The interesting thing to me there is the NPA numbers. It's tempting to split those down the middle, but that is a lot of voters, and just like in North Carolina it seems like NPA voters are generally not frequent voters, and disproportionately Latino.
I still think Florida will be close, but I also think Trump will be playing catchup on Tuesday, and will need massive margins in the panhandle, and needs to win the "I-4 Corridor" if he is going to offset what looks like a massive lead for Clinton in Dade and Broward counties.
Also: the fact that I know where all of those places are is a sign that Florida, and its ridiculous elections, are in the news too often.
One other point: one of the more superficial media narratives over the weekend has been the one about "African Americans aren't turning out to vote like they did in 2012", and how Clinton should be worried about this.
And it's true: African American turnout in early voting is down.... in North Carolina. It's steady, or up, everywhere else, including in Florida--where early voting by African Americans was over 717,000, compared to 539,000 in 2012.
Combined with record Latino turnout, my guess is that when the dust settles the electorate will be somewhat less white than it was in 2012, which would be in keeping with demographic trends.
One other point: one of the more superficial media narratives over the weekend has been the one about "African Americans aren't turning out to vote like they did in 2012", and how Clinton should be worried about this.
And it's true: African American turnout in early voting is down.... in North Carolina. It's steady, or up, everywhere else, including in Florida--where early voting by African Americans was over 717,000, compared to 539,000 in 2012.
Combined with record Latino turnout, my guess is that when the dust settles the electorate will be somewhat less white than it was in 2012, which would be in keeping with demographic trends.
I think a lot of that discrepancy in NC is that NC has spent 4 years limiting early voting on Sundays and closing early voting locations. I saw a stat earlier today somewhere (god only knows where at this point, I'm burned out from this election) where Sunday voting was huge for black communities, and limiting that is likely a big part of why the African American vote has been down in North Carolina.
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A last-minute look at some of the key swing states:
Florida: Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 2 (Quinnipiac)
North Carolina: Clinton 47, Trump 45, Johnson 3 (Quinnipiac)
North Carolina: Clinton 44, Trump 44 (Siena / NYT)
Ohio: Trump 46, Clinton 39, Johnson 7 (Emerson)
Ohio: Trump 43, Clinton 40, Johnson 8 (William and Mary)
New Hampshire: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5 (Emerson)
New Hampshire: Clinton 49, Trump 38, Johnson 6 (University of New Hampshire)
Nevada: Clinton 47, Trump 46, Johnson 4 (Emerson)
Virginia: Clinton 48, Trump 42 (Christopher Newport University)
Personally, I think if the margin in Virginia is that close it will be a long night for Clinton. I don't think Virginia is realistically in play.
I'd love to see one more high-quality pollster weigh in on Florida, but that doesn't seem likely at this point. It's all about turnout now.
One curiosity is that Trump is again looking comfortably ahead in Ohio, but Clinton's internals must suggest it's at least competitive, because she keeps going back there.
7 point swing to Trump since their last poll. Starting to look like North Carolina is going to Trump, which pretty much puts it all on Florida.
NC: Trump 44, Clinton 44, Johnson 3 (NYT/Sienna)
Not really. Trump still needs to turn Nevada and New Hamshire (or turn Colorado or PA).
Other NC polls this morning have Clinton up 7 and 2.
University of New Hampshire polls which tracked essentially daily were released this morning has Clinton up top consistently. As do a couple other New Hampshire polls just released.
NC is a fantastic example of voter suppression affecting election results. They ended Sunday Polls for early voting because Black Churches used to get people to the polling stations after mass.
The voter suppression activities in key states is the most likely reason that Trump would out perform his polling. It will be interesting to see how Hillary's ground game vs republican suppression plays out.
You guys obviously know what you're talking about, but I don't understand any of this. Based on what we are seeing right now, what are the odds Trump wins? I don't want any money in the markets if it looks like Trump's got a shot. Really not looking for the fanboy answer, either.
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You guys obviously know what you're talking about, but I don't understand any of this. Based on what we are seeing right now, what are the odds Trump wins? I don't want any money in the markets if it looks like Trump's got a shot. Really not looking for the fanboy answer, either.
Who knows for sure. Based on 538 and the betting markets, he has a somewhere between a 20-35% chance of winning the election.
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That's an interesting question and really depends on the following
- How likely do you think a polling error of 2-3 points is.
- How linked are states. IE does a 2 point polling error in Florida mean a 2 point polling error nationally.
- How effective are things like ground game at producing better results than polling.
The upshot site has a great summary of all of the aggregators and modellers forecasts by state.
I think though, that even in a Trump win situation you will see a large initial drop followed by a recovery similar to what happened to the markets around Brexit. So if Trump does win don't sell after the fact as you will be part of a panic sale. If anything if trump wins you should be buying all the way down.
So the odds forcasters range from a 65% chance of Hillary victory to a 99% chance of Hillary victory with the betting markets sitting somewhere at 80%.
