[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[Enoch Root]

F-ing head cold. The point still stands though.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And you can be sure on those things if you wish.

I look at a guy that has a career 11.8% shooting percentage shooting 4% through almost a third of a season as a little unlikely to continue. If pucks were going in at his usual rate he's have 8 or 9 now and this wouldn't be a concern.

So over the summer he's lost what was once a consistent year to year ability to shoot the puck? I don't know if I'm ready to just assume that.

I looked at last season for forwards and shooting percentage ... 4% is replacement level or 13th forward shooting ability.

So yeah it hasn't looked good, but to assume this body of work is the season and that's it is a pretty bleak way of looking at averages, especially with a player that has had a pretty good run of consistency.

This happens every year both in the high and low variety.

Chiasson is shooting 27%, that won't last. Hell Troy Brouwer is shooting 20% this year.

Things will normalize and Neal will move back to the 8-9% mark by the end of the season. At his shot/game rate that should settle into about 16 goals. The start is making his 20 goal season run a bit of a stretch, but things won't stay as bleak as they are.

I don’t think Neal is getting himself into good scoring positions. A lot of shifts it seems to me he is happy being on the periphery which I don’t think is his game. So while the low shooting percentage should improve some, I’m not surprised by it either. He just doesn’t look dangerous out there that often.

Neal has played for a bunch of teams his whole career, and he just signed his long term retirement contract. It’s a long season and he has some miles on him. I really think it’s a case of the guy just not having kicked it into high gear yet.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t think Neal is getting himself into good scoring positions. A lot of shifts it seems to me he is happy being on the periphery which I don’t think is his game. So while the low shooting percentage should improve some, I’m not surprised by it either. He just doesn’t look dangerous out there that often.

Neal has played for a bunch of teams his whole career, and he just signed his long term retirement contract. It’s a long season and he has some miles on him. I really think it’s a case of the guy just not having kicked it into high gear yet.

Totally agree.

And when he does kick it into high gear, and get himself into more dangerous areas, his shooting percentage will go up.

[Bingo]

Oh it's not just bad luck for sure.

It's his own game, finding chemistry with new linemates ... adjusting to a new city I guess (though he didn't take long in Vegas).

I think bad position part of the low shooting percentage, and a portion is bad luck.

Either way I see 14-16 goals by season end, and a disappointment but not a disaster.

[Phagoof]

Maybe move him to LW? I thought he was a LW when we signed him...

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Phagoof

Maybe move him to LW? I thought he was a LW when we signed him...

I don't think so, or at least I was under the impression he was brought in to help on the right side from the very beginning. It was always about improving that wing.

[PepsiFree]

Neal is a left-shooting RW. Not a LW.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And you can be sure on those things if you wish.

I look at a guy that has a career 11.8% shooting percentage shooting 4% through almost a third of a season as a little unlikely to continue. If pucks were going in at his usual rate he's have 8 or 9 now and this wouldn't be a concern.

So over the summer he's lost what was once a consistent year to year ability to shoot the puck? I don't know if I'm ready to just assume that.

I looked at last season for forwards and shooting percentage ... 4% is replacement level or 13th forward shooting ability.

So yeah it hasn't looked good, but to assume this body of work is the season and that's it is a pretty bleak way of looking at averages, especially with a player that has had a pretty good run of consistency.

This happens every year both in the high and low variety.

Chiasson is shooting 27%, that won't last. Hell Troy Brouwer is shooting 20% this year.

Things will normalize and Neal will move back to the 8-9% mark by the end of the season. At his shot/game rate that should settle into about 16 goals. The start is making his 20 goal season run a bit of a stretch, but things won't stay as bleak as they are.

I think Neal's biggest problem is speed. He lacks the speed to get into areas where he can actually score and I doubt that his footspeed will improve.

It is not exactly uncommon for players, particularly players who lack footspeed, to drop off substantially at a certain point in their career in terms of shooting percentage. Before the snowflakes jump down my throat, I am not saying that Neal is Lucic, but Lucic was a career 14.5% shooter going into last season. Last year he somehow dropped off to a 6.8% shooting percentage. That shooting percentage should have normalized, however it is worse this year (3.1%). If it had normalized at his career shooting percentage Milan Lucic would have the following numbers over the past two years.

17/18 - 21 goals 25 assists 45 points
18/19 - 5 goals 5 assist for 10 points (a 14 goal 14 assist pace).

For some reason last year a 29 year old forward suddenly lost the ability to score on the same percentage of his shots as he had throughout his career. There was no logical reason to expect Lucic to have this drop off, the previous 4 seasons he had a 14.3% shooting percentage, right around his career average. For some reason he has dropped off over the past 75 games (first 36 games of last season he had a 13.2% shooting percentage).

But I do concede the point that if Neal shoots at his traditional shooting percentage he will score more goals and would likely be a 20 goal scorer. Hopefully he is still a 11.8% shooter and not a 4% shooter.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I think Neal's biggest problem is speed. He lacks the speed to get into areas where he can actually score and I doubt that his footspeed will improve.

It is not exactly uncommon for players, particularly players who lack footspeed, to drop off substantially at a certain point in their career in terms of shooting percentage. Before the snowflakes jump down my throat, I am not saying that Neal is Lucic, but Lucic was a career 14.5% shooter going into last season. Last year he somehow dropped off to a 6.8% shooting percentage. That shooting percentage should have normalized, however it is worse this year (3.1%). If it had normalized at his career shooting percentage Milan Lucic would have the following numbers over the past two years.

17/18 - 21 goals 25 assists 45 points
18/19 - 5 goals 5 assist for 10 points (a 14 goal 14 assist pace).

For some reason last year a 29 year old forward suddenly lost the ability to score on the same percentage of his shots as he had throughout his career. There was no logical reason to expect Lucic to have this drop off, the previous 4 seasons he had a 14.3% shooting percentage, right around his career average. For some reason he has dropped off over the past 75 games (first 36 games of last season he had a 13.2% shooting percentage).

But I do concede the point that if Neal shoots at his traditional shooting percentage he will score more goals and would likely be a 20 goal scorer. Hopefully he is still a 11.8% shooter and not a 4% shooter.

What the hell is a snowflake?

Have we seen Lucic dangle through a defender and put himself in alone like we saw Neal in Columbus the other day?

Sure that's only one example, but from what I gather from Edmonton Lucic isn't even getting the chances.

But that's a good example the other way for sure, and it's possible it's over for the player, but I'm going to assume it's neither of the extremes; he goes on a bender and scores 25 this year or that it's just done for the player and they have an albatross.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What the hell is a snowflake?

An imaginary person from the future who disagrees with your opinion, so you take a preemptive jab at them.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What the hell is a snowflake?

Have we seen Lucic dangle through a defender and put himself in alone like we saw Neal in Columbus the other day?

Sure that's only one example, but from what I gather from Edmonton Lucic isn't even getting the chances.

But that's a good example the other way for sure, and it's possible it's over for the player, but I'm going to assume it's neither of the extremes; he goes on a bender and scores 25 this year or that it's just done for the player and they have an albatross.

Other examples would be

Rick Nash - Shooting percentage before the age of 31 - 13%
After 31 - 7.2%

Patrick Sharp - Shooting percentage before age of 31 - 12.3%
After 31 - 8.2%

Jason Pominville - Shooting Percentage before 31 - 11.8%
After 31 - 8% (although he has had a resurgence this year)

I think it would be reasonable to assume for the life of the contract that Neal has something closer to a 7%-8% shooting percentage based on what happens to a lot of guys after they hit 31 , which if he accomplished that this year based on the number of shots he has taken in the first 29 games he would have 14-16 goals this year (assuming he shoots at around 9.5% the rest of the year). He is probably a 13-17 goal guy for the first couple years of the contract and then a bit of a drop to an 8-10 goal guy for the final year or two.

[Enoch Root]

is Neal slower than last year? I don't see it. He is making some good plays and getting some chances, but a) not enough of them, and b) not burying them when he does.

I expect he'll get hot at some point, and go on a 5 in 7 stretch, or something like that. Then end up somewhere near 15.

Then in the playoffs, people will say "where was this guy all year?"

[badger89]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Other examples would be

Rick Nash - Shooting percentage before the age of 31 - 13%
After 31 - 7.2%

Patrick Sharp - Shooting percentage before age of 31 - 12.3%
After 31 - 8.2%

Jason Pominville - Shooting Percentage before 31 - 11.8%
After 31 - 8% (although he has had a resurgence this year)

I think it would be reasonable to assume for the life of the contract that Neal has something closer to a 7%-8% shooting percentage based on what happens to a lot of guys after they hit 31 , which if he accomplished that this year based on the number of shots he has taken in the first 29 games he would have 14-16 goals this year (assuming he shoots at around 9.5% the rest of the year). He is probably a 13-17 goal guy for the first couple years of the contract and then a bit of a drop to an 8-10 goal guy for the final year or two.

The common thread in the drop off in shooting % might be line mates. Neal and many of these players were 1st or 2nd line players at one point, then demoted to 3rd line. Losing PP time could also be an issue. Playing with Ryan isn't exactly the recipe for getting setup for scoring chances.

[edslunch]

I don't expect him to score as much this year due to his playing time and line mates. I do expect him to be a guy who can score at any time - those guys are gold in the playoffs. Haven't seen that guy yet, but not for lack of trying on his part.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by badger89

The common thread in the drop off in shooting % might be line mates. Neal and many of these players were 1st or 2nd line players at one point, then demoted to 3rd line. Losing PP time could also be an issue. Playing with Ryan isn't exactly the recipe for getting setup for scoring chances.

This is a good article on what happens as NHL players age
https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/

This chart goes over what happens to forwards and dmen by age

https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wor...raph.png?w=615

It basically shows that in every offensive situation (even strength and power play) there is a significant drop off at the age of 31. For both situations they peak around 25, they do not drop much until the player turns 31 and then there is a significant drop off from 31-36. It is reasonable to expect a forward who is 31 to significantly become less productive, the stats historically show that. Neal is not doing that much worse than what a reasonable hockey fan should have expected starting this year (I would suggest a reasonable expectation would be about 19 goals, with a steady decrease over the next 4 years). But it is reasonable to expect him to have a big drop over the next 4 and a half years from his historical output.

[Phagoof]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

is Neal slower than last year? I don't see it. He is making some good plays and getting some chances, but a) not enough of them, and b) not burying them when he does.

I expect he'll get hot at some point, and go on a 5 in 7 stretch, or something like that. Then end up somewhere near 15.

Then in the playoffs, people will say "where was this guy all year?"

This is what I'm hoping for at this point.

I still hope Tre adds a player for him to play with though, just seems like there is no chemistry so far with much of anyone. Well except the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Neal line. I would honestly like to see it again, especially now that Backlund is out. And then do Tkachuk-Monahan-Bennett as the second line.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by ThisYear

So you aren't inviting him to your Christmas party?

The party could have unlimited free beer and supermodels and he would be complaining about the dip.

[Enoch Root]

No one is disputing that players tail off offensively in their 30s. We all know this.

But some people talk like, at 31, he is no longer an NHL player and is a piece of garbage.

There is a LOT of room between those two things. He'll be fine.

[Phagoof]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No one is disputing that players tail off offensively in their 30s. We all know this.

But some people talk like, at 31, he is no longer an NHL player and is a piece of garbage.

There is a LOT of room between those two things. He'll be fine.

I was trying to remember who Neal was reminding me of this year, ...and then I remembered, and it wasn't good. Ales Kotalik.

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, no