[Signing] Flames sign Jiri Hudler - 4 Years, $16 Million

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

just who in the blue hell is Kent Wilson, nothing more than a blogger. Kent Nilson quite the misleading header you have there.

I am just waiting for someone to pop up and say "I am Kent Wilson" like when I questioned the tweet that happened to be from Freeway who also writes for FlamesNation

[Hells Bells]

Originally Posted by moon

I would rather pay neither guy the overpriced contracts but if I had to go with one I would rather overpay Doan who can make a difference on a team than overpay for a meh Hudler.

I'd rather overpay Hudler by a million than Doan by three million.

Also, Doan isn't a difference maker anymore. Those days are gone.

[bubbsy]

i'm very curious on how hudler looks outside of detroit.

I think he will quickly show whether he's a true talent and his career takes off a bit in CGY given much more of the offensive responsibility, or he will show that his success thus far was due to the strong linemates and system of DET.

I'll have to wait to see him play before trying to guess which way it will go.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Hes already played outside of Detroit. He put up 54 points in the KHL in 09-10.

Other KHL comparables from the 09-10 season that Flames fans may recognize:

Alexei Yashin - 64 pts (his last season as an elite talent)
Alexander Radulov - 63 pts (yeah, that guy)
Jaromir Jagr - 46 pts (who never matched Hudler's 54 pts in a KHL season)
Sergei Fedorov - 29 pts (his first season back in Russia after leaving the NHL)
Chris Simon - 25 pts (Simon found his mojo again in Russia)
Oleg Saprykin - 14 pts (Most. Inconsistent. Player. Ever.)

For interest's sake:
Roman Cervenka had 61 pts the following season, which was his KHL rookie year.

The long and the short of it is that Hudler still produced when he left the Wings. He didn't crash and burn when relied on as a primary scorer, he performed like a top-6 NHL player should perform in the KHL (ie was a league leader, finished top-10 in pts).

[Poe969]

Khl stats really mean nothing though

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Khl stats really mean nothing though

Thats funny, because I've gone over the stats of every single player who has played in both the NHL and KHL to compile an equivalency table.

And KHL stats are an extremely reliable predictor of NHL performance (and vice versa). A player will score approximately the same number of pts in a KHL season as in an NHL season. There is very little variation in this.

For predicting future NHL production, KHL stats are essentially as useful as NHL stats are.

[bubbsy]

fair enough, i haven't done any type of research as you have so not fair to question.

That being said i'd be downright shocked, and estatic of course, should hudler and/or cervanka hit 55+ points each on the flames this year.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Thats funny, because I've gone over the stats of every single player who has played in both the NHL and KHL to compile an equivalency table.

And KHL stats are an extremely reliable predictor of NHL performance (and vice versa). A player will score approximately the same number of pts in a KHL season as in an NHL season. There is very little variation in this.

For predicting future NHL production, KHL stats are essentially as useful as NHL stats are.

I'd love to see that. Do you have a graph or link? (If it's possible, I'd love to see an NHL points vs KHL points graph)

I'm not questioning you, I'm actually curious. If this is true, then it might be worth looking at it to determine Cervenka's effectiveness as well and what to expect from him.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Thats funny, because I've gone over the stats of every single player who has played in both the NHL and KHL to compile an equivalency table.

And KHL stats are an extremely reliable predictor of NHL performance (and vice versa). A player will score approximately the same number of pts in a KHL season as in an NHL season. There is very little variation in this.

For predicting future NHL production, KHL stats are essentially as useful as NHL stats are.

very interested to see how hudler and cervenka perform under hartley in an offense first system. Could be that the flames acquired 2 major weapons without expending any assets at all.
Cervenka 61pts in his rookie year, serious talent.

[Muta]

I'm going to go against Kent Wilson and say that Hudler thrives under greater pressure and puts up 60 points here, while countryman Roman Cervenka puts up 45. These two play on the same line for most of the year, with Glencross as their winger. This gives Tanguay / Cammy / Iginla more breathing room to play a less pressured game, and as a result they all put up impressive point totals.

Optimism is a hell of a lot more fun to look forward to, especially since it's all unproven at this point in time.

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

And KHL stats are an extremely reliable predictor of NHL performance (and vice versa).

This is generally true but there are pretty big error bars, obviously, as there is no way to predict with "extreme" reliability the transition from one league's game to another.

A player will score approximately the same number of pts in a KHL season as in an NHL season. There is very little variation in this.

This is not true at all. There are a dozen statshounds who have done this project on an ongoing basis for years, and it is widely known that the KHL's NHLE (equivalency) number is 0.83. In other words, unless you're saying a 17% spread is "approximately the same", no, they won't. They will score approximately 83% of their KHL rate in the NHL. Now, that is still the highest NHLE number out there, but it isn't a straight across translation. For reference, Hudler's 54 points translate to 45.

NHLE numbers for every major league via Gabe Desjardins / BTN:
KHL (0.83)
SEL (0.78)
CZE (0.74)
FNL (0.54)
DEL (0.52)
AHL (0.44)
NLA (0.43)
NCAA (0.41)
WHL (0.30)
OHL (0.30)
QMJHL (0.28
USHL (0.27)
AJHL (0.16)
BCHL (0.14)

The ECHL has no number because there isn't enough of a sample of graduates.

[Poe969]

The thing about predicting stats is that there are far too many variables. In the KHL, Hudler was playing against a lot of goalies and defensmen who aren't NHL quality. The style of play in the NHL is different then the KHL, heck the style of play differs from team to team in the NHL. The quality of line mates has a lot to do with the stats, the minutes they play (both quantity and quality) is going to have a huge part to play in their point outcome.... There are just too many things to consider.

When the Flames picked up JayBow they expected him to be a high point offensive defensman because of what he did with the Panthers in the NHL. That didn't work out.

If you look at Nash going to the rangers its probably going to be the same kind of thing. I doubt (and hope) Nash does poorly on the rangers.

There are just too many factors to consider. The Flames haven't been a playoff team for a few years because their players haven't been great, I would love if Hudler came in and made everyone around him better but I doubt he will.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Muta

I'm going to go against Kent Wilson and say that Hudler thrives under greater pressure and puts up 60 points here, while countryman Roman Cervenka puts up 45. These two play on the same line for most of the year, with Glencross as their winger. This gives Tanguay / Cammy / Iginla more breathing room to play a less pressured game, and as a result they all put up impressive point totals.

Optimism is a hell of a lot more fun to look forward to, especially since it's all unproven at this point in time.

Does anyone know what cammy's stats are like when playing center? I'm sure its a very small sample size but I'm having a tough time believing he's capable of holding down that position effectively for the flames. Especially in a top line role.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

Does anyone know what cammy's stats are like when playing center? I'm sure its a very small sample size but I'm having a tough time believing he's capable of holding down that position effectively for the flames. Especially in a top line role.

As a center;
17 points in his final 18 games of the season in Calgary.
168 points in 133 games in the AHL.
130 Points in 109 games at the NCAA level.

I don't think we should question his ability to produce at center ice, but more so if he can fulfill the defensive responsibilities of the position at the highest level. Knowing the type of person and athlete he is, I am not all that worried.

Personally, I think he will do just fine if given the proper amount of time to fully adjust to the position.

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

As a center;
17 points in his final 18 games of the season in Calgary.
168 points in 133 games in the AHL.
130 Points in 109 games at the NCAA level.

I don't think we should question his ability to produce at center ice, but more so if he can fulfill the defensive responsibilities of the position at the highest level. Knowing the type of person and athlete he is, I am not all that worried.

Personally, I think he will do just fine if given the proper amount of time to fully adjust to the position.

Those stats excite me.

[united]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

This is not true at all. There are a dozen statshounds who have done this project on an ongoing basis for years, and it is widely known that the KHL's NHLE (equivalency) number is 0.83. In other words, unless you're saying a 17% spread is "approximately the same", no, they won't. They will score approximately 83% of their KHL rate in the NHL. Now, that is still the highest NHLE number out there, but it isn't a straight across translation. For reference, Hudler's 54 points translate to 45.

NHLE numbers for every major league via Gabe Desjardins / BTN:
KHL (0.83)

I thought NHLE was based on points per game so 54 doesn't translate directly to 45. Also I think 0.83 is outdated as it's pretty high.

[AR_Six]

Originally Posted by united

I thought NHLE was based on points per game so 54 doesn't translate directly to 45. Also I think 0.83 is outdated as it's pretty high.

You're right. I was going to add that the most recent comparisons have suggested that NHLE from the KHL is actually around .7 but didn't feel the need to complicate the issue further. It's CERTAINLY not a 1 to 1, is the point.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by AR_Six

This is generally true but there are pretty big error bars, obviously, as there is no way to predict with "extreme" reliability the transition from one league's game to another.

My point was that the error bars are actually very small. I'm still working on the best method to define them, but the number are a *lot* more consistent than I would have expected.

This is not true at all. There are a dozen statshounds who have done this project on an ongoing basis for years, and it is widely known that the KHL's NHLE (equivalency) number is 0.83. In other words, unless you're saying a 17% spread is "approximately the same", no, they won't. They will score approximately 83% of their KHL rate in the NHL. Now, that is still the highest NHLE number out there, but it isn't a straight across translation. For reference, Hudler's 54 points translate to 45.

NHLE numbers for every major league via Gabe Desjardins / BTN:
KHL (0.83)
SEL (0.78)
CZE (0.74)
FNL (0.54)
DEL (0.52)
AHL (0.44)
NLA (0.43)
NCAA (0.41)
WHL (0.30)
OHL (0.30)
QMJHL (0.28
USHL (0.27)
AJHL (0.16)
BCHL (0.14)

The ECHL has no number because there isn't enough of a sample of graduates.

I said, very clearly, *per season*. Which I think is a better indicator than per game (for various reasons). Taking an average KHL season of 54 games, that gives an NHLE for the KHL of about .65

I'd love to see that. Do you have a graph or link? (If it's possible, I'd love to see an NHL points vs KHL points graph)

I'm still working on this. Mostly those pesky 'error bars' as mentioned above.

I'll probably submit it as an article somewhere this summer when I'm finished.

[puckluck2]

Had a talk with a buddy who's been a die hard Redwings fan for 25 years yesterday and he told me Hudler is pretty lazy and weak on the puck. Positives was a very good pass and a good quick release. He was hoping the Wings wouldn't re-sign him so that little scouting report has made me second guess this decision a little bit.

Kind of reminds me of the way Glencross used to play so hopefully Hudler finds his game and adjusts it here in Calgary the same way Glencross changed his game.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by Iginla

Had a talk with a buddy who's been a die hard Redwings fan for 25 years yesterday and he told me Hudler is pretty lazy and weak on the puck. Positives was a very good pass and a good quick release. He was hoping the Wings wouldn't re-sign him so that little scouting report has made me second guess this decision a little bit.

Kind of reminds me of the way Glencross used to play so hopefully Hudler finds his game and adjusts it here in Calgary the same way Glencross changed his game.

Initially I was very happy with the signing but I've tempered my expectations lately. Hopefully we're all pleasantly surprised when the puck drops.