Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Once again, you’re curiously selective with the polling data that you share.

...

One thing I wonder, just how accurate our polls these days relative to election results? I think of recent mayoral elections, and the US elections, and find that the polls show the race being fairly closer than the end results. I've also noticed that the more left-leaning candidates have stronger results on election day than the last polls before the vote.

With the polls consistently showing NDP this close with the writ about to drop, it seems NDP are in a position that they should feel confident in winning this. As long as they don't make a dumb error in the next several weeks. They gotta be perfect if they're gonna win a majority. Because it's not an endorsement of the NDP, it would be anti-UCP/Smith voting that gets them in.

[8 Ball]

Originally Posted by Joborule

One thing I wonder, just how accurate our polls these days relative to election results? I think of recent mayoral elections, and the US elections, and find that the polls show the race being fairly closer than the end results. I've also noticed that the more left-leaning candidates have stronger results on election day than the last polls before the vote.

With the polls consistently showing NDP this close with the writ about to drop, it seems NDP are in a position that they should feel confident in winning this. As long as they don't make a dumb error in the next several weeks. They gotta be perfect if they're gonna win a majority. Because it's not an endorsement of the NDP, it would be anti-UCP/Smith voting that gets them in.

I’m fairly confident that the NDP won’t make any glaring errors, the UCP are almost guaranteed to say or do something stupid, as is their norm.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by 8 Ball

I’m fairly confident that the NDP won’t make any glaring errors, the UCP are almost guaranteed to say or do something stupid, as is their norm.

Doesn’t hurt that the media is always on attack mode with Smith and leaves Notley alone never pressing her on anything or looking for holes in her campaign.

This election is for all of Canada not just Alberta.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1652123157204185088

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Doesn’t hurt that the media is always on attack mode with Smith and leaves Notley alone never pressing her on anything or looking for holes in her campaign.

This election is for all of Canada not just Alberta.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1652123157204185088

Wait, what?

Did you just say that the media doesn’t attack Notley in the same post that you shared a tweet from a person who works in the media attacking Notley?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Joborule

One thing I wonder, just how accurate our polls these days relative to election results? I think of recent mayoral elections, and the US elections, and find that the polls show the race being fairly closer than the end results. I've also noticed that the more left-leaning candidates have stronger results on election day than the last polls before the vote.

With the polls consistently showing NDP this close with the writ about to drop, it seems NDP are in a position that they should feel confident in winning this. As long as they don't make a dumb error in the next several weeks. They gotta be perfect if they're gonna win a majority. Because it's not an endorsement of the NDP, it would be anti-UCP/Smith voting that gets them in.

I think it has always been worth being cautious about how to interpret polling results. They are a pretty imperfect measurement tool that just happens to be the only one we have…

In Canada we face the additional challenge that polls almost never have useful data at the constituency level. And we know that the UCP has more efficient vote distribution, so the NDP probably needs to do better than tie the popular vote in order to win.

With that said, I also think one reason for caution on the polling data we’ve seen is that it’s too far out from the election. If I’m the NDP, I’m not necessarily looking at this as a tied race so much as one where the data shows the NDP trending up and the UCP trending down, and some signs of anti-incumbency sentiment that a strong campaign might be able to capitalize on.

And I think both parties know that the battleground is Calgary. Whichever party wins most of the seats in Calgary likely wins the election.

[Slava]

Yeah, but it’s voting distributions that matter. These polls that have say 2000 people surveyed in Alberta and try to predict an election outcome are really going to struggle. I’m not sure that 2000 Calgarians is a good sample to try to get to seat counts.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Slava

Yeah, but it’s voting distributions that matter. These polls that have say 2000 people surveyed in Alberta and try to predict an election outcome are really going to struggle. I’m not sure that 2000 Calgarians is a good sample to try to get to seat counts.

I think with a 2000 person Calgary sample (assuming that polls actually give you a representative sample and not a biased sample) can give you good riding level info by applying the partisan lean of a riding relative to the total of Calgary. Reasonable sample sizes from individual ridings are better but the risk of a non-representative sample goes up as sample size goes down.

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Wait, what?

Did you just say that the media doesn’t attack Notley in the same post that you shared a tweet from a person who works in the media attacking Notley?

You don't understand, he's complaining about Legacy/MSM media not attacking Notley, not the real journalistic media like Bexte. You know.... despite saying MSM are worthless and no one listens to them... He has a hard time of letting go of them, or won't give up until every type of media has the same "articles" denouncing the "pure evils" of this country.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Slava

Yeah, but it’s voting distributions that matter. These polls that have say 2000 people surveyed in Alberta and try to predict an election outcome are really going to struggle. I’m not sure that 2000 Calgarians is a good sample to try to get to seat counts.

I think we agree, though ironically in this case a 2000 person poll where all 2000 were in Calgary would actually give a pretty decent view of how this election is likely to turn out. Not because Calgary represents the province, but because Calgary is the battleground zone in an election where most of the districts won’t be that competitive (so we don’t really need polling data to predict how they will go).

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

You don't understand, he's complaining about Legacy/MSM media not attacking Notley, not the real journalistic media like Bexte. You know.... despite saying MSM are worthless and no one listens to them... He has a hard time of letting go of them, or won't give up until every type of media has the same "articles" denouncing the "pure evils" of this country.

Why would he be concerned about the “fake media” not reporting it? Seems a little paradoxical, no?

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Why would he be concerned about the “fake media” not reporting it? Seems a little paradoxical, no?

Exactly

[Cain]

Ah yes, the fiscally responsible UCP, which I guess is just code for spending tons of money on anything but poor people according to Yoho. What an embarrassing line of thinking and poster.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Cain

Ah yes, the fiscally responsible UCP, which I guess is just code for spending tons of money on anything but poor people according to Yoho. What an embarrassing line of thinking and poster.

Charity starts at home. Once in a while the people that actually pay the taxes can benefit as well as the never ending hands out from ground zero.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I think we agree, though ironically in this case a 2000 person poll where all 2000 were in Calgary would actually give a pretty decent view of how this election is likely to turn out. Not because Calgary represents the province, but because Calgary is the battleground zone in an election where most of the districts won’t be that competitive (so we don’t really need polling data to predict how they will go).

I guess what I think is there is a lot of diversity across the city. So 2000 people gives the idea of a bunch of close races (I’m assuming), but near downtown those ridings are heavy NDP. In the suburbs it’s heavy UCP, and “in the middle” it probably is more of a toss-up. I don’t know how accurate you could predict say Calgary Glenmore based on a city-wide poll at this point?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Charity starts at home. Once in a while the people that actually pay the taxes can benefit as well as the never ending hands out from ground zero.

LOL. Fiscal responsibility doesn't matter as long as it means the wealthy get a new toy.


Do you even listen to yourself?

[indes]

I love that ardent UCP supporters have latched on to Theo's "this election is for all of Canada". Just when you think they couldn't possibly be more out of touch with reality, they throw gems like this out.

Maybe they're just assuming the rest of the provinces will spend 4 years grifting the genius that is Danielle Smith? Or do they really believe that she is their saviour in the same way the Q'Anon folks view Donald Trump, where she'll just spend 4 years grifting these dummies?

My guess is it would probably be both and honestly can't think of any reasons that Alberta wouldn't be shell of its former self after a term of these morons.

[troutman]

Ordered my Orange lawn sign. To vote UCP is immoral.

[nik-]

If Danielle Smith is the soul of the country then what this country really needs is Shang Tsung.

[Geraldsh]

Originally Posted by nik-

If Danielle Smith is the soul of the country then what this country really needs is Shang Tsung.

I had to google that , is it a coincidence that his heart’s desire is named Sonya?

[Muta]

Even Shang Tsung likely wouldn't taint his collection with that one.