Chemical Weapon used in Syria, Western military response likely

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Hesla

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/co...near_damascus/

Interesting and horrifying stuff here.. Whether Assad or the rebels did it.

Well, if there is one thing that I definitely don't need to watch ... ever, it's videos of kids after a chemical weapons attack.

Pass.

[Knut]

Agreed... i couldnt watch it either.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

Yeah, I'm very anti Assad, but I don't think he's that stupid to use chemical weapons at this point. They're already beating the rebels easily. This looks to be a desperate attempt to get America involved.

Do you think "their own side" are using the weapons on them?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Do you think "their own side" are using the weapons on them?

There's been no actual proof of chemical weapon use at this point. The videos in question, show some people coughing into rags. There are potentially bodies in the background...or just people pretending to be dead.

You don't even see inflamed eyes, like you see after a tear gas attack. This warrants a UN investigation, but until they come back with something definitive, we don't have anything concrete yet.

[Daradon]

Man, the videos on CBC are horrific.

And I'd disagree that there isn't a lot on the videos. Perhaps not complete proof, but I did see foaming mouths, laboured breathing, dilated eyes, and lots of dead.

Also, I'm not sure why a whole bunch of civilians would just up and leave in the middle of the night to fake an attack.

[Ducay]

Its not that they'd fake it, but it could have been a rebel faction (god knows how many are at play right now) that used it against another or general civilians in order to try and bait NATO into it. Look how quickly the UN called a special meeting over it.

The timing just doesn't make any sense for Assad to have done it. Sure there's been some gains made in that area, but other areas have been lost to Assad and they've faught harder to retake them and not even once considered using chemicals. He then uses them right near the capital when UN observers are there? Something is up either way.

Some random redditor summed it up well:

Originally Posted by reddit

1) Assad gasses rebels and civilians in a display of power that "not even when the UN is here you can stop us"
2) Syrian Rebels attacks civilians and blame assad in an attempt to switch the inspectors attention towards them and futher hoping for a international intervention

2nd commentor:
Considering how f##king nuts these rebels are, beheading children and whatnot, I would say option 2 makes a lot of sense.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Its not that they'd fake it, but it could have been a rebel faction (god knows how many are at play right now) that used it against another or general civilians in order to try and bait NATO into it. Look how quickly the UN called a special meeting over it.

The timing just doesn't make any sense for Assad to have done it. Sure there's been some gains made in that area, but other areas have been lost to Assad and they've faught harder to retake them and not even once considered using chemicals. He then uses them right near the capital when UN observers are there? Something is up either way.

I gotta agree with the Captain on this one. I'm not sure how the rebels would get their hands on chemical weapons for one, and two, it doesn't really lend itself to a guerrilla style fight.

I agree it doesn't make sense for Assad to use them, however, that's hardly proof that he didn't. Leaders, especially dictators have done stupid and cruel things throughout history, often at dumb times. Could be Assad is just feeling invincible since we've seen Russia block the west and the UN at every pass, and he just wants to stop the rebels in their tracks with fear.

Either way, it does look like something nasty was used by someone there. The west and/or the UN has got to get in there.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by blankall

There's been no actual proof of chemical weapon use at this point. The videos in question, show some people coughing into rags. There are potentially bodies in the background...or just people pretending to be dead.

You don't even see inflamed eyes, like you see after a tear gas attack. This warrants a UN investigation, but until they come back with something definitive, we don't have anything concrete yet.

I doubt they'd use tear gas. They'd use Sarin gas which is fairly common in Middle East arsenals.

Its cheap as dirt to use. Its fairly persistent. It kills with very little exposure and via skin contact. But the shelf life is relatively short (weeks), once its prepped and armed.

We know Syria has it, they had it in the arsenal's leading up to this rebellion. If Assaad was innocent he could have screamed that the rebels stole it.

Iran has it even though they deny it, and they support Assaad so he could easily be getting it from them. The Russian's had a pretty robust chemical weapons stockpile as did Iraq at one point in time.

This whole war by Asaad has been about punishment, nothing more or less. He not only wants to win, but he wants to make an example so the logic is there for him to use it.

I don't see the logic of the rebels using it to be honest. Why would they want Nato to go in and install a potentially unfriendly government. The radical groups in this rebellion certainly wouldn't want Nato in there at all.

Nato will absolutely not go in there nor will the UN do anything as long as there is the spectre of a Russian response.

I have more faith that Asaad used his arsenal then the Rebels getting it from elsewhere and using it without experience. You literally need specialized artillary and infantry trained in the handling of it and having the equipemnt to be able to work in a chemical attacked area.

I haven't seen the video's yet. But are there healthy people with exposed skin in the area?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I doubt they'd use tear gas. They'd use Sarin gas which is fairly common in Middle East arsenals.

Its cheap as dirt to use. Its fairly persistent. It kills with very little exposure and via skin contact. But the shelf life is relatively short (weeks), once its prepped and armed.

We know Syria has it, they had it in the arsenal's leading up to this rebellion. If Assaad was innocent he could have screamed that the rebels stole it.

Iran has it even though they deny it, and they support Assaad so he could easily be getting it from them. The Russian's had a pretty robust chemical weapons stockpile as did Iraq at one point in time.

This whole war by Asaad has been about punishment, nothing more or less. He not only wants to win, but he wants to make an example so the logic is there for him to use it.

I don't see the logic of the rebels using it to be honest. Why would they want Nato to go in and install a potentially unfriendly government. The radical groups in this rebellion certainly wouldn't want Nato in there at all.

Nato will absolutely not go in there nor will the UN do anything as long as there is the spectre of a Russian response.

I have more faith that Asaad used his arsenal then the Rebels getting it from elsewhere and using it without experience. You literally need specialized artillary and infantry trained in the handling of it and having the equipemnt to be able to work in a chemical attacked area.

I haven't seen the video's yet. But are there healthy people with exposed skin in the area?

I don't doubt that Sarin would be the most likely used agent, but the videos really don't show evidence of that. Sarin gas causes the muslces to remain a permanently fired state. You basically convulse to death and are unable to relax your muscles to breath.

The videos show people coughing, which is a sign that they are getting air in. You can't cough multiple times without air coming back in.

Another issue is the way the medical treaters are dealing with the victims. When someone is exposed to Sarin gas, the gas on their clothes and skin can be transferred to another person via the air or any exposed skin. You cannot treat victims of Sarin gas without a heavy duty hazmat suit of some kind. The treaters in the videos are wearing shorts and t-shirts.

A could be totally wrong here, but the videos just seem fake to me. There is so much tragedy there, that you could easily put a few staged shots of people supposedly in the throws of death from a sarin attack intermixed with shots of actual attacks and bodies pretty easily.

[worth]

The video in the following link is frightening:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/22/wo....html?hp&_r=1&

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by blankall

I don't doubt that Sarin would be the most likely used agent, but the videos really don't show evidence of that. Sarin gas causes the muslces to remain a permanently fired state. You basically convulse to death and are unable to relax your muscles to breath.

The videos show people coughing, which is a sign that they are getting air in. You can't cough multiple times without air coming back in.

Another issue is the way the medical treaters are dealing with the victims. When someone is exposed to Sarin gas, the gas on their clothes and skin can be transferred to another person via the air or any exposed skin. You cannot treat victims of Sarin gas without a heavy duty hazmat suit of some kind. The treaters in the videos are wearing shorts and t-shirts.

A could be totally wrong here, but the videos just seem fake to me. There is so much tragedy there, that you could easily put a few staged shots of people supposedly in the throws of death from a sarin attack intermixed with shots of actual attacks and bodies pretty easily.

They could be faked. With what I remember about Sarin gas from my training (20 some odd years ago), it would wipe out a exposed civilian population. That and because its persistent it would continue to kill for a while after the attack (up to weeks on surfaces not exposed to sunlight)

Its not mustard gas which is a blister agent. It could be cyanide based, but again that pretty well kills anyone in the effected area dead.

It could be a propaganda piece for all we know or a less noxious choking agent, Chlorine

It could also be a vomiting agent that causes irritation to the lungs and digestive track

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

They could be faked. With what I remember about Sarin gas from my training (20 some odd years ago), it would wipe out a exposed civilian population. That and because its persistent it would continue to kill for a while after the attack (up to weeks on surfaces not exposed to sunlight)

Its not mustard gas which is a blister agent. It could be cyanide based, but again that pretty well kills anyone in the effected area dead.

It could be a propaganda piece for all we know or a less noxious choking agent, Chlorine

It could also be a vomiting agent that causes irritation to the lungs and digestive track

From the above link:

The videos, experts said, also did not prove the use of chemical weapons, which interfere with the nervous system and can cause defecation, vomiting, intense salivation and tremors. Only some of those symptoms were visible in some patients.

The video is definitely shocking, as is the whole situation. It looks as though people are backing down from initial accusations though.

[spiteface]

NSFW!

http://freehalab.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/hundreds-of-children-gassed-in-damascus-chemical-massacre/

big time warning.. how long will this go on.. and how do people support the barbaric acts of bashar al assad and his regime, and the iranians/russians/chinese that support this!!!!!

[Neeper]

Originally Posted by spiteface

NSFW!

http://freehalab.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/hundreds-of-children-gassed-in-damascus-chemical-massacre/

big time warning.. how long will this go on.. and how do people support the barbaric acts of bashar al assad and his regime, and the iranians/russians/chinese that support this!!!!!

Unreal. It breaks my heart to see all those children dead. They are all the same age as my boys.

[Knut]

yeah.. not clicking that.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by blankall

From the above link:

The video is definitely shocking, as is the whole situation. It looks as though people are backing down from initial accusations though.

And I saw a news segment with a fella from England an "expert" that said it looked real.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

And I saw a news segment with a fella from England an "expert" that said it looked real.

My issue with this whole thing is that everyone is focusing on nerve agents as the chemical weapons of choice and particularly Sarin gas.

I keep reading in articles that they talk about toxic fumes, and to me that's not describing most nerve agents including Sarin, Vx and older gases like Tabun which are odorless and colorless.

What I've seen the effects certainly don't resemble blister agents with have a distinct smell, but the victims don't have blisters on them.

They could have been hit with choking agents.

Doing some research on Syria, they are a non signatory country, and they have home grown manufacturing for 4 different chemical weapons. Sarin, VX and Tabun which are colorless and odorless, well Tabun if its not in proper form can have a bitter almond smell. They also manufacture Mustard gas.

Mustard gas is also somewhat odorless and but murky.

Its immediate symptons are

• Eyes: irritation, redness, burning, inflammation and even blindness
• Skin: itchy redness that is replaced with yellow blisters
• Respiratory system: runny or bloody nose, sneezing, hoarse throat, shortness of breath, coughing, sinus pain
• Digestive system: abdominal pain, diarrhea, fever, nausea and vomiting

It causes immediate internal blisters if inhaled, but external blisters can take a few days to rise.


There's also the possibility of a over saturation using crowd dispersal gases such as CS, but I doubt those would kill in numbers but they could be described as having a distinct smell.


The other theory is that the Russian's supplied Syria with more recent weapons. Like Novichok gases which are designed to kill soldiers who are wearing standard chemical warfare suits. These drugs cause respiration failure and cardiac arrest. They symptoms match pretty closely to what I've seen, but these gases are also odorless and undetectable. The biggest advantage of these weapons besides their devestating effect is that they are several times more easily handled due to the use of precursors instead of being ready mixed in the war head.


I would hope that its not these weapons because that would point directly to Russian involvement.

[Daradon]

^^^ Yeah I don't think it's sarin either, I remember the attack on the Japanese subway system years ago, that was different.

But I don't know much about chemical weapons at all, so I have no idea what it may or may not be. It seems like it's something though. And I still believe it makes more sense that the government would use it over the rebels.

All that said, I wouldn't be surprised by much at this point. It could be anything or anyone. Just wish Russia would back down so the world could help.

[NBC]

The nature of Syria's chemical weapons program has been a great mystery to international arms control and disarmament community for years. Very little is known about the regime's policy decisions, stockpiles, production facilities, dissemination/delivery systems and so on. Right now the international community is struggling to come to terms with these accusations of alleged use on both sides of the conflict and the only thing that is accepted is that something very nasty is happening in Syria.

Misinformation or "black propaganda" has been a prevalent theme throughout the history of chemical and biological weapons usage, from the Yellow Rain controversy to the Sverdlovsk incident to the Iran-Iraq War. Until something definitive is known, speculation as to what is happening in Syria is pointless. Much of the sensationalism and "demand for answers" is journalistic hype. My old research group has been inundated with phone calls for comments and interview requests on the Syrian CW allegations. Like I said, nothing definitive is known at this point and any commentator/academic/expert that I know is echoing this sentiment. Pointless speculation may sell newspapers but it rarely leads to the one thing that most people desire - the truth.

There are things that do not make sense when looking at the Syrian CW allegations, that is for certain. But one problem that many in the West have is that they (we) tend to view events in the Middle East through a western-oriented "lens." This was a major problem in the West's dealings with the former Baathist regime in Iraq and it is no different with Syria. Understanding a state's strategic culture and how they view themselves in their immediate region can usually go a long way to providing a more accurate and robust analysis of a current issue or threat. Sadly, this has been the exception as opposed to the norm.

I am attaching a link to a paper on the Syrian CW allegations. It is a bit long (42 pages) but it is the most accurate and comprehensive analysis of the current situation. My apologies for its length.

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/spru/h...rs/HSPOP_4.pdf

[puckluck2]

The thing that worries me is that America is arming these Radical rebels without knowing their true goals.

Wasn't Binladen once a rebel who was assisted by the United States? Assad is a POS (please don't be reading this Syrian intelligence) but who knows what these rebels have in plan. They don't give a crap about the people just as much as Assad.

I fear that the Syrian government would be worse off without Assad and would send the Middle East into chaos. Sometimes you have to pick your poison wisely.