Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

No, it’s right there in the actual UCP platform:



https://unitedconservative.ca/Articl...ews_Mar152019&

Pretty sure I’m falling for bait, but this is a much bigger deal to a lot of workers than it is to you.

It isn’t some random shot at workers but would revert to the rules pre 2018 that were only changed as part of the NDP union drive.

Seasonal and construction workers regularly agreed to this to work while they can, often into over time on a given day or week, and banked hours for when the weather or the circumstance slows. It let them smooth their earnings and not worry about rain, snow, or downtime.

When the rules changed it was a crap show. Employers either had to send people home after set hours, or find a way to absorb a massive cost hit. The result was jobs stretched out, way more oversight, and way lower productivity. Ultimately that means employees on EI.

Workers usually had to agree to this and sign off. The worker agreeing on their own wasn’t enough for the NDP though. Conveniently, it was enough if it were part of a collective agreement. As long as the union got their cut, apparently the rules were fine.

[Kerplunk]

Originally Posted by kirant

It is worth noting that, according to people who have it, it is apparently in line with the paywalled Mainstreet daily polling data (with the last Mainstreet polling apparently showing an NDP lead).

I'm not fully aware about how accurate Mainstreet is (they apparently did a review and made significant changes to their techniques after bungling the Calgary municipal election, with "proof of concept" results made when they accurately predicted Ontario's provincial election)...using the previous tracking between the last election an this one, they seem to be favouring the UCP a little when compared to similarly timed Abacus and Leger data while being less favouring of the UCP than Lethbridge College. But it could very well be a reasonable result and a realistic possibility. I think the probability of a close race being fact increases if we get more and more agencies reporting the same result.

On reddit, it sounds like the stats crunchers still have it in the UCP's favour with the NDP needing to make gains in UCP Calgary strongholds to win the election.

I still take Mainstreet with a block of salt as well. I seem to recall reading that they corked up with a recent BC byelection as well, so whatever is wrong isn't fixed.

I'm interested in the methods they used for the online polling, out of sheer curiosity as an IT guy, but I haven't had time to dig around for it yet.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

If you were willing to change your vote to a different party based on one policy out of over a hundred then you were never going to vote for the ucp anyway.

Well I wasn't going to vote UCP to begin with because Kenney cheated to win the party nomination, and that behavior shouldn't be rewarded. But I was leaning towards not voting at all, or perhaps the Alberta party as a protest vote. Now though to see how stupid the UCP platform really is I'll have to vote NDP as a strategic vote

[woob]

Boy, that UCP platform is pretty dull. I was expecting more from them on the cost cutting/efficiencies side. Do I hold off on double meat?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by woob

Boy, that UCP platform is pretty dull. I was expecting more from them on the cost cutting/efficiencies side. Do I hold off on double meat?

A 1-2% reduction in healthcare costs due to reductions in management gives them a lot of credibility than hand waving 10%.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by woob

Boy, that UCP platform is pretty dull. I was expecting more from them on the cost cutting/efficiencies side. Do I hold off on double meat?

Don't worry our revenue will grow by 4.7% a year because of the corporate tax cuts which means we won't need to cost cut or find efficiencies.

[Muta]

Just though this was an interesting stat from that EKOS poll over the weekend.

Spoiler!

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Muta

Just though this was an interesting stat from that EKOS poll over the weekend.

Spoiler!

I'm not surprised at all by that breakdown. Putting the High school or less category aside, can you make an inference between the 'college or CEGEP' and the 'University or Higher' population group categories?

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Muta

Just though this was an interesting stat from that EKOS poll over the weekend.

Spoiler!

The EKOS poll is total garbage, nothing from that should be believed. Solicited by NDP allied Unifor, and targeted NDP friendly past voters in the poll.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Don't worry our revenue will grow by 4.7% a year because of the corporate tax cuts which means we won't need to cost cut or find efficiencies.

In fairness they do freeze program spending over the 4 years so that implies a 2-3% in cuts from inflation and a 1-2% or so cut from population growth.

Economic growth of 2.4% plus 1.6% population growth and a 10% increase in oil price aren’t terrible assumptions to be basing a budget around. That looks in line with a 4.7% increase in revenues per year

Also the NDP assumes 67 billion in revenue in 23/24 whereas the UCP assumes 62 million so it feels close once you take into account the corporate tax cut and and the Carbon tax cut

[Muta]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

The EKOS poll is total garbage, nothing from that should be believed. Solicited by NDP allied Unifor, and targeted NDP friendly past voters in the poll.

Garbage or not, it'd be interesting to see the distribution of education levels across Alberta voters in this upcoming election.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Muta

Garbage or not, it'd be interesting to see the distribution of education levels across Alberta voters in this upcoming election.

That will be interesting to see.

However seeing Unifor's distribution of hand picked voters with previously indicated NDP support is a waste of life.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

The EKOS poll is total garbage, nothing from that should be believed. Solicited by NDP allied Unifor, and targeted NDP friendly past voters in the poll.

It does reek a little like a 'push poll.' There was a twitter feed that EKOS mentioned that the poll was commissioned by a client and that the client 'leaked it.' The client being unifor. Given the NDP's ties to labour it seems like a nice way to pay for a poll outside of their own election funds and coordinate timing. But that is unsubstantiated speculation on my part. Up until this poll there were no indications that the NDP had any momentum outside of Edmonton. A 'push poll' is a tool in the underdog's playbook to motive their base to vote (Yes we do have a chance) and try to create a bandwagon effect for undecideds. Two weeks out from election day when none of the polls budged much in the first two weeks seems like the optimal time for such a poll.

That all said the UCP probably have to take this seriously though because this poll matched the timeline that they released policy platforms that were probably unexpectedly right of where the public was expecting on a few items. You have to figure that this pushed some people out of the undecideds into other parties and maybe even caused them to lose a few votes. That said the electoral math continues to strongly favor them. In the rural / suburban ridings outside of Calgary and Edmonton they have 38 seats that are all safe and likely won't waver. With 44 needed for a majority, that means the NDP basically have to sweep both cities in their entirety to win, including some areas of solid UCP support.

[lambeburger]

CBC won't be including this poll or others commissioned by special interest groups in their poll tracker:

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/s...67915584049154

[stampsx2]

Alberta has the second highest healthcare spending per capita only behind Newfoundland. 50% of all tax revenue collected in Alberta goes to healthcare spending.

Kenney already said the cuts won’t affect front line staff. Ahs is top heavy. Managers managing managers.

Considering management at Ahs gets 16 weeks of sick time, i think efficiencies can be found.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Alberta has the second highest healthcare spending per capita only behind Newfoundland. 50% of all tax revenue collected in Alberta goes to healthcare spending.

Kenney already said the cuts won’t affect front line staff. Ahs is top heavy. Managers managing managers.

Considering management at Ahs gets 16 weeks of sick time, i think efficiencies can be found.

16 weeks?? Holy ####, that's crazy. I wonder how long that benefit has been going on for.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Considering management at Ahs gets 16 weeks of sick time, i think efficiencies can be found.

Lol what? Do you mean 16 days? Even that would be overkill. I think we unofficially get 6-7 days at my work.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I believe it's that some non-union employees have no short-term disability coverage, so they get 16 weeks to address that, at which point long term disability insurance would kick in.

Which would make that a pretty misleading post.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I believe it's that some non-union employees have no short-term disability coverage, so they get 16 weeks to address that, at which point long term disability insurance would kick in.

Which would make that a pretty misleading post.

So, if they don't need to claim short-term disability, they can still vacay for 16 weeks if they want?

[Lubicon]

Or can the sick days be banked indefinately similar to the Federal government employees?