Yet from numerous perspectives, when viewed from a bang-per-buck perspective, US and Western support for Ukraine is an incredibly cost-effective investment.
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In cold, geopolitical terms, this war provides a prime opportunity for the US to erode and degrade Russia’s conventional defense capability, with no boots on the ground and little risk to US lives.
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Second, the war has served to destroy the myth that Russian military technology is somehow comparable to that of the US and West. Remember that Ukraine is using only upgraded second generation US technology but is consistently beating whatever Russia’s military can deploy.
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Third, the revelation that Russia’s defense industry is something of a Potemkin village also generates other strategic and diplomatic wins for the US. Countries eager to secure defense capability to meet their own threats – think of Turkey, India, Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia — might have opted for cheaper, “value” Russian defense offerings. However, with the quality/capability of this equipment now being questioned because of poor battlefield performance, they will likely be vying to acquire a better US kit. But this will require improved diplomatic relations.
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Fourth, helping Ukraine beat Russia surely also sends a powerful signal to China that the US and its allies are strong and determined when challenged on issues of core importance.
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Fifth, the war in Ukraine is encouraging and accelerating the energy transition in Europe, but also Europe’s diversification away from Russian energy. Europe is desperately trying to source alternative energy supplies, and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) is proving to be the obvious beneficiary.
Fifth, the war in Ukraine is encouraging and accelerating the energy transition in Europe, but also Europe’s diversification away from Russian energy. Europe is desperately trying to source alternative energy supplies, and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) is proving to be the obvious beneficiary.
I heard there is no business case for that.
US once again drinking our milkshake.
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I don't want to derail the thread with energy transition talk, but will Europe be able to be completely off Russian sources of energy forever though? I know they are making massive sacrifices and paying sky high costs, trying to as efficient as possible. Will they be able to continue to fill storage facilities going into NEXT winter? We keep hearing how storage facilities are near fill and other sources of fossil fuels have allowed them to most likely be ok this year without cutting off electricity or having blackouts. That is about as razor thin margin as possible.
I don't buy this narrative that Europe will be magically powered by clean tech and energy from other countries for the rest of our lifetime.
I don't want to derail the thread with energy transition talk, but will Europe be able to be completely off Russian sources of energy forever though? I know they are making massive sacrifices and paying sky high costs, trying to as efficient as possible. Will they be able to continue to fill storage facilities going into NEXT winter? We keep hearing how storage facilities are near fill and other sources of fossil fuels have allowed them to most likely be ok this year without cutting off electricity or having blackouts. That is about as razor thin margin as possible.
I don't buy this narrative that Europe will be magically powered by clean tech and energy from other countries for the rest of our lifetime.
I think they're just biding their time. Germany committed, what, something like $100B to rearmament of their military?
If the Germans plough that amount of cash into their armed forces I'm convinced that they can take Stalingrad this time...
And then its not technically 'Russia's' gas anymore right? Right?
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I don't want to derail the thread with energy transition talk, but will Europe be able to be completely off Russian sources of energy forever though? I know they are making massive sacrifices and paying sky high costs, trying to as efficient as possible. Will they be able to continue to fill storage facilities going into NEXT winter? We keep hearing how storage facilities are near fill and other sources of fossil fuels have allowed them to most likely be ok this year without cutting off electricity or having blackouts. That is about as razor thin margin as possible.
I don't buy this narrative that Europe will be magically powered by clean tech and energy from other countries for the rest of our lifetime.
Literally not a soul thinks they'll be off gas by next year, the year after, or even several years after that. There's little doubt next year will be worse than this one unless Russia starts sending gas again. But 5 to 10 years from now look way, way, way different than they did before the invasion
Literally not a soul thinks they'll be off gas by next year, the year after, or even several years after that. There's little doubt next year will be worse than this one unless Russia starts sending gas again. But 5 to 10 years from now look way, way, way different than they did before the invasion
Not disagreeing here, just wanting to put a certain perspective on this;
Europe is rich, hi-tech country with tons of global political leverage, so it can always find a way, when given time. Also, gas and oil move around in a global market, and so does energy.
So what is already happening and what's likely to happen more is two things; 1) Europeans buy more energy from outside Russia, and places that used to buy energy from outside Russia will buy from Russia. It takes some fiddling and time and add a lot of costs, but things like LNG capabilities have turned out to be fairly quick to build in a pinch.
2) Countries buy Russian fossil fuels, put their own stamp on the tankers and barrels and sell it as totally-not-Russian. India at least is already doing this. Additionally, countries with their own production of oil can buy Russian oil and use it locally, while selling more of their own production to Europe. Really the same thing; Europeans totally not buying Russia oil, while totally being a part of helping Russia sell their oil.
(Since Russians are somewhat short on buyers you can get Russian oil at a very discounted price.)
Oil isn't an issue, but gas could be. The LNG import expansions that will be ready by late 2023 are only enough to cover about 30% of what they normally got from Russia.
On top of that, in a normal year the storage reserves at the end of the heating season are 40-60% full which creates a buffer, but they might be near empty this year.
There were apparently 2 large gas explosions in Russia over the weekend. One on a pipeline just outside of St. Petersburg and one in a residential building on Sakhalin Island that killed 9 people and injured dozens.
No causes are known yet, but it seems like a pretty big coincidence. I can't help but wonder if sanctions are reducing their ability to maintain their infrastructure, particularly with the pipeline incident. The one on Sakhalin Island could just be one of those unfortunate freak things that happen from time to time though.
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Russians are preparing to turn over the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power plant to the IAEA and the Pope's buddy. Putin now focused on clinging to power and hoping the UAF don't retake Crimea.
There were apparently 2 large gas explosions in Russia over the weekend. One on a pipeline just outside of St. Petersburg and one in a residential building on Sakhalin Island that killed 9 people and injured dozens.
No causes are known yet, but it seems like a pretty big coincidence. I can't help but wonder if sanctions are reducing their ability to maintain their infrastructure, particularly with the pipeline incident. The one on Sakhalin Island could just be one of those unfortunate freak things that happen from time to time though.
That is quite the explosion. I wonder though if maybe some internal things are going on that far away from Ukraine. But being on the coast, who knows, seems like many options here to hit that location.
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That is quite the explosion. I wonder though if maybe some internal things are going on that far away from Ukraine. But being on the coast, who knows, seems like many options here to hit that location.
It's also possible that they just don't have the expertise or materiel to properly maintain these systems as a result of sanctions.
This feels like a movie where a prisoner is being tortured/interrogated and there is such a simple solution to end it all. But the prisoner refuses out of pride.
Russia can end all its own suffering and that of Ukraine if they GTFO. But they refuse to out of pride.
FIFA president Gianni Infantino has issued a plea for a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine for the duration of the 2022 World Cup, calling for all sides to use the tournament as a "positive trigger" to work toward a resolution.
Adding to the "Infantino is a delusion #######" pile.
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It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia
