The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[868904]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I also find it rage inducing that the Rangers win their division and have 96 wins with a run differential of +14. Also, Baltimore is tied with us in the standings but only have a run differential of +21. We have a run differential of +91 - anyone else with a run differential of +90 or greater has already clinched their division. Damn AL East.

The only rage that causes me is at the Jays and their "feast or famine" offense. It doesn't mean the Jays are a better team. It simply means that this team is very good at tacking on extra runs when they are way ahead already, usually at the expense of low leverage relief pitchers.

The problem is they can't seem to add runs when they are in a close game when the pressure is on and facing good pitchers.

They get all proud of themselves when they beat up a team 10-0, but then proceed to lose the next two games 1-0.

Classic Toronto sports team choke mentality.

[GirlySports]

Rangers are the opposite. When their starting pitchers go bad, they go really bad and the game gets out of hand by the 5th.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by 868904

The only rage that causes me is at the Jays and their "feast or famine" offense. It doesn't mean the Jays are a better team. It simply means that this team is very good at tacking on extra runs when they are way ahead already, usually at the expense of low leverage relief pitchers.

The problem is they can't seem to add runs when they are in a close game when the pressure is on and facing good pitchers.

They get all proud of themselves when they beat up a team 10-0, but then proceed to lose the next two games 1-0.

Classic Toronto sports team choke mentality.

It definitely means they are a better team. You just created a narrative to defend it with exaggerated examples. It's the same way that Ranger fans defend their ridiculous record in one run games (36-11) because they have a good bullpen, ignoring the fact that there's better bullpens out there with significantly worse one run game records.

If Texas is allegedly so good at just adding on runs in close games, why don't they just do it at the start of every game too and win even more? If they had some innate ability to do so, why are they waiting until the end of close games to do it?

[mrkajz44]

Yup - Texas is simply just incredibly lucky this year. Based on their run differential, they should have won around 81 games or so (depending on your model), instead they'll win 95+.

The rhetoric that a good bullpen makes your team better in one run games does not really hold up well under statistical analysis. Yes, there is some coloration, but it is fairly weak.

Honestly, I think the Jays are mostly running into poor luck rather than being a "choking" team. That's why I'm hopeful for the playoffs. Luck can swing wildly in short series, so if the Jays make it past the WC, I think they have a legit shot of going all the way. That's just how baseball is - the best team usually doesn't win the World Series, it's the team that gets "hot" (read: more lucky) at the right time.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Yup - Texas is simply just incredibly lucky this year. Based on their run differential, they should have won around 81 games or so (depending on your model), instead they'll win 95+.

The rhetoric that a good bullpen makes your team better in one run games does not really hold up well under statistical analysis. Yes, there is some coloration, but it is fairly weak.

Honestly, I think the Jays are mostly running into poor luck rather than being a "choking" team. That's why I'm hopeful for the playoffs. Luck can swing wildly in short series, so if the Jays make it past the WC, I think they have a legit shot of going all the way. That's just how baseball is - the best team usually doesn't win the World Series, it's the team that gets "hot" (read: more lucky) at the right time.

My biggest fear though is that right now by the eye test the Jays haven't been getting unlucky the past couple weeks. They are still getting a good amount of guys on base which helps, but anytime there's a chance to score it seems like it's a strikeout or a weak grounder. That could just be all anecdotal, but it doesn't feel like they're hitting rockets right at guys and are prime to break out when those balls start missing gloves.

At the end of the day though, those opportunities to score are still there every game and that's more than half the battle.

[GirlySports]

Dan Shulman on the Jonah Keri podcast.

http://www.jonahkeri.com/episodes/dan-shulman-2/

[flames_fan_down_under]

Please. Please for the love of god win. Please.

[Machiavelli]

Delayed?

[Inferno]

Yep

[chockfullofgoodness]

Of course Detroit puts up three (so far) in the top of the first.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Ortiz drives one in to make it 1-0 in the 1st.

[Machiavelli]

Seems like the Jays never get runs like that

[Machiavelli]

Sigh....gonna be into the bp early

[chockfullofgoodness]

Sox are going to be into the Jays bullpen by the third inning at this rate.

[Machiavelli]

Pat's Platitudes

[JayP]

Another game that feels over already. Red Sox get RBIs with two outs. The Jays simply don't. Another weakly hit ball with runners in scoring position.

Their only hope is a long delay and Porcello taking a seat. Except then the Sox get to tee off on our thin bullpen.

[chockfullofgoodness]

Donaldson just hasn't been himself for the last 6 weeks or so.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by chockfullofgoodness

Donaldson just hasn't been himself for the last 6 weeks or so.

I believe his hip is giving him some grief.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

That looks way, way safe.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Wow, one went the Jays way. I am in shock.