The New American Politics thread

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I question how much any of this stuff will hurt him with the people who are already in his camp. A lot, maybe most, of his support comes from people who don't especially like him. He's just a wrench to throw into the political establishment to show them that the status quo is intolerable. They won't be voting for Trump, they'll be voting against the 'elites' who Trump attacks.

I think it gives people an out. I always vote republican but I just can't. The McCain, Romney, Bush conservatives. People keep focusing on whether it will affect people who are already in his camp but they don't really matter too much. Of his 40% support you only care about the people in the 37%-40% range that may not be true believers. Polls have shown those people to be fluid.

If you can convince those people to stay home, vote 3rd party or hold their nose and vote Hillary you turn a close election into a sweep. Not to mention the large portion of undecided that recent polling has breaking for Hillary. So these "scandals" are not about how the base reacts, its how is soft support and undecideds will react.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

You keep telling yourself this...

And people keep expecting Trump's gaffes to hurt his numbers. But they haven't.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think it gives people an out. I always vote republican but I just can't. The McCain, Romney, Bush conservatives. People keep focusing on whether it will affect people who are already in his camp but they don't really matter too much. Of his 40% support you only care about the people in the 37%-40% range that may not be true believers. Polls have shown those people to be fluid.

If you can convince those people to stay home, vote 3rd party or hold their nose and vote Hillary you turn a close election into a sweep. Not to mention the large portion of undecided that recent polling has breaking for Hillary. So these "scandals" are not about how the base reacts, its how is soft support and undecideds will react.

even if Trump is so outrageous that a tiny section of the base start to crumble off, it's worth it. I think that range of soft support is wider than 37-40%. How many people are just voting for Trump because there's an (R) beside his name?

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

And people keep expecting Trump's gaffes to hurt his numbers. But they haven't.

Non-sequiteur.

My point is that if you look at the data on who's supporting Trump it's white nationalists. Not the losers of the neo-liberal world order as you claim. Sure economic outcomes for whites aren't helping but Trump's banner is racists and bigots who are touched by what Scott Baio said in his speech: "Lets make America, America again."

My point is that it's convenient to lay the blame for Trump at the "elite's" feet and at the left, democrats, whomever else for cultivating economic losers. But who's really to blame are Republican's and right-wing forces that have fanned the flames are racial resentment for the past 5 decades.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's far more convenient to simply dismiss the other side as a bunch of racists...

[Tinordi]

Even easier is to make unsubstantiated claims...

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

What claim did I make, unsubstantiated or otherwise?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Non-sequiteur.

My point is that if you look at the data on who's supporting Trump it's white nationalists. Not the losers of the neo-liberal world order as you claim. Sure economic outcomes for whites aren't helping but Trump's banner is racists and bigots who are touched by what Scott Baio said in his speech: "Lets make America, America again."

My point is that it's convenient to lay the blame for Trump at the "elite's" feet and at the left, democrats, whomever else for cultivating economic losers. But who's really to blame are Republican's and right-wing forces that have fanned the flames are racial resentment for the past 5 decades.

But who are the elites supporting Trump? Hollywood isn't. Gazillionaire like Gates, Buffet and Zuckerberg aren't. I agree the right wing forces have fanned the flames (tea party especially) but they're trying to fight for the little guy now.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I question how much any of this stuff will hurt him with the people who are already in his camp. A lot, maybe most, of his support comes from people who don't especially like him. He's just a wrench to throw into the political establishment to show them that the status quo is intolerable. They won't be voting for Trump, they'll be voting against the 'elites' who Trump attacks.

Good question Cliff. That has been something I've been watching for, some indication that a gaff is finally going to do him in with his supporters. The reality is that there is a segment of the population that just won't turn on him. Their focalism prevents them from seeing the failures of their candidate. This is a great example of the backfire effect, where people react to evidence against their choice by blindly digging in and strengthening their previous belief. It seems that the more Trump screws up the more resolve a large segment of his supporters build up.

Having said that, I do wonder what the criticism of Khan is going to do long term. This is going to be tough for those who served in the military but have these biases built up. Which alliegence is going to win out? I think this is a wedge that could cause some of his diehard support to peel away. The winner in all of this might be Gary Johnson for no other reason than he isn't Trump or Clinton.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Non-sequiteur.

My point is that if you look at the data on who's supporting Trump it's white nationalists. Not the losers of the neo-liberal world order as you claim. Sure economic outcomes for whites aren't helping but Trump's banner is racists and bigots who are touched by what Scott Baio said in his speech: "Lets make America, America again."

My point is that it's convenient to lay the blame for Trump at the "elite's" feet and at the left, democrats, whomever else for cultivating economic losers. But who's really to blame are Republican's and right-wing forces that have fanned the flames are racial resentment for the past 5 decades.

"Real America" only represents 20% of the electorate so his support is much broader than that. Now you could point toward racists in larger centers as well. But there is clearly more to Trumps coalition then racists and bigots.

[troutman]

Now he is claiming the general election will be rigged, because he will never admit defeat or that he is wrong about anything. Already making excuses.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

You keep telling yourself this but I think if you look closer at the data you'd find that Trump's supporters are older, whiter and wealthier than the mean. Trump's base is by far bigots, not people that are suffering from economic anxiety. That people are suffering from economic anxiety has been a story lots of legs, it just doesn't hold up to the data. There's a much easier way to explain Trump's appeal, racists, bigots, and people who don't like how America is changing have rallied behind him.

Do you have a citation for that?

I recall this article which showed that Trump's support largely comes from whites who did not attend post secondary education. Since education is positively correlated with income in the US, I would be surprised to see Trump supporters on the richer end of the spectrum.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by troutman

Now he is claiming the general election will be rigged, because he will never admit defeat or that he is wrong about anything. Already making excuses.

I would be shocked if he even bothers to prepare or deliver a concession speech for a loss.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by New Era

Good question Cliff. That has been something I've been watching for, some indication that a gaff is finally going to do him in with his supporters. The reality is that there is a segment of the population that just won't turn on him. Their focalism prevents them from seeing the failures of their candidate. This is a great example of the backfire effect, where people react to evidence against their choice by blindly digging in and strengthening their previous belief. It seems that the more Trump screws up the more resolve a large segment of his supporters build up.

I think this is a misdiagnosis, in that I don't think that his supporters are, by and large, blind to his flaws - at least, I don't get the sense that this is the case with the average Trump person. They recognize his flaws as being on full display and see this as some perverse form of honesty. "This guy's not hiding anything or playing coy politics like all the other phonies; he says what he means". And because those flaws are out in the open for all to see, they're willing to accept them and minimize them or attempt to spin them into something that's simultaneously a good thing somehow. It's not that his supporters think you're wrong about him being an arrogant loudmouth who can't possibly relate to the average person in the country he wants to govern, it's that they don't really care.

The one thing that does seem to just fly over their heads universally is the fact that notwithstanding his candor and lack of political filter, he's still a total liar.

[Drak]

Nm

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Drak

Paul Ryan just announced he's voting for Clinton

EDIT: I can't find anything on this and suspect you've been had.

[ResAlien]

Can't find anything either. That would be insane, no way that happens. Speaker of the House going against the party?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It would be the end of the election. Not sure what it would do to Paul Ryan's career. I feel like they only way he abandons Trump is if the whole party leadership does simultaneously. I think they got the deal they could live with and will stick to it - "We'll back you, and if you somehow win, you nominate the following USSC judges and Mike Pence runs the country."

[Drak]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

EDIT: I can't find anything on this and suspect you've been had.

I suspect youre right. I saw it on a Mother Jones feed which I can no longer find. My apologies.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Do you have a citation for that?

I recall this article which showed that Trump's support largely comes from whites who did not attend post secondary education. Since education is positively correlated with income in the US, I would be surprised to see Trump supporters on the richer end of the spectrum.

"I love the poorly educated" ~ Donald Trump