The Tariff Thread

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Slava

Hahaha, I’m well aware of what happened with Covid, and look if you want to compare a once in 100 year event to contrast this I can’t stop you. It’s a ridiculous gauge, but however you need to spin this to feel better about your position is fine.

You can spin it however you want, a Dow Jones opening of -464 points or -1.04% is forgettable, not historic.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Lol, look at the CME charts. There's been zero chance of a rate increase since Christmas.

Has there been longstanding tariffs since Christmas? For someone who talks so much about expectations you can’t acknowledge they can change.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Has there been longstanding tariffs since Christmas? For someone who talks so much about expectations you can’t acknowledge they can change.

When did this idiot start yammering about tariffs then?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You can spin it however you want, a Dow Jones opening of -464 points or -1.04% is forgettable, not historic.

You mis-understand what priced in means. It’s the summation of all the possible outcomes of future earning potential of the market.

The market did not believe Trump, therefore the penalty for the Tarrifs was small. As the market began to believe that Tarrifs were real it started to drop. When Tarriffs were aborted the market returned.

If the Tarrifs were priced in in November the market would have had a significant boost today when the likelihood of Tarrifs was decreased.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

When did this idiot start yammering about tariffs then?

No one believed he would implement longstanding 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. It was mostly brushed off as negotiation techniques.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GGG

You mis-understand what priced in means. It’s the summation of all the possible outcomes of future earning potential of the market.

The market did not believe Trump, therefore the penalty for the Tarrifs was small. As the market began to believe that Tarrifs were real it started to drop. When Tarriffs were aborted the market returned.

If the Tarrifs were priced in in November the market would have had a significant boost today when the likelihood of Tarrifs was decreased.

Thanks for the education.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

No one believed he would implement longstanding 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. It was mostly brushed off as negotiation techniques.

Then they did, the media flipped out, and people in this thread flipped out.

Here's the CME probability of the March decision being greater than each given target rate.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Then they did, the media flipped out, and people in this thread flipped out.

Here's the CME probability of the March decision being less than each given target rate.

You do know you are posting in a Canadian forum and not some hicktown forum out of Alabama right?

NO matter how much you type you aren't going to change our minds about Trumpy.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bonded

No one believed he would implement longstanding 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. It was mostly brushed off as negotiation techniques.

I feel like no matter how many times we say that, she just completely ignores it.

[sharkov]

Make America small again

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by sharkov

Make America smell again

it's bad. kinda like pig manure

[Bonded]

[QUOTE=butterfly;9326957]Then they did, the media flipped out, and people in this thread flipped out.

Here's the CME probability of the March decision being greater than each given target rate.

The media is not the market and that chart just lays more into the market didn’t believe Trump’s bluster.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

You do know you are posting in a Canadian forum and not some hicktown forum out of Alabama right?

NO matter how much you type you aren't going to change our minds about Trumpy.

Send my regards to everyone in Hanna while you play Nickelback.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Slava

I feel like no matter how many times we say that, she just completely ignores it.

Maybe she believes everything he says and assumes other people do? This might help her out but I’m done on this one lol. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/monda...134943527.html

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Send my regards to everyone in Hanna while you play Nickelback.

Lanny's coming after you!

Speaking of... where is Lanny? Did he get deported to Cuba after Harris lost?

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Not really. That's <2%. It had a negative impact on the market but nothing remarkable. Go back and look at what happened when we realized COVID was a thing.

Covid was a world wide pandemic that killed tens if not hundreds of millions of people and you want to equate it to some re+ard presidents agressive trade policies in terms of market impressions. “Covid killed millions and was worse than some tweets” no kidding sweetheart, way to go we are all proud of you for doing your best.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

nm

[Calgary]

Donny has CP in a fuss! Chess not checkers.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

Covid was a world wide pandemic that killed tens if not hundreds of millions of people and you want to equate it to some re+ard presidents agressive trade policies in terms of market impressions. “Covid killed millions and was worse than some tweets” no kidding sweetheart, way to go we are all proud of you for doing your best.

Yeah you can be the fentanyl czar. I'm sure Canadians would be universally proud.

[Bonded]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/el...-next-3dd74797

Spoiler!

Controlling the system could allow the Trump administration to unilaterally — and illegally — cut off payments for millions of Americans, putting at risk the financial security of families and businesses based on political favoritism or the whims of Mr. Musk and those on his team who have worked their way inside,” wrote Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, in a Sunday letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

We may already have experience what amounts to a 21st-century coup,” wrote Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman in a Monday edition of his Substack newsletter. “There may not be tanks in the streets, but effective control of the government may already have slipped out of the hands of elected officials.”

Interesting take. Tariffs might be a distraction after all