Russia invades Ukraine

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Not arguing for or against this response, but wouldn't a direct attack on Russian soil inevitably lead to escalation and ultimately NATO involvement?

Depends on what we're talking about here. It could go anywhere from a retaliation against a target in Ukraine with conventional weapons. Right up to the Apocalypse.

I mean its not as if the Russian's aren't doing indiscriminate attacks against the civilian populations.

At this point, beyond sending weapons, NATO isn't going to do anything else. They're not going to send troops in, they're not going to send in volunteer planes and pilots.

They're pretty content with feeding the meat grinder with fresh equipment to see if they can break Putin's will.

[IliketoPuck]

Agreed Cap'n.

So NATO takes the leash off some of the weapons types it as of yet hasn't sent in response.

[CroFlames]

I'll LOL if WWIII starts in Poland.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I'll LOL if WWIII starts in Poland.

Seriously? Don’t even joke about that.

[GGG]

I think a Poland response on Russian held positions in the Ukraine proper / recently annexed territory would be reasonable compromise to indicate this won’t be tolerated but also an attempt to not escalate..

A large air incursion targeting locations that will help Ukraine going forward but not attacking Russia directly.

[dammage79]

An avalanche can begin with a snowflake. Alls I know is, some Russian folk better pucker up and start kissing some behind or they're gonna get a firm how do you do from Nato.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1592528628931506179

[driveway]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think a Poland response on Russian held positions in the Ukraine proper / recently annexed territory would be reasonable compromise to indicate this won’t be tolerated but also an attempt to not escalate..

A large air incursion targeting locations that will help Ukraine going forward but not attacking Russia directly.

Were I in the room and, obviously, I should be, this would be the type of response I'd advocate for from the Poles.

Also, I'd likely advocate pointing the strike at infrastructure - like a staging location or ammunition stockpile - and provide enough warning that the Russians can remove people. It's a response, but clearly not an escalation.

[FlamesAddiction]

I loved Zelensky's cheekiness today of addressing the "G19". And Lavrov's audacity of accusing Ukraine of prolonging the war by fighting back. Like how dare they!

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

But what is an appropriate response?

Knowing that Poland lobbing round into Kaliningrad or Belarus could light a monster mother####ing fire.

The response needs to be measured and well thought out.

Increase of NATO reaction forces in Baltics, along the Polish-Russian and Polish Belarussian borders, possible training exercises in the areas to aggravate Russian forces more, and increase in the types of arms provided to Ukraine like ATACMS/fighter jets.

Russia has been pulling forces off NATO borders for troops to fight in Ukraine and there are minimal Russian troops along the Baltics and Poland atm. Despite what Russian internal propaganda claims, Russian leadership knows NATO is not an offensive threat. Substantially increase NATO forces in the area would change that perception and fix Russian force positions and deprive Russia using those forces in Ukraine to attack more civilians.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by opendoor

It's also possible it was an air defense missile. The debris does bear some resemblance to an S-300:

Though Russia has used those for ground attacks as well. So even if it was an S-300, that doesn't mean it wasn't them (though it would have had to come from Belarus to reach Poland). And either way, when you're lobbing missiles within kilometers of a NATO nation, you're responsible for whatever happens.

This looks more plausible with Biden saying it was "unlikely" that the missile originated from Russia:

President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.

Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.

“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was suggesting that the missile hadn’t been fired by Russia at all. Ukraine still maintains stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summ...092f5b3aec21c8

Though if that's correct, it doesn't necessarily rule out the possibility of it coming from Belarus.

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by opendoor

This looks more plausible with Biden saying it was "unlikely" that the missile originated from Russia:


https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summ...092f5b3aec21c8

Though if that's correct, it doesn't necessarily rule out the possibility of it coming from Belarus.

Or a false flag from a rogue Ukrainian general hoping to pull nato in

[Firebot]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1592675626812854272

Article 4 being considered and likely to be invoked by Poland.

As for not wanting to escalate, Putin is lobbying hundreds of missiles with several going over NATO counties and just hit what seems to be a deliberate targetting of Polish - Ukraine power lines. Either it was deliberate, or their suspected target of a Ukrainian thermal plant 40km away shows gross incompetence. And they were so grossly incompetent they even did it twice.

Either case, Poland and NATO must act as NATO civilians on NATO soil were just killed as a result of a missile attack.

Its already escalated. This was not one missile but two missiles that hit NATO soil. This is not being taken lightly.

And Biden being deliberately vague about the missiles not coming from Russia is on purpose. The US knows exactly where it came from.

I think we could see a no fly zone over Belarus or some type of similar proxy action.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by jeffman

Or a false flag from a rogue Ukrainian general hoping to pull nato in

Given how much surveillance is going on along that border, that seems about the least likely option. If it was a short-range missile, the only really plausible scenarios would be a missile from Belarus that didn't make it to Lviv, or perhaps an air defense missile protecting Lviv that malfunctioned.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

What is the appropriate NATO response to this?

Destroy the Black Sea fleet? Destroy known missile sites in Russia proper?

Perhaps destroy every square inch of the Crimea bridge (road and rail)?

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by Firebot

https://twitter.com/user/status/1592675626812854272

Article 4 being considered and likely to be invoked by Poland.

As for not wanting to escalate, Putin is lobbying hundreds of missiles with several going over NATO counties and just hit what seems to be a deliberate targetting of Polish - Ukraine power lines. Either it was deliberate, or their suspected target of a Ukrainian thermal plant 40km away shows gross incompetence. And they were so grossly incompetent they even did it twice.

Either case, Poland and NATO must act as NATO civilians on NATO soil were just killed as a result of a missile attack.

Its already escalated. This was not one missile but two missiles that hit NATO soil. This is not being taken lightly.

And Biden being deliberately vague about the missiles not coming from Russia is on purpose. The US knows exactly where it came from.

I think we could see a no fly zone over Belarus or some type of similar proxy action.

I think the Biden comments will calm it down? Unless of course there is absolute proof that the Russian fired on Poland with intention, but I don't think they are that interested in that kind of a challenge to NATO? It's one thing to say stuff and another to do stuff.

[opendoor]

Article 4 isn't all that noteworthy on its own. It was already invoked by 8 countries (including Poland) in February, and Turkey has invoked it 4 times in the last decade. It just officially calls for consultation among NATO countries when the security of a nation is potentially under threat.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Yikes

I think the Biden comments will calm it down? Unless of course there is absolute proof that the Russian fired on Poland with intention, but I don't think they are that interested in that kind of a challenge to NATO? It's one thing to say stuff and another to do stuff.

I think you have to react even if it appears accidental, if the missle was shot by Russia or a Proxy there needs to be some action. Actions need to have natural consequences otherwise more accidents will continue to happen.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think you have to react even if it appears accidental, if the missle was shot by Russia or a Proxy there needs to be some action. Actions need to have natural consequences otherwise more accidents will continue to happen.

I don't know, over 200 NATO citizens were killed when MH17 was shot down by Russia/Russian-backed separatists and there was no military response from NATO.

I don't think it's anyone's interest for a NATO nation to respond militarily. If the missile did originate from Russian forces and they're unwilling to own up to it, then NATO should expand the types of weapons they're supplying Ukraine by giving them longer-range missiles and better air defenses. That helps Ukraine achieve their objectives without NATO directly engaging.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know, over 200 NATO citizens were killed when MH17 was shot down by Russia/Russian-backed separatists and there was no military response from NATO.

I don't think it's anyone's interest for a NATO nation to respond militarily. If the missile did originate from Russian forces and they're unwilling to own up to it, then NATO should expand the types of weapons they're supplying Ukraine by giving them longer-range missiles and better air defenses. That helps Ukraine achieve their objectives without NATO directly engaging.

That is still a direct response to Russia actions and I think a reasonable one as well.