Judge for yourselves but Nurse and Zadorov ahead of Monahan? Barkov at 5 behind Nichushkin? Ristolainen at 11? Yikes. I could've made a better list that year
I've bought both Redline and ISS and Redline's rankings are far better IMO. I do like ISS's little report card about player skills but I won't be buying it again.
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 03-04-2016 at 12:40 PM.
ISS has Nylander at 4. Redline has him at 10 right now. Truth is probably in the middle. Given our desperate need for size and strength I don't see passing up guys like Tkachuk and Dubois for Nylander, both have very intriguing mix of skating, skill, size, strength.
I wonder what kind of player the Flames would be drafting if Dallas pulls it off and we get 27th to 30th pick.
I would like if Pascal Laberge is available. 1.26 PPG, 6'1", skilled RW with a decently heavy board game. Still needs to add strength but he's ranked #28 by ISS, 31 among NA skaters by CSS, 26 by Bob MacKenzie's rankings, and he was great in the Top Prospects game along with Dubois and McLeod.
I don't mind DeBrincat either.
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Judge for yourselves but Nurse and Zadorov ahead of Monahan? Barkov at 5 behind Nichushkin? Ristolainen at 11? Yikes. I could've made a better list that year
I've bought both Redline and ISS and Redline's rankings are far better IMO. I do like ISS's little report card about player skills but I won't be buying it again.
Everything stated is absolutely true, though I would argue that some scouts did indeed have Nichsuhkin ahead of Barkov. There were some people that felt that Nichushkin had a higher ceiling than Barkov - perhaps the highest ceiling in the entire draft due to his size, speed and skill-set.
Jury I think will be out on Nichushkin for a while due to his injury-riddled year, but Barkov definitely had the much higher floor and was a relatively safe pick at becoming a franchise center. The majority of scouts did indeed prefer Barkov over Nichushkin, but there was quite a bit of chatter about Nichushkin possibly being the best player in the draft.
ISS is also a little bit different usually - I think they had Bennett first overall last year (or was that someone else? I am vaguely remembering it being ISS). They are hit and miss on a lot of things, but I do think they miss a bit more and seem to really favor certain guys too much, sometimes ignoring glaring warts.
Dubois has steadily risen. He was 18th In Jan, 13th in Feb and now 8th.
In Buttons mock draft last week he had Dubois to Flames at 5th. He said scouts are absolutely buzzing about this guy as he's really raised his game recently.
Then he said he is approaching the same level as the Finns.
Well I'm buying into the hype-I take Dubois as high as 3rd overall.
If you need some convincing check out this thread:
Some notes about the draft odds. Some of these websites aren't calculating them very well. For example lets say the worst team in the league wins the #1 pick which is the most likely outcome (20% chance). This alters the percentages for the next lottery. If the worst team wins (TOR in my example from todays standings) then the following percentages are in affect for the 2nd lottery:
If TOR wins we actually have a 14.38% chance of winning the 2nd lottery not the 11.4% tankathon says.
Now lets say EDM wins the 2nd lottery with the 16.88% chance. Then we'd have a 17.29% chance of winning the 3rd lottery not the 11.3% chance that tankathon says. Of course I'm giving the examples that end up giving us the highest chance just to show the disparity. The average result will be somewhere in the middle. But we should realize these tankathon odds are not calculated with everything in mind.
So if we did finish 3rd last we'd have a chance of picking top 3 somewhere between 43.17% and 34.8%. Not the 34.2% they say.
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 03-04-2016 at 08:29 PM.
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Is it true Chychrun is supposed to be on Ekblad's level? If so how do you pass on that after the top 3? And how did he not make a team Canada with a poorish D corps?
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those who watch WHL hockey, I would love your insights/opinions on all draft eligible prospects! Even if they are not expected until the mid-late rounds.
I watch quite a bit of OHL so I'll do the same.
I caught 2 Steelhead games recently and you know who I was most impressed with?
Not Nylander...
Not Mcleod...
Not Sean Day
It was 6'4 210 pound RW Nathan Bastien. He plays on a line with the 1st two I mentioned and he is all the muscle. Plays great defensively, actually uses his size and is physical, very good on the cycle and his best trait is how good he is around the net as a finisher.
This guy is totally flying under the radar and would look awesome next to JG and SM. I'd be very pleased to get him 27-40 OA come draft day.
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Is it true Chychrun is supposed to be on Ekblad's level? If so how do you pass on that after the top 3? And how did he not make a team Canada with a poorish D corps?
He was suppose to be the next elite D to come out of the draft. I think many had him pegged better than last years guys but not better than Ekblad.
Anyways he started out the season pretty slow and started to drop but the last 2 months he's been great. 21 points in 21 games.
I actually watched him play tonight on t.v and he was great. Phenomenal skater, great outlet pass and is he ever strong. He outmuscled Windsor's big 6'6 220 pound forward easily. Doesn't have a good slapshot though. I'd be happy with him at #4 but we need a winger more. I'm not sure he's the BPA there anyways..
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those who watch WHL hockey, I would love your insights/opinions on all draft eligible prospects! Even if they are not expected until the mid-late rounds.
I watch quite a bit of OHL so I'll do the same.
I caught 2 Steelhead games recently and you know who I was most impressed with?
Not Nylander...
Not Mcleod...
Not Sean Day
It was 6'4 210 pound RW Nathan Bastien. He plays on a line with the 1st two I mentioned and he is all the muscle. Plays great defensively, actually uses his size and is physical, very good on the cycle and his best trait is how good he is around the net as a finisher.
This guy is totally flying under the radar and would look awesome next to JG and SM. I'd be very pleased to get him 27-40 OA come draft day.
Our Riley Bruce is tougher. Not to say Bastien wouldn't be a good pick.
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Some notes about the draft odds. Some of these websites aren't calculating them very well. For example lets say the worst team in the league wins the #1 pick which is the most likely outcome (20% chance). This alters the percentages for the next lottery. If the worst team wins (TOR in my example from todays standings) then the following percentages are in affect for the 2nd lottery:
If TOR wins we actually have a 14.38% chance of winning the 2nd lottery not the 11.4% tankathon says.
Now lets say EDM wins the 2nd lottery with the 16.88% chance. Then we'd have a 17.29% chance of winning the 3rd lottery not the 11.3% chance that tankathon says. Of course I'm giving the examples that end up giving us the highest chance just to show the disparity. The average result will be somewhere in the middle. But we should realize these tankathon odds are not calculated with everything in mind.
So if we did finish 3rd last we'd have a chance of picking top 3 somewhere between 43.17% and 34.8%. Not the 34.2% they say.
Yes, the odds will change after the first lottery, but you can still calculate the overall odds of every possible outcome taking place beforehand.
Here are the initial odds for the first overall pick:
20.00%
13.50%
11.50%
9.50%
8.50%
7.50%
6.50%
6.00%
5.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.00%
Let's use your example of the Flames' current position of 28th overall (3rd in the lottery). Their odds of picking 2nd overall will depend on who wins the first lottery like so:
14.38%
13.29%
0.00%
12.71%
12.57%
12.43%
12.30%
12.23%
12.11%
11.92%
11.86%
11.79%
11.73%
11.62%
The outcome of the first lottery changes the odds of the second, but you can combine the two sets of odds to come up with an overall chance that the 3rd-last team picks 2nd overall.
There's a 20% chance that the Flames will have a 14.38% chance of picking 2nd. There's an 11.5% chance that the Flames will win the first lottery and have no chance of picking 2nd overall.
The combined odds of the Flames winning the 2nd lottery after any given team wins the first are:
2.88%
1.79%
0.00%
1.21%
1.07%
0.93%
0.80%
0.73%
0.61%
0.42%
0.36%
0.29%
0.23%
0.12%
If you add those up, you get a total chance of the Flames picking 2nd overall of 11.43%. That's what the Tankathon odds are showing.
So, yes the odds change as more information becomes available, but you can still use the initial odds to calculate the possibility of every outcome happening and then determine how many times each team is likely to pick in any specific spot depending on all of those outcomes.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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I was bored and decided to calculate the odds my self (and a couple people had mentioned that the odds posted around so far (like tankathon) were maybe wrong.
After wasting most of my weekend on it, I can confirm that the tankathon odds are correct.
Here are the complete odds:
Edit: okay, how do I load a picture? (I uploaded it to imgur)
Last edited by Enoch Root; 03-06-2016 at 05:54 PM.
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