The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You are missing that they don't have elite goaltending.

They didn't last season, and it didn't seem to hurt them. As GioforPM has already pointed out, the Flames finished with a +66 goal-differential last year despite also having questionable goaltending. What's different this year from last year?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I think Tkachuk is probably the second slowest forward on the team, behind only Lucic.

I think it's questionable whether he's even the most effective player on his own line... which is the second line.

He put up an impressive goal total on a team that posted a record number of goals, and I think it's reasonable to question whether we can expect him to consistently repeat that production.

So I think there is significant risk in giving him the biggest contract in franchise history, and paying him to be one of the top 20 players in the league.

He has been a high producer his whole career. Really smart hockey players with high hockey IQ's don't need to be the fastest guy out there. There is nothing to indicate anything will fall off for Chucky before 30 barring a major injury. As to being questionably the most effective player on the 2nd line you are joking right? Come on man, it isn't remotely close.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

He has been a high producer his whole career. Really smart hockey players with high hockey IQ's don't need to be the fastest guy out there. There is nothing to indicate anything will fall off for Chucky before 30 barring a major injury. As to being questionably the most effective player on the 2nd line you are joking right? Come on man, it isn't remotely close.

It is closer than most realise. Last year Tkachuk scored 23 goals and 53 points at even strength. Mikael Backlund scored 20 and 45.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why do the Flames need to score +275 goals this season? You yourself noted that it is an especially rare accomplishment—I don't see why it would make-or-break the Flames given that almost every NHL team fails to hit that number every year.

What am I missing?

The risk that Tkachuk does not put up 8x8 numbers is significant.

His and all the Flames points were inflated by the magic season.

[TheScorpion]

Do you have an ounce of proof about that Ricardo or are you just applying some sort of regression tag to a player whose pedigree and production and underlying metrics all suggest continued progression

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The risk that Tkachuk does not put up 8x8 numbers is significant.

"8x8 numbers"? What are these?

His and all the Flames points were inflated by the magic season.

"Inflated"? "Magic season"?

The Flames were among the league leaders in nearly every meaningful statistical category. Their performance was not on the strength of an otherworldly individual performance or smoke and mirrors.

[blender]

I'm sure Ricardo has no proof of anything, but that doesn't make his concerns invalid. As much as I love Tkachuk as a player and believe he will be a major contributor to the Flames success moving forward, there are always concerns.
He had a concussion two seasons ago that ended his season, and he was popped by Zadorov in the playoffs and was ineffective for the rest of the series. Another concussion? Who knows. Point being there is always risk. Also, is 8x8 the new 6x6? If so, then might as well sign him, but can't fault Treliving for trying to push a hard bargain. He is not the Flames best player right now, period. He is probably third-best with Backlund and Monahan right there with him.

I think the lower-than-expected cap increase has a lot of GMs worried about meeting current salary demands. Is it a one-time thing or is this the new normal? No one really knows and with the uncertainty comes risk.
The kid is going to get paid, no doubt, but I'm happy for our GM to play hardball to keep the dollars down.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Do you have an ounce of proof about that Ricardo or are you just applying some sort of regression tag to a player whose pedigree and production and underlying metrics all suggest continued progression

What sort of proof could there be? What sort of proof would you have that 2018-19 isn't going to be the best season of his career?

Pedigree: His dad put up a ppg season in his 2nd season in the NHL as a 21 year old.... He did that on a team where he led in goal scoring by 8 and pts by 7. That turned out to be his 3rd best season both goal scoring and point wise in his 18 year career.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

The Flames success this season did involve multiple career-best seasons by an array of players at every position.

I think the *most likely" thing to happen this coming season is that Giordano takes a noticeable step back from his all-time best season, Lindholm returns closer to his career average numbers, and both Talbot and Rittich perform pretty similar to the last season or two.

If that's what happens, I think the Flames and Tkachuk will struggle to put up the same numbers they did this season.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I agree with your sentiment somewhat, but a reason they can say goodbye to these players is they keep drafting Timo Meiers', Kevin Lebancs and Tomas Hertls.

Between 2006 and 2016:

Sharks: 6800 man games
Flames: 4867 man games

When you're drafting like that you can afford to both lose players as well as trade for better ones.

San Jose has a geographic advantage towards signing free agents but they also do a much better job of grabbing players from the draft.

Since Sutter was fired in 2011, the Flames have drafted 18 players who have played at least one game for the team (14 have played at least 20). Those 18 players have collectively played 2,090 games for the Flames and scored 1,219 points.

Since Treliving became the Flames' GM, the Flames have drafted 7 players who have played at least one game for the team (all 7 have played at least 20). Those 7 players have collectively played 768 games for the Flames and scored 338 points.

----------

Since the 2011 draft, the Sharks have drafted 12 players who have played at least one game for the team (9 have played at least 20). Those 12 players have collectively played 1,667 games for the Sharks and scored 707 points.

Since 2014, San Jose has drafted 5 players who have played at least one game for the team (only 2 have played at least 20). Those 5 players have collectively played 442 games for the Sharks and scored 227 points.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

What sort of proof could there be? What sort of proof would you have that 2018-19 isn't going to be the best season of his career?

Pedigree: His dad put up a ppg season in his 2nd season in the NHL as a 21 year old.... He did that on a team where he led in goal scoring by 8 and pts by 7. That turned out to be his 3rd best season both goal scoring and point wise in his 18 year career.

Sure but it's not like Matthew "peaking" means the rest of his years are gonna be terrible by comparison. Keith scored 81 points in 1994 and proceeded to hover around a point-per-game until 2007.

Even if Matthew only surpasses 77 points a couple times in his career, I don't think it's anywhere near unreasonable to suggest he hovers around 65-75 consistently (with a couple 80+ years) until he's 31 or 32. And that suggests he's done improving, which I don't think he is. I see 50+ goals in a season as a possibility.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Sure but it's not like Matthew "peaking" means the rest of his years are gonna be terrible by comparison. Keith scored 81 points in 1994 and proceeded to hover around a point-per-game until 2007.

Even if Matthew only surpasses 77 points a couple times in his career, I don't think it's anywhere near unreasonable to suggest he hovers around 65-75 consistently (with a couple 80+ years) until he's 31 or 32. And that suggests he's done improving, which I don't think he is. I see 50+ goals in a season as a possibility.

I honestly don't.

I can't think of a player as slow as Tkachuk who has ever scored 50 goals. Certainly not in the last 30 years.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I honestly don't.

I can't think of a player as slow as Tkachuk who has ever scored 50 goals. Certainly not in the last 30 years.

What about his dad?

[Geeoff]

Tkachuk has never struck me as slow. Seems to have pretty average NHL speed to me. ??

[Rando]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

I honestly don't.

I can't think of a player as slow as Tkachuk who has ever scored 50 goals. Certainly not in the last 30 years.

John LaClair skated in mud, after eating a turkey dinner.

You're vastly overstating Tkachuk's skating deficiency.

[Mitt31]

Make him sign 5 x 7 tre

Sit him if he wants 9-10

Keep a great core together

We want a cup and a dynasty

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by getbak

Since Sutter was fired in 2011, the Flames have drafted 18 players who have played at least one game for the team (14 have played at least 20). Those 18 players have collectively played 2,090 games for the Flames and scored 1,219 points.

Since Treliving became the Flames' GM, the Flames have drafted 7 players who have played at least one game for the team (all 7 have played at least 20). Those 7 players have collectively played 768 games for the Flames and scored 338 points.

----------

Since the 2011 draft, the Sharks have drafted 12 players who have played at least one game for the team (9 have played at least 20). Those 12 players have collectively played 1,667 games for the Sharks and scored 707 points.

Since 2014, San Jose has drafted 5 players who have played at least one game for the team (only 2 have played at least 20). Those 5 players have collectively played 442 games for the Sharks and scored 227 points.

Great post.

It illustrates the time lag between drafting and organizational depth, and the core cycles a team runs through. Drafting a couple of star players can hold you in contention for 10 years, as was the case with Couture and Pavelski, and Marleau and Vlasic before that.

I think it also illustrates how a single player can impact both a draft and a team. Tkachuk IMO is a superstar player, and his 174 career points represent more than half of the total point output from those draft years. Where would this team be without him, even with max potential for valimaki, andersson etc?

I will add though that this doesn't include the prospects shipped out for Karlsson and Hoffman. While they may not have played a game, they were integral organizational assets.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

Tkachuk has never struck me as slow. Seems to have pretty average NHL speed to me. ??

He was slow in season 1 and maybe part of that was fitness.

seems fine to me now.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

The Flames success this season did involve multiple career-best seasons by an array of players at every position.

I think the *most likely" thing to happen this coming season is that Giordano takes a noticeable step back from his all-time best season, Lindholm returns closer to his career average numbers, and both Talbot and Rittich perform pretty similar to the last season or two.

Why “most likely”? I expect most of the Flames forwards to record lower totals this year, but don’t see why we should anticipate any steep drop offs. With the chemistry Lindholm showed on the first line; with his level of skill I see him much more likely to hit +65 points this year than to return to -50. It’s reasonable to see a slide back for Giordano, but there is nothing to think it will be especially significant.

If that's what happens, I think the Flames and Tkachuk will struggle to put up the same numbers they did this season.

With the expected moderate regressions mentioned above, and also with some improvements from likely sources such as Hanifin, Andersson, Mangiapane and Dube (I think Monahan is a good bet to score 40 goals), I think it is reasonable to expect the Flames to score in range of 265 goals. That would still be top-ten in the NHL, and with average goaltending should again have them in the conversation for the Division title. Unless he misses time, I can’t imagine that Tkachuk will suffer much of a reduction in his own production.


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[GreenLantern2814]

Just want to point out that Rittich has nine more starts and 21 more wins than Kiprusoff did by age 26.

It doesn't mean anything, but lots of goalies break out in their mid late 20s, and Dave has shown a lot of promise.

It's also entirely possible that we get a resurgence from Talbot. The goaltending may not be elite yet, but it's in better shape than any year since the first Hiller/Ramo carousel.