The Tariff Thread

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by WideReceiver

I’ve tried Mexican Coke—the soft drink—at the World of Coke in Vegas. Pretty good, as I recall.

They just use cane sugar instead of corn syrup. It’s way better, it’s also not from that #### hole.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Those are intraday numbers and the variance isn't all that special. The tariff imposition was already priced in when Trump started crowing about it in November. When the Mexican news came out it was unexpected and led to loss mitigation. Nothing really newsworthy about the whole thing.

lol, you can spin this however you want, but the reality is that Trump cares about the stock market. He loves a scoreboard and I have no doubt he say the chaos these tariffs were going to cause and he found a way to save face and back out. You might not think that this was a significant move in value, and that’s fine, but keep in mind those tariffs never came into force. The real damage the tariffs do economically is over the long term, and these had a significant impact without even being levied.

And no, there was almost no impact on the markets November 25/26. He threw out the tariffs and people noticed, but assumed it was a negotiation ploy. Even last week, the TSX rose right up until late in the Friday session, likely because no one thought the tariffs were coming in. When Trump actually announced them Saturday was the first time people thought it was serious. But even this morning, pre-market there were rumblings that he might back down.

Anyway, my opinion is that other than Canadian energy (where it was accounted for), this wasn’t priced in, and surely not in the US. Traders were far too sanguine about this issue, given how far your glorious leader pushed this before caring this time around. It will be interesting to see how they react in 30 days.

[Mazrim]

Winnipeg better still boo the US anthem tomorrow.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Those are intraday numbers and the variance isn't all that special. The tariff imposition was already priced in when Trump started crowing about it in November. When the Mexican news came out it was unexpected and led to loss mitigation. Nothing really newsworthy about the whole thing.

hmm

Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb ####ing question again.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Slava

lol, you can spin this however you want, but the reality is that Trump cares about the stock market. He loves a scoreboard and I have no doubt he say the chaos these tariffs were going to cause and he found a way to save face and back out. You might not think that this was a significant move in value, and that’s fine, but keep in mind those tariffs never came into force. The real damage the tariffs do economically is over the long term, and these had a significant impact without even being levied.

And no, there was almost no impact on the markets November 25/26. He threw out the tariffs and people noticed, but assumed it was a negotiation ploy. Even last week, the TSX rose right up until late in the Friday session, likely because no one thought the tariffs were coming in. When Trump actually announced them Saturday was the first time people thought it was serious. But even this morning, pre-market there were rumblings that he might back down.

Anyway, my opinion is that other than Canadian energy (where it was accounted for), this wasn’t priced in, and surely not in the US. Traders were far too sanguine about this issue, given how far your glorious leader pushed this before caring this time around. It will be interesting to see how they react in 30 days.

Spin, lol. For the thousandth time, I abhor tariffs as they create needless economic inefficiencies that leave people worse off in the aggregate.

Trump was crowing about it before November. He's made no attempt to hide his agenda, which was multiplied by his implied chance of winning and priced into the equity, forex, and treasury markets long before the election occurred. The yield on the 10-year is up 2 basis points today. Huzzah?

People are flipping out like it's a COVID shock. It's just not a big deal. Trudeau handled it today like he should have on Saturday when almost everyone in the media and online were losing their marbles.

We have a republic here, which means there is no "glorious leader". The power rests in the Congress. Is Justin Trudeau your "glorious leader"? Or would that be Stephen Harper? Take a step back and breathe.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by nik-

hmm

Have you contributed to an 8-K/10-K filing or earnings call in your life?

It's cool though, conspiracies abound, ladies and gentlemen!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by butterfly

We have a republic here, which means there is no "glorious leader". The power rests in the Congress. Is Justin Trudeau your "glorious leader"? Or would that be Stephen Harper? Take a step back and breathe.

Mmmm....I dont know. The US President holds alot more unilateral power than a Canadian Prime Minister.

You're supposed to be the ones with 'Checks and Balances.'

[nik-]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Have you contributed to an 8-K/10-K filing or earnings call in your life?

It's cool though, conspiracies abound, ladies and gentlemen!

Those calls are priced in.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Locke

Mmmm....I dont know. The US President holds alot more unilateral power than a Canadian Prime Minister.

You're supposed to be the ones with 'Checks and Balances.'

They do? Who's checking and balancing the prime minister when they have a majority in the Parliament?

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Lol the markets hardly moved. As I said yesterday, this was telegraphed in November. S&P was -0.9% at the worst before the Mexican news? That happens frequently.

the S&P was down over 3.1% from 1230pm on Friday to 10am Monday. I'd say that was a rather substantial move in less then one trading day.

[V]

Vix barely crossed 20, it was mostly priced in. Pre-market trading got a little excited, but it was corrected almost immediately upon the open. Almost as if the market knew he was full of crap.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Dan02

the S&P was down over 3.1% from 1230pm on Friday to 10am Monday. I'd say that was a rather substantial move in less then one trading day.

...

Originally Posted by butterfly

Those are intraday numbers and the variance isn't all that special. The tariff imposition was already priced in when Trump started crowing about it in November. When the Mexican news came out it was unexpected and led to loss mitigation. Nothing really newsworthy about the whole thing.

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I have a very hard time understanding how this couldn't be negotiated without the market chaos and the breaking of trade agreements.

Unless the Liberals were refusing to spend $1.5 billion on border protection and working with the US, this is a no brainer to commit to.

Sad that a lot of damage had to be done.

I have a question.

President Trump is apparently upset that Canada and/or Mexico are not putting enough effort into protecting the USA border.

Does the USA put any effort into Protecting the borders of Canada and/or Mexico? Do they intercept illegal drug shipments headed to Canada? firearms headed to Canada? People crossing the border headed to Canada?

I struggle to find reciprocity.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by V

Vix barely crossed 20, it was mostly priced in. Pre-market trading got a little excited, but it was corrected almost immediately upon the open. Almost as if the market knew he was full of crap.

Closed minded conspiracists like Nik want to believe it's apocalyptic, so I'm inclined to let them.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Winnipeg better still boo the US anthem tomorrow.

Calgary just shouldn't play it at all. That will show them.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Closed minded conspiracists like Nik want to believe it's apocalyptic, so I'm inclined to let them.

You're literally the one that brought up conspiracy theories. What in the actual #### are you even talking about? haha

Who is this corny weirdo?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Spin, lol. For the thousandth time, I abhor tariffs as they create needless economic inefficiencies that leave people worse off in the aggregate.

Trump was crowing about it before November. He's made no attempt to hide his agenda, which was multiplied by his implied chance of winning and priced into the equity, forex, and treasury markets long before the election occurred. The yield on the 10-year is up 2 basis points today. Huzzah?

People are flipping out like it's a COVID shock. It's just not a big deal. Trudeau handled it today like he should have on Saturday when almost everyone in the media and online were losing their marbles.

We have a republic here, which means there is no "glorious leader". The power rests in the Congress. Is Justin Trudeau your "glorious leader"? Or would that be Stephen Harper? Take a step back and breathe.

The market was not fully pricing in an extended period of tariffs at all. Some of it was slightly priced in but the prevailing belief was that he wasn’t going to actually push through with them. If he didn’t push those a month then the market would have bled most of the week. The indexes recovered intraday with the announcement he pushed Mexico by a month.

[scotty2hotty]

Originally Posted by para transit fellow

I have a question.

President Trump is apparently upset that Canada and/or Mexico are not putting enough effort into protecting the USA border.

Does the USA put any effort into Protecting the borders of Canada and/or Mexico? Do they intercept illegal drug shipments headed to Canada? firearms headed to Canada? People crossing the border headed to Canada?

I struggle to find reciprocity.

None of this is about borders or fentanyl (at least on the Canada side).

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by nik-

You're literally the one that brought up conspiracy theories. What in the actual #### are you even talking about? haha

Who is this corny weirdo?

You don't believe that expectations can be priced into the market. Why do you think it's so newsworthy when Lagarde makes a speech? People want to hear the expectations and adjust their strategy accordingly.

What do you have to offer, AirPod 11s?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You don't believe that expectations can be priced into the market. Why do you think it's so newsworthy when Lagarde makes a speech? People want to hear the expectations and adjust their strategy accordingly.

What do you have to offer, AirPod 11s?

Where did I say that? What are you even talking about? I posted a ####ing meme.

You should step away from they keyboard for a break, you're clearly frothing.