Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey

[GirlySports]

hmmm

something to chew on

Home teams went 14-2 last week, and are 23-9 on the year. They're 19-12-1 against the spread. Visiting teams have been whistled for 231 flags, compared to just 188 for home teams. Taken together, it's likely more than noise in a small sample.

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-repl...s?popular=true

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

hmmm

something to chew on



http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-repl...s?popular=true

It seems like every year or so we get a whiny article from the Vegas books about how something in the NFL is makign them lose money. A couple years back it was the gap between good and bad teams and how they might have to start raising spreads above 14.5. Last year it was that too many road teams were covering or some such nonsense. Every year this happens, they adjust and kill the public for the next few weeks. It's all a smokescreen.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

LOL, anytime. You mostly watching the games at home or you been heading to any of the bars on Sunday? I hit V Lounge last year when the Shark Club was having TV problems, and it was actually surpisingly good, despite the crusty waitresses.

I mainly stay home or go to a buddies house for Sundays. I'm absolutely addicted to Red Zone so it's almost a must for me on Sundays. I usually go out for the Thur or Mon night games if I do. Never would have guessed V Lounge for a good spot but I'll check it out if we do head out on a Sunday.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-repl...s?popular=true

Excuses! 2011 home teams were 21-11 vs 2012 record of 23-9, not a huge difference for a small sample size. But I went further and looked into total penalties for the two weeks in each season and 2011 calls were 223-182 (44.9% vs home team) compared to this year 231-188 (44.9% vs home team). Bang on percentage wise home vs away.

The replacement refs haven't been perfect but they are only calling a .5 a penalty more a game after two weeks, without leaning home vs away. Vegas is always looking for someone to blame when they lose money.

[HOOT]

WEEK 3

Carolina +1.5 (.5U) - LOSS
NY Giants +3 (.5U) - WIN
Over +50 (.5U) - LOSS

Arizona +4 (1U) - WIN
Cincinnati ML (.5U) - WIN
Jacksonville +3 (1U) - WIN
Tampa Bay +7 (1U) - WIN
Baltimore -3 (1U) - LOSS

May go in on the ATL/SD depending on how tonight/Sunday morning go. Still unsure about the GB/SEA game may skip it. Threw in the .5U on the Bengals game at +145, more just a feeling (never a good betting sign ).

Bet 6U, Possible Winnings 5.93U

Week 1: Missed
Week 2: 3-3-0 (-0.34U)
Week 3 5-3-0 (+2.00U)
TOTAL: 8-6-0 (+1.66U)

[rubecube]

I like the Bengals as well, but not enough to throw down on them. Same with the Titans.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

I mainly stay home or go to a buddies house for Sundays. I'm absolutely addicted to Red Zone so it's almost a must for me on Sundays. I usually go out for the Thur or Mon night games if I do. Never would have guessed V Lounge for a good spot but I'll check it out if we do head out on a Sunday.

Yeah, they usually have contests, and the food specials are decent (food isn't great though). But yeah, the way they have all the screens set up along the main stage is pretty awesome.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I like the Bengals as well, but not enough to throw down on them. Same with the Titans.

To be honest I just like betting even money (units) so once I middled (?) the NYG/CAR I had to put it somewhere and I was talking to a buddy at work about it today and I'm one of those people who would rather lose my bet than not win one I thought I should bet.

[return to the red]

Anybody play pools or is that to amateur for you hardcores

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by return to the red

Anybody play pools or is that to amateur for you hardcores

I use to play only pools at one point but didn't get into any this year which is why I'm trying to gamble like rube (I'm just not very good at it). I enjoy pools but it is a differerent type of game and I like being able to just pick a few games to follow but it was nice always having a game to watch in the pool format.

[return to the red]

alright CP need some help

who would you take:

Jets vs Dolphins
Eagles vs Cards
Pats vs Ravens
GB vs Seatlle (this should be an easy one but anything can happen in Seattle)

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by return to the red

alright CP need some help

who would you take:

Jets vs Dolphins
Eagles vs Cards
Pats vs Ravens
GB vs Seatlle (this should be an easy one but anything can happen in Seattle)

Dolphins
Eagles
Patriots
Green Bay

[Rjcsjc62]

TB +9 (1 unit)
AZ +3.5 (1unit)
STL +7 (1 unit)
TN +3.5 (0.5 units)
Cin +3 (0.5 units)
NYJ -1 (0.5 units)

Teaser: Clev +9.5; Clev/Buf over 37.5

2012 to date: 5-7-2 (-1.83units)

[HOOT]

Random stat of the day for the ATL/SD. No team playing in the East in the 15 year history of MNF has won the next week playing in the West. Don't have the energy to check it myself but thought it was interesting, even though in the big picture it means nothing.

[rubecube]

Adding HOU -1.

[rubecube]

That's more like it.

[rubecube]

Effing Ravens ruined what was otherwise a good weekend.

[rubecube]

4-2-1 is still good though.

[rubecube]

Also, home teams went 5-9-1 ATS this week. Vegas needs to stop whining. That being said, home dogs went 4-2-1.

[GirlySports]

I was off with my road favourites this week.

Atlanta was the easiest line ever.. but I'm shocked Detroit and San Fran were that bad.

and for big road dogs.

I got TB and KC to cover but STL got killed.

Got the home dog ARZ so I went 4-3