[Trade] Sens trade Lazar and Kostka to the Flames for a 2nd + Jokipakka

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

My extreme views or yours?

The reason teams actually keep their picks despite the odds is that they trust their scouting department to find players like Brodie and Gaudreau once in a while. It's not as simple as saying that "ANY useful NHL player is a good use of a 2nd round pick."

Yours was extreme, and I am sure you're well aware of that.

Trading a 2nd once, to get a player that you think fills a need is not even remotely close to suggesting you should do it all the time.

Every team ends up keeping, and drafting with, the vast majority of their picks. A few will work out.

Oil Stain tried to set a ridiculous bar on Lazar, one that can't be justified by the facts.

I posted a valid response to him, based on facts.

YOu took my post to the extreme, which is simply brutal logic.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah, exactly.

The Flames obviously believe that Lazar has top 9 potential. If they thought he was only going to be bench filler or a tweener, no way do they give up a 2nd for him. Because a player is just good enough to get 4th line ice-time isn't generally worth a 2nd round pick even if most never get that far.

I think right now, this trade has about an even chance of working out great, bombing or just being OK. Basically, both sides have valid concerns about the assets involved.

I think for this trade to be a win though, Lazar has to be a top 9 forward. Either a top 6, or above-average 3rd liner. Not next season, but within the next 3 seasons.

There's no question they like Lazar very much. It's not a trade based on the idea that the pick is worth very little so why not. Hopefully it's based just as much on scouting his recent play as it is on old draft day notes.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah, exactly.

The Flames obviously believe that Lazar has top 9 potential. If they thought he was only going to be bench filler or a tweener, no way do they give up a 2nd for him. Because a player is just good enough to get 4th line ice-time isn't generally worth a 2nd round pick even if most never get that far.

I think right now, this trade has about an even chance of working out great, bombing or just being OK. Basically, both sides have valid concerns about the assets involved.

I think for this trade to be a win though, Lazar has to be a top 9 forward. Either a top 6, or above-average 3rd liner. Not next season, but within the next 3 seasons.

I know you just like to argue. But that is not what I said. I said 'useful NHLer'

Then you basically went on to agree with me.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Applies to more than the Oilers, who are a bad example. F'rinstance:

2013 - top second rounder in points is Nick Petan with 18 (3 goals). No 20 goal scorers. None in 2012 either.

From 2011 only Rask, Saad, Jenner and Kucherov have had 20 goal seasons. And Kucherov did so 6 years after his draft. Rask did so 5 years later. Jenner got a30 in a big year but might not get 20 ever again.

Exactly.

The idea that 20 goals is a bar for a 2nd round pick is ludicrous.

A 20 goal scorer is a home run for a 2nd round pick.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I know you just like to argue. But that is not what I said. I said 'useful NHLer'

Then you basically went on to agree with me.

Career spare parts are still useful NHLers. Take a guy like Bouma or Stajan. Not worth 2nd round picks in a trade, but definitely still useful NHLers.

Then you basically went on to agree with me.

My post wasn't a response to your post specifically (I didn't even quote you).

[Enoch Root]

Whatever you say, Mr Semantics.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

[...]

YOu took my post to the extreme, which is simply brutal logic.

It's perfectly logical to show the flaw in a statement by following its logic to its absurd conclusion.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

It's perfectly logical to show the flaw in a statement by following its logic to its absurd conclusion.

It's perfectly illogical to try to show such a flaw by drawing an absurd and caricatured conclusion that the logic does not support.

It's quite logical to say that a 2nd-round pick has poor odds of becoming an NHL player, and therefore trading one for a young NHLer is a good bet if you can do it. This is to assess the value of the pick, and say that it is less than the value of that kind of player.

It is an illogical leap to say that the pick should always be traded away. Saying that X < Y does not entail that X = 0.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It's perfectly illogical to try to show such a flaw by drawing an absurd and caricatured conclusion that the logic does not support.

It's quite logical to say that a 2nd-round pick has poor odds of becoming an NHL player, and therefore trading one for a young NHLer is a good bet if you can do it. This is to assess the value of the pick, and say that it is less than the value of that kind of player.

It is an illogical leap to say that the pick should always be traded away. Saying that X < Y does not entail that X = 0.

A "useful NHLer" is always more valuable than a second round pick was the statement. Did I misread it?

[CalgaryFan1988]

I wonder what a team would look like if they traded their draft picks each year on NHLers, gradually upgrading their roster and flipping older players and picks for younger players.

It would be 2020 and my team wouldn't have any picks until 2030, might suck for the future GM, but my current team would be stacked.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

A "useful NHLer" is always more valuable than a second round pick was the statement. Did I misread it?

Yes.

[sa226]

I like the trade. The potential of Lazar I think is worth more than the potential of a 2nd round pick.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush! Or something like that.

If I had to make a prediction. I think the rest of this season for him is going to go much like his time in Ottawa. Its hard for a 22 year old to play catch up the whole year. But next year with a fresh start and a clean bill of health, he becomes an important part of the team.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes.

Look I understand that focusing on one statement like I did was kind of ####ty. It just feels like people have been devaluing the draft pick in order to defend the trade.

I recall this debate from the Darryl years when he was trading away picks and it's just that every time you trade away a pick you can justify it based on that same general argument. Personally I strongly believe in having a lot of tickets in drafts because eventually you hit on a player that changes the outlook of your team, so maybe I value the pick a bit more than others.

[Clarkey]

Wonder if he got mono from eating those hamburgers off the ice?

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Look I understand that focusing on one statement like I did was kind of ####ty. It just feels like people have been devaluing the draft pick in order to defend the trade.

I recall this debate from the Darryl years when he was trading away picks and it's just that every time you trade away a pick you can justify it based on that same general argument. Personally I strongly believe in having a lot of tickets in drafts because eventually you hit on a player that changes the outlook of your team, so maybe I value the pick a bit more than others.

I don't think people are devaluing the pick... I was just doing it to point out someone's brain dead black/white argument that Lazar has to become a 20 goal scorer for the trade to be a win.

I think people are valuing Lazar. It's a gamble, but he's a first round pedigree player with low cost, high upside, and a non-Yakupov attitude.

If your argument is that 2nd round picks can be used as currency to add to trades to acquire players then I agree with that too. The Flames have proven to use this strategy as well (ie. Dougie Hamilton).

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by sketchyt

I don't think people are devaluing the pick... I was just doing it to point out someone's brain dead black/white argument that Lazar has to become a 20 goal scorer for the trade to be a win.

I think people are valuing Lazar. It's a gamble, but he's a first round pedigree player with low cost, high upside, and a non-Yakupov attitude.

If your argument is that 2nd round picks can be used as currency to add to trades to acquire players then I agree with that too. The Flames have proven to use this strategy as well (ie. Dougie Hamilton).

I guess I haven't been convinced by the posters here and the talk about the value of the pick makes it sound worse for someone like me who doesn't know Lazar. And the word from Ottawa while encouraging in some ways still just sounds like the age-old argument about whether a prospect is a bust or just misused by the coach and the team. Usually it's the latter.

But for sure Flames actually values their picks and genuinely believe in Lazar. I don't doubt that.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

So much overreaction to this trade. A 2nd round pick for a young forward in need of a change of scenery and better line mates.

The same people would probably whine about the player we would have taken with that 2nd ala hunter smith or parsons.

I think most of the downers havent got an idea about the player. They just looked up his points total and started raging.

A lot of ottawa fans, myself included are upset about losing him for a 2nd and how he was (not) developed. The GM has stated this player is worth protecting and has a bright future with a lot of upside. His scouting reports all rave about his potential as a 2nd line 2 way gritty character player. Well known analysts have given the flames kudos on this deal for the fact it is low risk and potentially high reward.

Lazar is around Jankowskis age and has 170ish games in the NHL. He is as accomplished a WHL prospect as you can get. His offensive numbers in the pros are bad but he does everything else at a NHL level and if he can find his scoring touch he will be a great capture.
People hate what they dont know. And people dont know Curtis Lazar.

2nd round picks arent likely to ever play in the NHL. But people would rather roll the dice than take a stinky recclaimation project with a bad ppg on the 4th line. Thats what this is all about. It has nothing to do with the player or the trade. It just isnt sexy to most.

[StrykerSteve]

I can't wait for him to play so I can stop reading all of this inane chatter about these suddenly invaluable second round picks.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

Look I understand that focusing on one statement like I did was kind of ####ty. It just feels like people have been devaluing the draft pick in order to defend the trade.

I recall this debate from the Darryl years when he was trading away picks and it's just that every time you trade away a pick you can justify it based on that same general argument. Personally I strongly believe in having a lot of tickets in drafts because eventually you hit on a player that changes the outlook of your team, so maybe I value the pick a bit more than others.

I fully agree that picks are valuable.

But I think it is also important to not be blindly committed to a particular strategy. Even for a team ina rebuild that should be acquiring as many picks as possible, it is still entirely reasonalbe and sensible to use a pick to acquire an asset.

Especially when that asset is young, fills a need, and teh team is less than enamored with what they think is available with that pick in the upcoming draft.

[Calgary4LIfe]

The homegrown talent comes with more cost certainty. That makes them more valuable organizationally - at least typically in my opinion.

Originally Posted by FFFLife

I personally LOVE to say that... Why would you hate to say it unless you are a fan of another team...

Oh, I love heavy-hitting, pugilistic teams that make the opposing teams play with their faces glued to the boards, and who also dazzle you with brilliant skill. A.K.A. - 1989 Stanley Cup Champions.

I was referring to the use of the word 'truculent' specifically