CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

Proof Positive Lego Man is a host....!

Spoiler!

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I am a passenger, if I am not let me forever be known on CP as a lying dirty Canuck fan!

Isn't that like saying you will eat your own pubes?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Except the way you are playing isn't a threat to the hosts, you're playing under the radar.

Not at all, I can't be on here 24/7 but I am on here when I can be. We have lost two passengers and look who has been driving the boat. I may be wrong on you being a host but it is too dangerous to take that chance given how you played and won last time. I will go with my initial instincts this time.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Isn't that like saying you will eat your own pubes?

Worse imo. I would rather eat my pubes than be a Nucks fan.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Not at all, I can't be on here 24/7 but I am on here when I can be. We have lost two passengers and look who has been driving the boat. I may be wrong on you being a host but it is too dangerous to take that chance given how you played and won last time. I will go with my initial instincts this time.

I'm not saying you have to be here 24/7. Other than asking a bunch of questions we already had answered what exactly have you done to help find scum? I went through your whole post history and I really can't find anything that looks like hunting for the hosts.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

No I am not, I am pointing out the obvious here. I want us to succeed in weeding out the scum and for me that points to who is controlling the game here. I am a passenger, if I am not let me forever be known on CP as a lying dirty Canuck fan!

I'm pretty sure tox clause stuff is specifically against the rules

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm not saying you have to be here 24/7. Other than asking a bunch of questions we already had answered what exactly have you done to help find scum? I went through your whole post history and I really can't find anything that looks like hunting for the hosts.

You can go through anyone's posts and find the same thing. It is a crap shoot at this stage. Every poster is different you and you can sit around all day and analyze the hell out of it and not get anywhere. You were sure GS was scum, how did that turn out? I voted for her as well because maybe you were on the level and worse case we take the spore out of play for a night. Unless Oling is lying but I think he is town, again more gut feeling than any evidence.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I'm pretty sure tox clause stuff is specifically against the rules

Was that against the rules? If so, my bad.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You can go through anyone's posts and find the same thing. It is a crap shoot at this stage. Every poster is different you and you can sit around all day and analyze the hell out of it and not get anywhere. You were sure GS was scum, how did that turn out? I voted for her as well because maybe you were on the level and worse case we take the spore out of play for a night. Unless Oling is lying but I think he is town, again more gut feeling than any evidence.

I disagree, some posters have been actively trying to find hosts by looking at posts, voting habit, weird behaviour. You say you can analyse the hell out of it and get nowhere, which is true but the whole point of the game is to analyse other posters. So far you have done almost nothing at all, so the question is at what point are you going to contribute instead of riding coat tails?

And I was sure Girly was infected with a chance at being a host. Yes I was wrong but I have no one to blame because I came up with it on my own, where as you get to blame other people because you just went along with their argument.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I disagree, some posters have been actively trying to find hosts by looking at posts, voting habit, weird behaviour. You say you can analyse the hell out of it and get nowhere, which is true but the whole point of the game is to analyse other posters. So far you have done almost nothing at all, so the question is at what point are you going to contribute instead of riding coat tails?

And I was sure Girly was infected with a chance at being a host. Yes I was wrong but I have no one to blame because I came up with it on my own, where as you get to blame other people because you just went along with their argument.

I have done nothing at all except sniff you out at the beginning of the game. Yes, you have no one to blame, you led a bunch of posters down the path to lynching two passengers. Yes, I put the blame on you because it fits and you have been steering the ship. I have asked questions, theorized on posters, tried to work to the benefit of the passengers. You obviously cannot claim the same so you throw these smoke screen posts out. Not buying it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I have done nothing at all except sniff you out at the beginning of the game. Yes, you have no one to blame, you led a bunch of posters down the path to lynching two passengers. Yes, I put the blame on you because it fits and you have been steering the ship. I have asked questions, theorized on posters, tried to work to the benefit of the passengers. You obviously cannot claim the same so you throw these smoke screen posts out. Not buying it.

Well if all you've done is sniff me out, you're going to be disappointed.

Feel free to go back and give examples of all the scummy things I have done. Build your case against me so you can convince people I'm actually a host, please quote my posts and tell me why you think it's host like and if there is something you want me to address let me know.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote results:

activeStick vote:


GirlSports vote:


I think it's less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes. If that is true then you can take out squiggs, bizaro, Timbo, devo, and ECF.

The leaves Oling, GGG, diss, Lego Man, Peanut as people who voted for 1 of the passengers.

Oling and GGG have voted activeStick and Timbo - I doubt they are both hosts, as I can't see them wanting to vote the same both times.

Diss voted me and Girly - Voting for me in round 1 is kind of a throwaway, as I wasn't really in play for votes. The reasoning was I was trying to put attention on everything but me.

Lego Man voted Girly both times - It is odd that after his first vote against her on Day 1, he comes back on Day 2 and says he thinks she is town but still votes for her anyway.

Peanut voted ECF and Girly - Randomly votes ECF on day 1 because he is a middle of the pack poster. She seems confused a lot of the time and seems to always have a reason for not being around much. Could she be a host?

Then we have people who haven't voted for any of the people who were lynched. Puxlut (town), Seb, Party Elephant, mrkajz.

Seb voted for Girly and no one - I can't see his posting style being a host, but that's really the only reason I think he could be a passenger. It's tough to go back and say that any of his posts implicate him on anything.

Party Elephant voted Girly and me - Had the snap vote on GGG, then switches to Girly "because of the vote count". At the time he voted Girly he had 2 votes on himself, there were 2 on activeStick, and 2 on Girly (he was the 3rd).

Mrkajz voted Girly and Timbo - Voted for Party Elephant because he thought he was a lurker, and pulls the vote because he didn't notice PE was in NZ and changes to Girly. Votes for Timbo because he didn't like the way the activeStick voting went. He wants us to focus on the first vote, says it a few times. I feel like he piggybacks on peoples theories/logic a lot rather than coming up with his own. Is it a safety valve for him later, so he can say he just went along with so-and so?

Posts like this are exactly why I'm suspicious of you. You just declare that a host wouldn't vote the way you voted, therefore it must be one of the people you list. Are we just supposed to gloss over the logic that got you there? It's the way you write it, like it should be a certainty to all of us that no host would vote that way, that further leads me to believe you are a host.

vote hockeyguy15

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Posts like this are exactly why I'm suspicious of you. You just declare that a host wouldn't vote the way you voted, therefore it must be one of the people you list. Are we just supposed to gloss over the logic that got you there? It's the way you write it, like it should be a certainty to all of us that no host would vote that way, that further leads me to believe you are a host.

vote hockeyguy15

I said I think it's less likely they would be part of both lynches, not impossible.

[mrkajz44]

The HG angle is interesting. I checked out the post count and HG has 162, with second place being just under 100; so HG has ~60% more posts than the second most active poster. Hard to argue that HG is not steering the ship, or at the very least, is key in the direction of the conversation each day.

He was definitely the leader on the Girly lynch. Here are a few of his first posts after the spore reveal that were directed at Girly.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Because you've clearly turned, so we know that you will be dead after you're investigated. After that if we have nothing else to go on they can look at Oling.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Why did it take so long for you to say I didn't turn. After Oling said he gave you the spore you made a whole post without mentioning you didn't turn.

Doesn't seem very likely. First words out of my mouth would be that I didn't turn.

He essentially decided immediately that Girly turned because her first post was not "I did not turn". I'm not saying that was terrible logic at the time, but as the day wore on and more logical discussions were made, HG did not back down and may have been the beginning of the end for Girly.

It just seems like HG likes to be the driver, makes decisions somewhat quickly and is hard to convince otherwise. Now the question is: would that be scum behaviour, or would that just be a strong town personality? I would think just strong town, but I'm starting to see the other side of the argument.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

You explained how yourself, by including me in the "quietly lynched GirlySports" category. As for your personal attack, what would be "cowardly and selfish" is playing the game in a way that I believe would be deterimental to the town just to avoid heat.

It's not an attack, calling it cowardly and selfish at least implied that it had some merit seems like it's just poor strategy.

You have zero contribution thus far and yet somehow you are middle of the pack in posts so you aren't exactly staying silent.

[bizaro86]

I've been thinking through the thread, and thought I'd share my most recent thoughts in the form of a top 3/bottom three "likely to be scum" list. No particular order.

Least Likely to be scum/most town (reason in brackets)
bizaro86 (I can see my role pm)
puxslut (no counter-claim yet means she is almost certainly town)
sebc (playing a strategy that he wouldn't play if he was scum)

Most likely to be scum (reason in brackets)
Timbo (Change in posting style from previous game.) A timbo lynch also has the potential to out mrkajz as someone who has had a staged argument with him, which is a potential benefit
Dissentowner (Change in posting style from previous game, appears more flustered than I would expect when voted for, resorted to tox clause gaming)
LegoMan (Flying under the radar again, did it last game with a random number generator shtick, this game has a very different posting style, but the same result)

I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Ideally, for me, we would discuss the vote for a couple days and narrow it down to 3 people. Get 5 votes on each and let Puxlut decide the 6th and lynching vote at the deadline.

Might scare the scum letting a confirmed townie have the final say, get them more involved.

Unless none of the three are scum. I have been saying throught the course of the game that late, untelegraphed lynches would benefit the town - but limiting the possible lynches to three early reduces the benefit.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by SebC

Unless none of the three are scum. I have been saying throught the course of the game that late, untelegraphed lynches would benefit the town - but limiting the possible lynches to three early reduces the benefit.

If our top 3 suspects aren't scum we're likely not lynching one anyways. This late untelegraphed vote would just allow the hosts and future turned to coordinate and not the town...it's to their advantage more than ours, in my opinion.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

He essentially decided immediately that Girly turned because her first post was not "I did not turn". I'm not saying that was terrible logic at the time, but as the day wore on and more logical discussions were made, HG did not back down and may have been the beginning of the end for Girly.

It just seems like HG likes to be the driver, makes decisions somewhat quickly and is hard to convince otherwise. Now the question is: would that be scum behaviour, or would that just be a strong town personality? I would think just strong town, but I'm starting to see the other side of the argument.

That's correct, I didn't think her reaction was consistent with someone who wasn't infected.

For the record I don't have to be the driver, but in this game I feel like there are too many passengers (activity wise) so I take it upon myself to try and push the conversation hoping people get involved.

I was wrong with my reading of Girly, but that isn't going to stop me from continuing to look for hosts. If being active and trying to push people to actively look for hosts gets me lynched then so be it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I've been thinking through the thread, and thought I'd share my most recent thoughts in the form of a top 3/bottom three "likely to be scum" list. No particular order.

Least Likely to be scum/most town (reason in brackets)
bizaro86 (I can see my role pm)
puxslut (no counter-claim yet means she is almost certainly town)
sebc (playing a strategy that he wouldn't play if he was scum)

Most likely to be scum (reason in brackets)
Timbo (Change in posting style from previous game.) A timbo lynch also has the potential to out mrkajz as someone who has had a staged argument with him, which is a potential benefit
Dissentowner (Change in posting style from previous game, appears more flustered than I would expect when voted for, resorted to tox clause gaming)
LegoMan (Flying under the radar again, did it last game with a random number generator shtick, this game has a very different posting style, but the same result)

I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.

If anyone gets the spore tonight they should send it to Oling rather than Puxlut. If someone gets the spore tonight it means they were sent the spore last night and weren't infected, which means Girly didn't have the spore and that Oling was lying. I doubt that's the case, but on the off chance it happens sending it to Oling would be better than wasting our 1 free pass to Puxlut. So really we don't need to figure this out today as night 4 should be the earliest chance a non-infected passenger has to pass the spore.