pick in the 2013 draft has a better chance of being an NHLer than Gaudreau.

This article is a little outdated. There is a newer one but I can't seem to find it.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/pro...ft_success.htm

Success rate of first-round draft picks

Of the 494 career players drafted in the 1990s, 160 were selected in the first round.
Of those 160 career players, over half have played more than 500 NHL games.
Among the older players (those drafted from 1990 to 1994), six first-round picks have made it to 1,000 games. Another couple of dozen are still active and within reach of 1,000.
Based on the 1990s sample, a first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of being a career player.

Beyond the first round.
This is where the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:

From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round turned into NHL career players. Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it.
From over 2,000 players selected in the third round and beyond during 1990s, just 261 made it as NHL career players. That's about 12 percent.

Its fact that the lower you go the less chance you have of being a full time NHLer. Again, I am not saying Johnny won't make it, you make the move to increase you're chance, that's all.

[CalgaryFan1988]

NNN, Thanks for sharing.

Always fun talking with hockey media.

I agree that the FLames should have taken Teraveinen. Nothing against Jankowski, but IMO the Flames are/were in the position for help sooner rather than later. Time will tell what the right choice was.

If I'm the Flames I'd also be deciding between Barkov and Mackinnon, although I think I'd rather Mackinnon. That being said, he deals in the business and He should know more than me.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Yes, he is.

I tend to disagree. When he says an "amazing pick" and "a legendary pick", he is referring to it being off the board, not Jankowski. at least that's how it sounds to me.

Amazing in the sense it amazes Petey Mcguire that we took him where we did, with the players remaining on the board.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

We don't. If someone offers you a 1st round pick for him, you take it and run in my opinion. Just by looking at the odds of grabbing a full time NHLer based on round they were selected, you make that move without thinking... especially in this years draft.

But Gaudreau already has 2 years of development and looks a lot like a late 1st round pick or early 2nd at his stage of development. I see him as being as good of a prospect as a guy like Rattie or Schwartz. Maybe I'm guilty of overrating him, I guess time will tell.

I'd consider dealing him if it allowed us to move up for another top 8 pick but I'm not convinced dealing him for a late 1st this year is as slam dunk of a trade as you suggest.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

This article is a little outdated. There is a newer one but I can't seem to find it.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/pro...ft_success.htm

Its fact that the lower you go the less chance you have of being a full time NHLer. Again, I am not saying Johnny won't make it, you make the move to increase you're chance, that's all.

So by the same logic you'd have traded Brodie a year or two ago for a late 1st because the late 1st was more likely to be a full time NHLer and you were fixated on Brodie/Gaudreau's 4th round draft position?

I'm not really sure I get what you're saying. Gaudreau has proven to be one of those exceptional 4th rounders. If we re-drafted his draft year now after seeing everyone's development I think he'd be going in the late 1st round or early 2nd at worst.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

This article is a little outdated. There is a newer one but I can't seem to find it.

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/pro...ft_success.htm





Its fact that the lower you go the less chance you have of being a full time NHLer. Again, I am not saying Johnny won't make it, you make the move to increase you're chance, that's all.

I don't care where players were drafted. It no longer matters whether we used a 1st or a 4th round pick on Gaudreau.

Fact is, he wouldn't have made it to where he did if GMs knew what they know now about him. I'd be surprised if he didn't crack the top 15-20 of a 2011 redraft at this point.

Gaudreau has been proving critics wrong his entire career. He might be 155 pounds, but he has perhaps the best puck skills, the best agility, of any current NHL prospect.

I take that potential over any Greg Nemisz or Brendan Gaunce you can find late in the first round.

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

So by the same logic you'd have traded Brodie a year or two ago for a late 1st because the late 1st was more likely to be a full time NHLer and you were fixated on Brodie/Gaudreau's 4th round draft position?

I'm not really sure I get what you're saying. Gaudreau has proven to be one of those exceptional 4th rounders. If we re-drafted his draft year now after seeing everyone's development I think he'd be going in the late 1st round or early 2nd at worst.

I am not comparing Brodie whatsoever to Gaudreau. No clue where you got that from.

Brodie had an outstanding year in his 1st year pro, so no I wouldn't.

We can play the 'what if' game all we want, but that won't get us anywhere. I am talking about value at this current moment. I don't think we should trade Gaudreau at all and I agree with a lot of your points. I don't know how many times I need to repeat it, if you have a chance to gain a player with a higher ceiling or higher potential, you do it 10 times out of 10.