Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I just think his over the top reaction is funny. "This chart is presented as a quintessential example of the failings of advanced statistics! Why is it a good example? Because I say so! Further, I shall now attribute extreme and unlikely beliefs to this individual I have never met, because his work yields conclusions that displease me!"

It's... a chart. The extreme reactions it provokes for coming to a conclusion that doesn't mirror the standings (which, I mean, just look at the standings if that's all that matters to you) would be baffling if not for that whole human nature thing.

All I am saying is that I find it pretty funny that you feel the need to defend this persons chart, all the time. You already know that some people aren't going to like it regardless, so why even bother taking the bait of their passing comment? This was a rhetorical question, no need to derail the thread more than I have.

[Jason14h]

If anything that chart shows how accurate the advanced stats are at predicting.

The Flames are the ONE outlier.

This is similar to how baseball advanced fielding stats don't properly take into account the shifting of the 3rd basemen to RF and has Lawrie as having the 2nd best fielding season EVER for a 3rd baseman.

Just because there is an outlier doesn't make the stats useless/incorrect. Basically every team, media, and fanbase have admitted the Flames make no sense this year, but as long as they keep winning who cares. (Similar to the Orioles who went 90% in 1 run games 2 years ago)

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by troutman

Assuming CGY beats TOR, EDM and PHO, the Flames only need to go something like 6-7-0 in the remaining games.

This makes the most sense to me.

Which means Calgary has to go 8-7 the rest of the way to (theoretically) make it.

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

This makes the most sense to me.

Which means Calgary has to go 8-7 the rest of the way to (theoretically) make it.

SOooo many trap games!

Toronto and Colorado up next.

Since March 2nd

CGY - 9/10 possible points
LA - 7/8 possible points
SJ - 6/8 possible points
MIN - 8/10 possible points
VAN - 5/8 possible points
WPG - 2/6 possible points

[heep223]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I just think his over the top reaction is funny.

Post the chart if you want (or fire it into the sun), but please do us all a favour and stop debating endlessly about it (not all your fault, others bait you as well).

I'm all for discussing and analyzing on this site, but this particular topic and chart is now going in circles (as you've mentioned) and you're not going to convince anyone of anything. At this point it seems to me that it's mostly just defensiveness and entrenching into positions.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by bomber317

SOooo many trap games!

Toronto and Colorado up next.

Since March 2nd

CGY - 9/10 possible points
LA - 7/8 possible points
SJ - 6/8 possible points
MIN - 8/10 possible points
VAN - 5/7 possible points
WPG - 2/6 possible points

Have to win just to keep pace, but on the bright side it'll be nice going into the playoffs like this.

[Street Pharmacist]

Here's McCurdy's projection after last night's game. Calgary over 50%



Here's sports club stats projection. Calgary closing on a lock to make it.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by bomber317

SOooo many trap games!

Toronto and Colorado up next.

Since March 2nd

CGY - 9/10 possible points
LA - 7/8 possible points
SJ - 6/8 possible points
MIN - 8/10 possible points
VAN - 5/7 possible points
WPG - 2/6 possible points

2 teams from that list are going to miss.

Like Trout said earlier, Calgary has to go roughly 8-7 the rest of the way. Of the 15 remaining games, Calgary plays 9 times against a team in the bottom 10 of the league (TOR, COL, PHI, CLB, COL, DAL, DAL, EDM, ARI). Hard to not get excited!!!

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

2 teams from that list are going to miss.

Like Trout said earlier, Calgary has to go roughly 8-7 the rest of the way. Of the 15 remaining games, Calgary plays 9 times against a team in the bottom 10 of the league (TOR, COL, PHI, CLB, COL, DAL, DAL, EDM, ARI). Hard to not get excited!!!

Pretty happy that Dallas no longer has Ribeiro, that guy has been a Flames killer over the years.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

2 teams from that list are going to miss.

Like Trout said earlier, Calgary has to go roughly 8-7 the rest of the way. Of the 15 remaining games, Calgary plays 9 times against a team in the bottom 10 of the league (TOR, COL, PHI, CLB, COL, DAL, DAL, EDM, ARI). Hard to not get excited!!!

[dash_pinched]

^

One of the best speeches/rants in movie history. Nice pull Troutman.

[AC]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

Pretty happy that Dallas no longer has Ribeiro, that guy has been a Flames killer over the years.

But Nashville does now, and we play them twice. Damnit.

[skudr248]

I feel bad for work. I will get nothing done once we make playoffs.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by bomber317

SOooo many trap games!

Toronto and Colorado up next.

Since March 2nd

CGY - 9/10 possible points
LA - 7/8 possible points
SJ - 6/8 possible points
MIN - 8/10 possible points
VAN - 5/7 possible points
WPG - 2/6 possible points

How is it possible for Van to have 7 possible points? Did they play a half game?

[PeteMoss]

FWIW -

Hockey Reference has the Flames at 83.5% http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[Street Pharmacist]

Here's the standing using games over 0.500. As a reminder, the flames will likely need to be between 12-14 games above 0.500 to make it (94-96 points).

Vancouver +14
Calgary +12
Minnesota +14
Winnipeg +11
LA +11
San Jose +7

Schedule difficulty says Wild and Jets falter and Calgary/Vancouver have it easy

Road/Home split says LA is in tough and Vancouver has it easy

Goal differential says Calgary/Minnesota make it easily with a +22. LA and Vancouver tired with +10 and San Jose trailing with +6

Fenwick close suggests the Kings and Minnesota should start winning a little more and the flames should plummet

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

How is it possible for Van to have 7 possible points? Did they play a half game?

Ineffective math.

Sorry, edited to fix the post

[Bourque's Twin]

This is my dream for the playoffs:

Round 1:
(PAC 1) Anaheim vs (WC 2) Los Angeles
(CEN 1) Nashville vs (WC 1) Minnesota
(CEN 2) St. Louis vs (CEN 3) Chicago
(PAC 2) Calgary vs (PAC 3) Vancouver

Round 2: LA, NSH, CHI, CGY advance.
(CEN 1) Nashville vs (WC 2) Los Angeles
(PAC 2) Calgary vs (CEN 3) Chicago

Round 3: CGY, NSH advance.

Round 4: CGY vs MTL

Winner: CGY, Gio's arm is healthy enough to take the cup from Russell.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Here's sports club stats projection. Calgary closing on a lock to make it.

SJ @ 17.7% ?

interesting.

[DuffMan]

I'm sure I heard them say during the int. last night that Minny had only 1 game against a non playoff team the rest of the way.