Russia invades Ukraine

[Francis's Hairpiece]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591477593202692096

This one really got me on a number of levels. Beautiful stuff.

Wow. That WRECKED me. Beautiful moment.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

i'd be pretty surprised if they brought their himars that close to the front. The big benefit of them is that they can largely be out of range for russian artillery, and where they're not they can move away before any return fire happens. But to hit any part of crimea they'd have to be basically right at the river which would be a huge gamble for little benefit.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591557930067038208

They have already started.

It's also a massive benefit as Chaplynka is where Russia has most of their helicopters based out of for the Kherson front (well after eventually leaving the Chornobaivk airport and its 40+ attacks).

Ukraine had yet to lose a single HIMARS and they are highly mobile and able to be long gone before Russia can determine where the attack came from.

[DFO]

It’s a shame Ukraine can’t use the longer range ATACMS missiles and really put a dent in the Russian forces.

[Firebot]

Of particular interest along with these new HIMARS attacks is this new surprise offensive that just started. Ukraine wasn't about to sit on its laurels with Kherson won.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591423718060064768

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591471247619411968

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591429867991597058

Russia started reinforcing this peninsula in recent weeks as a Grad MLRS launching platform. Taking this peninsula, as daring and bold as this amphibious attack may be, would cause Russia to be flanked in a place it was not expecting.

This is a tremendous and bold plan, and extremely rewarding if successful. The objective appears to be Crimea proper, and even if it's not, Russia has no choice but to start reinforcing this area again (which may reopen new surprise offensives such as the Kharkiv offensive that was possible a few months ago). It's a game of wack a mole.

[activeStick]

Sounds like the military and the government are divided on ending the war in Ukraine. Milley and the military are the ones supporting talks with Russia while it appears the US government isn't. Disappointing to hear.

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/11/polit...ate/index.html

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591251395013115904

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Of particular interest along with these new HIMARS attacks is this new surprise offensive that just started. Ukraine wasn't about to sit on its laurels with Kherson won.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591423718060064768

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591471247619411968

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591429867991597058

Russia started reinforcing this peninsula in recent weeks as a Grad MLRS launching platform. Taking this peninsula, as daring and bold as this amphibious attack may be, would cause Russia to be flanked in a place it was not expecting.

This is a tremendous and bold plan, and extremely rewarding if successful. The objective appears to be Crimea proper, and even if it's not, Russia has no choice but to start reinforcing this area again (which may reopen new surprise offensives such as the Kharkiv offensive that was possible a few months ago). It's a game of wack a mole.

This is effin' brilliant, theres only one road onto the peninsula and it is visible all the way from Kherson, the Ukraines can wholly cut off the Russians were as they can happily resupply by boat, the terrain looks marshy and not much use to armour, this is next level strategy

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

They have already started.

It's also a massive benefit as Chaplynka is where Russia has most of their helicopters based out of for the Kherson front (well after eventually leaving the Chornobaivk airport and its 40+ attacks).

Ukraine had yet to lose a single HIMARS and they are highly mobile and able to be long gone before Russia can determine where the attack came from.

Chaplynka is only 50km from the Dnipro though, so they can hit it from 20km back of the river, which is relatively safe. That's a lot different than hitting Armiansk, which would require the units to launch from right at the river (and even then they might not make it).

They haven't lost any HIMARS yet because they've been extremely careful with them, staying well behind the front where they can't really be targeted given their mobility. If they're within sight of Russian forces, that's a whole different matter.

I'd be more interested to know how far they need to get to hit the Crimea -> Melitopol railway. That's basically the only functioning link from Crimea to Russia right now. I think they're still about 100km from it, but if they can get within striking range they could seriously hamper Russia's ability to supply Crimea and the whole southern front.

[afc wimbledon]

my guess is the Russians that withdrew from Kherson and the left bank are massively under resourced and have lost most of their armour in the retreat, the Ukrainians are hoping they can just keep the pressure on so the whole front will collapse back into the Crimea

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Sounds like the military and the government are divided on ending the war in Ukraine. Milley and the military are the ones supporting talks with Russia while it appears the US government isn't. Disappointing to hear.

“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/11/polit...ate/index.html

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591251395013115904

Military should NOT be dipping their toes onto diplomacy.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Never thought that a guy like Putin would ever negotiate. Especially with the US, when they have a losing hand.

Not sure exactly what that group of military leaders see, considering all the other situations which the Russian military invaded

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Military should NOT be dipping their toes onto diplomacy.

Agreed. Two separate missions. I think the Americans are playing this very smart. Give advanced weapon systems, training, and intelligence to the Ukrainians and let they thin out the Russian military to the point they won't be able to try another invasion of a sovereign nation again for the next 20-30 years, when they can rebuild their military machine. The Russians have lost so much armor and weapons they are really back to having a defensive force and now have to be concerned about being able to handle internal security concerns, like breakaway republics of heir own.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591732350966431744

[Fuzz]

Triple wrap what is important to you!

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Triple wrap what is important to you!

That's what I tell my boys but they never listen 'she swore she was on the pill!!!'

[Itse]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

Never thought that a guy like Putin would ever negotiate. Especially with the US, when they have a losing hand.

Not sure exactly what that group of military leaders see, considering all the other situations which the Russian military invaded

For the record, I'm not sure if negotiations are in any way a realistic or reasonable option, but I do see the logic.

This war is not going to be over soon with the way Russia is willing to throw people into the grinder, it has a lot of potential to get a lot uglier, there is a risk of escalation, and a purely military victory for Ukraine is impossible because you can't push the Russians further than their own border, and that's not enough to force them to stop.

I'm not saying that to suggest Ukraine should negotiate. It's after all easy for military staff to look at the situation from another continent and suggest that Ukraine should just give up their people and land.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Itse

For the record, I'm not sure if negotiations are in any way a realistic or reasonable option, but I do see the logic.

This war is not going to be over soon with the way Russia is willing to throw people into the grinder, it has a lot of potential to get a lot uglier, there is a risk of escalation, and a purely military victory for Ukraine is impossible because you can't push the Russians further than their own border, and that's not enough to force them to stop.

I'm not saying that to suggest Ukraine should negotiate. It's after all easy for military staff to look at the situation from another continent and suggest that Ukraine should just give up their people and land.

I agree with your take. Eventually, there is going to have to be some kind of negotiated diplomatic settlement. The only other option is to force Russia into an unconditional surrender and forced de-militarization. The second option does not seem at all possible.

I'll leave it up to people smarter than me to figure out where the sweet spot is to force Russia's hand and get the most favourable terms for Ukraine. I don't think we are there yet, but there are factors for both Ukraine and Russia that are on timers.

If the plan is to try and run down the clock and hope that Russia's economy, political landscape, and internal security collapses, this could go on for a whole generation.

[CroFlames]

If Putin concedes defeat, he can still save face at home to an extent by claiming they were defeated by the combined might of all of NATO.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If Putin concedes defeat, he can still save face at home to an extent by claiming they were defeated by the combined might of all of NATO.

Considering no NATO boots on the ground or aircraft in the sky he would only be admitting the military he built sucks.

[bob-loblaw]

You can’t negotiate with Putin for a permanent stop to the war. He’ll just use any break in fighting to retool his military and try invade again. However, with the amount of corruption there that could take some time.

Plus, after all this I don’t see Ukraine wanting to capitulate on anything - EU, future NATO, reparations, etc.

The entire world community would almost have to treat them like Germany or Japan after WW2 in order for me to trust any permanent truce, and I don’t see any Russians going for that. I don’t think trying to isolate them like Iran would even work.

[Fuzz]

They should invite Putin for a peace signing, then arrest him for war crimes.

Free boat!