Kim Jong Il Dead?

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by Thor

Will they be playing Jong il Bells at the funeral?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

There's lots of really interesting things that happened when the walls fell, and the same thing will happen when the Korea's reunify, however reunification will only ever happen if china is removed from the equation, and the Army and Intelligent services are pacified, and the dynasty ends.

While the North Korean army is awesome in size, they're not a technology based army, and while their troops are the best fed in the country, they are still behind the South Korean army in terms of the individual Soldiers capability.

The NK special forces are vaunted, but that's because the Kim's were in love with the concept of infiltration, but I think that they would rank far behind the rest of the modern world in effectiveness and training.

The average NK soldier is encouraged not to be creative and to blindly follow his orders, the dicipline and training are incredibly brutal, and while the Force Multiplyer is expected to be between 3 and 5 to 1 in terms of killed to kill, I read that the NK kill multiplier has dropped to bellow 1 to 1, but that's what happens when you have disposible troops.

Going back to the drop of the wall, you have to remember that I was in the Military before the wall fell, I saw the Fulda Gap, which was expected to be the first point of contact between Soviet and American armor and infantry, and we all throught the Russians would be 10 feet tall and their tanks indestructible and there would be a fighting retreat all the way to the Atlantic. Years later I got to take a look at the incredibly cramped T-72 tank with the fuel line ringing the turret, the incredibly clumsy auto loader, and the terrible optices and aiming system, and I looked at a BMP (I think it was a BMP, it could have been a BRMD) and the exit door for the troops contained the diesal fuel tank and realized how wrong we had been about the Soviets for years.

They may have been crap but there was alot of them!

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

The night the Berlin Wall fell, stunned, rag-tag, East Germans staggered unbelieving through the glittering, neon-strewn and flush retail districts of West Berlin, past endless stores aglitter and stuffed with jewellry, clothing and technology . . . . . .

. . . . . and then they got angry as it started to occur to them how much they had been led down the proverbial garden path . . . .

A decade later, the Germans were still paying the bill of trying to normalize the East into a modern economy and Germany was called "the sick man of Europe." More than 20 years later, that's obviously started to change and Germany is the strong man of Europe again . . . .

The economic burden on South Korea should the North actually die a natural death would be something staggering as well.

The night the Berlin Wall was breached:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...660190,00.html

Cowperson

Great point! Pretty sure the economic toll would be far far greater in the case of Korea... East Germany was fairly modernized in terms of infrastructure, food production and basic necessities. East Germany even had a thriving industry in terms of engineering and electronics, optics, automotive and clock/watch production. What does NK have? They don't really have any exports to speak of, most their arable land (they almost completely rely on food aid) has been destroyed due to flooding caused by poor dam production, their buildings are falling apart and outside of Pyongyang no one even has electricity. It'll be like stepping out of a time machine for the North Koreans and I really wonder if the vast majority of them will be able to cope with such a steep transition when it actually happens.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

They may have been crap but there was alot of them!

I remember talking to on American tanker years later and he figured that a battle between the Soviets and American's would be a slugging match for the first couple of days, but the technology that the allies had in terms of American M1 first generation tanks and the German Leopards would have quickly wittled down the size advanatage, he also stated that he figured that the American's would have gained control of the air and had superior counter battery technology.

His specific description was that the Russkies would come to hate the term pop top after the first three days.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Great point! Pretty sure the economic toll would be far far greater in the case of Korea... East Germany was fairly modernized in terms of infrastructure, food production and basic necessities. East Germany even had a thriving industry in terms of engineering and electronics, optics, automotive and clock/watch production. What does NK have? They don't really have any exports to speak of, most their arable land (they almost completely rely on food aid) has been destroyed due to flooding caused by poor dam production, their buildings are falling apart and outside of Pyongyang no one even has electricity. It'll be like stepping out of a time machine for the North Koreans and I really wonder if the vast majority of them will be able to cope with such a steep transition when it actually happens.

I thought that North Korea was fairly poor in terms or farmable lands even before the flooding, I also understood from some books that I read that North Korea has extensive industries based around agricultural equipment and basic consumer products.

But they would still drain the South's economy

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by stacey

Wow, should be interesting see the fallout

Figuratively... or literally?

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I thought that North Korea was fairly poor in terms or farmable lands even before the flooding, I also understood from some books that I read that North Korea has extensive industries based around agricultural equipment and basic consumer products.

But they would still drain the South's economy

Yes they probably did at one point, but most of those factories are no longer functional. What's the point of running farm equipment factories when you no farm land to run things on? Kind of like studying economics at a communist university.... total waste of effort. Sad thing is people are still expected to show up at work even if factory work has stopped.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...304_96327.html

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Stalin was an incredibly brutal dictator that used the KGB to turn citizen against Citizens ruled by fear, put the people through incredible food shortages and openly destroyed people because he could.

The level of state mourning was amazing.

In North Korea because of the limited access to international media, and the inability to leave their country, combined with the iron clad control of the educational system, the rank and file North Korean not only believes that they live in a workers paradise, they believe that the rest of the world is in far worse shape.

The mourning is genuine, there will be no Asian Spring in North Korea.

Exactly, these people have been raised to follow the doctrine of the regime since they were children. They literally do not know any different. Its kind of scary to think that such a huge amount of people can actually be psychologically and socially engineered into believing and behaving how you want them to. But with the air tight control the regime enforces on their populous, maybe it shouldn't be surprising. I would bet any real pockets of revolutionary thinking are very very small in North Korea, if they even exist at all.

[afc wimbledon]

If I was N Korean I would be scared crapless of what was about to go down, under the circumstances I might shed a tear or two at Kim's passing, it would be a 'woe is me things are about to go from crappy to lethal' type tear though.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I remember talking to on American tanker years later and he figured that a battle between the Soviets and American's would be a slugging match for the first couple of days, but the technology that the allies had in terms of American M1 first generation tanks and the German Leopards would have quickly whittled down the size advantage, he also stated that he figured that the American's would have gained control of the air and had superior counter battery technology.

His specific description was that the Russkies would come to hate the term pop top after the first three days.

Just like in Red Storm Rising. I should read that book for the 100th time (not entirely kidding, I've read it a lot)!

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

There's lots of really interesting things that happened when the walls fell, and the same thing will happen when the Korea's reunify, however reunification will only ever happen if china is removed from the equation, and the Army and Intelligent services are pacified, and the dynasty ends.

While the North Korean army is awesome in size, they're not a technology based army, and while their troops are the best fed in the country, they are still behind the South Korean army in terms of the individual Soldiers capability.

The NK special forces are vaunted, but that's because the Kim's were in love with the concept of infiltration, but I think that they would rank far behind the rest of the modern world in effectiveness and training.

The average NK soldier is encouraged not to be creative and to blindly follow his orders, the dicipline and training are incredibly brutal, and while the Force Multiplyer is expected to be between 3 and 5 to 1 in terms of killed to kill, I read that the NK kill multiplier has dropped to bellow 1 to 1, but that's what happens when you have disposible troops.

Going back to the drop of the wall, you have to remember that I was in the Military before the wall fell, I saw the Fulda Gap, which was expected to be the first point of contact between Soviet and American armor and infantry, and we all throught the Russians would be 10 feet tall and their tanks indestructible and there would be a fighting retreat all the way to the Atlantic. Years later I got to take a look at the incredibly cramped T-72 tank with the fuel line ringing the turret, the incredibly clumsy auto loader, and the terrible optices and aiming system, and I looked at a BMP (I think it was a BMP, it could have been a BRMD) and the exit door for the troops contained the diesal fuel tank and realized how wrong we had been about the Soviets for years.

I've actually heard the opposite from this book...in a absurd twist they have the ability to show initiative...this is one of the reasons why the skirmishes with NK are common...the local commanders/soldiers show childlike initiative and lack discipline.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Just like in Red Storm Rising. I should read that book for the 100th time (not entirely kidding, I've read it a lot)!

I'm reading it right now. Great book. So much detail and it is so intricate.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I'm reading it right now. Great book. So much detail and it is so intricate.

My dream is to see it turned into a movie or two, it would be glorious (thinking of the Backfire bomber vs. carrier scene in The Sum of All Fears x1000).

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Just like in Red Storm Rising. I should read that book for the 100th time (not entirely kidding, I've read it a lot)!

One of the best books that Tom Clancy has written, and fairly accurate in a lot of ways, I read it until it literally disintigrated then bought a hard cover copy.

Technology trumps all, and since the T-34, the Soviet tank design has been fairly poor, they tried to automate loading which slowed down its reload cycles, they tried to lower the height of the tank which is a smart move, but they compromised on crew safety and survivability, the fire control was and remains a generation behind.

The M1 tank and the A1 would kill a Soviet tank long before the Soviet tank could accurately engage it, the American's would literally chop down the Soviet tanks from a distance.

Soviet doctrine always called for a 3 to 1 to 5 to 1 numbers advantage before jumping off and attacking, they would basically throw the kitchen sink at you in terms of mass artillary and frontal aviation, The American doctrine is based around the concept of fighting from a severe numbers disadvantage a long way from home, so they base their attack strategy around mobility instead of blind charge, and taking control of the air, and then using that air control to range out to destroy artillary and vehicles on the ground.

What made the Soviets frightening at the height of the cold war in the 70's and 80's is we made a lot of assumptions on the competance of their designs and the competants of their officer and NCO ranks. We found out after the cold war ended that they had severe design problems and their conscription and ranks system lead to what would probably be pretty bad leadership in the field.

the tanker that I talked to was officer level and he did give credit that the Soviets would gain a lot of ground in the first few days and then the American Technology advantage would eventually win out.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

I've actually heard the opposite from this book...in a absurd twist they have the ability to show initiative...this is one of the reasons why the skirmishes with NK are common...the local commanders/soldiers show childlike initiative and lack discipline.

I read portions of that book and decided not to pick it up because it was really a accumulation of other books I read.

You might want to try to find "The Armed Forces of North Korea" by Joseph Bermudez,

North Korea's Military diplomatic Campaigns 1966-1008 by Narushige Michi####a

Was a good read as well.

Under the leadership of the Fatherly Leader by Bradly Martin will give you some real insight into the Dynasty

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

My dream is to see it turned into a movie or two, it would be glorious (thinking of the Backfire bomber vs. carrier scene in The Sum of All Fears x1000).

I think it would be way to complex to develop into a movie.

The Iceland campaign alone and the long walk by Lt Edwards alone would be a good movie.

The carrier group and convoy escort parts would be a movie on their own to.

The land battles in Europe would be a six hour movie.

I forgot about the U.S.S. Chicago was very cool with some real tension generated when they attacked the Russian Battlegroup.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

North Korea's Military diplomatic Campaigns 1966-1008 by Narushige Michi####a

Haha. Good old word filter.

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Exactly, these people have been raised to follow the doctrine of the regime since they were children. They literally do not know any different. Its kind of scary to think that such a huge amount of people can actually be psychologically and socially engineered into believing and behaving how you want them to. But with the air tight control the regime enforces on their populous, maybe it shouldn't be surprising. I would bet any real pockets of revolutionary thinking are very very small in North Korea, if they even exist at all.

North Korea isn't a country. It's a grand experiment of the biggest religious cult in the world. Think "David Koresh" times about 24 million. The place operates by blackmailing the rest of the world into aid. It's military is the primary tool of that blackmail, and everyone in the region is happy to pay it as an annoyance.

The North Koreans literally believe their leader is a god. They also believe the rest of the world was destroyed in the Korean war.

There is no reasoning with them. There is no thirst for freedom. They frankly have no idea of how things work outside their borders. It's a medieval fiefdom, and when your population is more than happy to suffer starvation so long as your leader is taken care of... we'll you're not going to get any change.

I can guarantee we'll see very little change under the son. Who will probably be held up by the military leaders as a figurehead for the foreseeable future.

[BigBrodieFan]

Originally Posted by noel

It funny because he fat.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

North Korea isn't a country. It's a grand experiment of the biggest religious cult in the world. Think "David Koresh" times about 24 million. The place operates by blackmailing the rest of the world into aid. It's military is the primary tool of that blackmail, and everyone in the region is happy to pay it as an annoyance.

The North Koreans literally believe their leader is a god. They also believe the rest of the world was destroyed in the Korean war.

There is no reasoning with them. There is no thirst for freedom. They frankly have no idea of how things work outside their borders. It's a medieval fiefdom, and when your population is more than happy to suffer starvation so long as your leader is taken care of... we'll you're not going to get any change.

I can guarantee we'll see very little change under the son. Who will probably be held up by the military leaders as a figurehead for the foreseeable future.

I fully agree with you on a lot of points here, I would like to add some points

The North Korean people believe their free, they believe that the rest of the world is oppressed by the upper classes and they live in slavery.

Kim Jung Il survived by creating a constant state of war between the Military and their intelligence apparatus, they kept each other in check. But Kim wouldn't have survived without the backings of both groups.

the sense that I get is that our new young leader is more in the Military camp then the inteligence camp, that would explain why he's the first leader that was granted an actual military rank, and rumors persist that he authorized the NK attack on the SK frigate, which both showed that he was willing to rattle the sabre in a more direct manner and give the NK military a freer hand in how they operate.

I would be willing to bet that we're going to see an acceleration in military exercises and even more excursions into the south by special forces groups in the coming months.