Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Cowboy89]

http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/b...y-at-work.aspx

This article might be a couple of weeks old, but it really illustrates what's going to happen in Canadian Real Estate in the next little while. Refreshing to see an honest look at RE fundamentals in the press. Typically it's just the local paper spouting verbatum what the local real estate board (Who have a vested interest in ever increasing prices) press releases.

[Clarkey]

Originally Posted by macker

Could be. But one of these years it is going to get really really cold. We have been very lucky so far and the next 3-5 years I am sure this luck will change. Everyone always talks about interest rates but house affordability has many inputs. http://www.energyshop.com/es/homes/g...ceforecast.cfm
Watch the futures market and especially the volume.

Or, a really hot summer.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Wookie

Sorry, I might be missing your point. But high NG prices? Causing a problem in Calgary housing? Aren't high NG/oil prices -> a lot of cash -> speculation what got housing to it's current pricing?

I thought the income and earnings and jobs from high energy prices is what got Calgary booming? I'm sure (most) people could offset the increase in heating

Some people are naturally hedged depending on the sector they are working in. NG prices is a broad term and although Oil prices have firmed up Natural Gas prices are still historically low. It will take Natural gas prices at $12 to $14 to see my point. Take your Enmax/Direct Energy bill and tripple it. Some people won't be able to offset this increase as they are already tapped out as they over extended to buy into the "booming Calgary market....I hear people complaining about the cost of groceries in this city so I am sure they would be in shock if nat gas were to revert back to its mean....

[red sky]

Originally Posted by macker

Some people are naturally hedged depending on the sector they are working in. NG prices is a broad term and although Oil prices have firmed up Natural Gas prices are still historically low. It will take Natural gas prices at $12 to $14 to see my point. Take your Enmax/Direct Energy bill and tripple it. Some people won't be able to offset this increase as they are already tapped out as they over extended to buy into the "booming Calgary market....I hear people complaining about the cost of groceries in this city so I am sure they would be in shock if nat gas were to revert back to its mean....

Well if you are bullish on Natural Gas you can always buy:

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AHNU

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by red sky

Well if you are bullish on Natural Gas you can always buy:

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AHNU

Wow, that looks painful from July 2008 . . .

[Sylvanfan]

Couldn't you also lock in your natural gas rate on long term contract if you were really that at risk where a $150 a month increase for 4 months was going to drive you into financial ruin?

[macker]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Couldn't you also lock in your natural gas rate on long term contract if you were really that at risk where a $150 a month increase for 4 months was going to drive you into financial ruin?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle1538686/
Henry Groppe is betting on higher natural gas prices.

It is similar to how a mortgage works and like comparing a variable rate to a fixed rate. Most natural gas marketers offer 3 year, 5 year or blended rates. Once you select your term your fixed rate will not change for the term you have selected. $12 natural gas would be much more then $150 per month. Couple this with rising interest rates and increasing inflation and real estate values are impacted. I wouldn't count on the government to fire up the natual gas rebate program again if prices increase.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by macker

$12 natural gas would be much more then $150 per month. Couple this with rising interest rates and increasing inflation and real estate values are impacted.

Yeah, but than pretty good percentage of the population is ruined in that scenario. How many people really benefit when the cost of everything goes up, their wages go down, and every asset they own that isn't Natural Gas futures decreases in value?

Are you advocating that I should put everything I own into Natural Gas futures?

[cmyden]

Month end SFH inventory will finish at 5,000+ for April. It peaked at 4,369 in 2009.

May could be an interesting month to watch. If the inventory continues to grow at this pace and we do indeed hit 6,000+ in May, that's when things could get interesting (last occurred in July of 2008).

But if 5,000ish is the peak, then it could just be blah.

Sales are down slightly from March, looks like they will finish April at around 1,340 for SFH (1,396 for March). The pending median price has been dropping fairly significantly as of late ($409k), but April will finish at $416k, just $7k down from March.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by cmyden

May could be an interesting month to watch. If the inventory continues to grow at this pace and we do indeed hit 6,000+ in May, that's when things could get interesting (last occurred in July of 2008).

*Fingers crossed*

Man a 10%, or hell 20% drop, would do wonders for me buying the place I want where I want it!

[chemgear]

Hmm mortgage fraud in Calgary/Alberta:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/sto...raud-bank.html

Anybody a "straw buyer"?

EDIT: looks like this tidbit has it's own thread already!

[Methanolic]

Weird to see this in my neighbourhood.


This house Here

vs

This House Here



One is a _ _ _ _ & the other is not, yet they are at the same asking price?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Heck, even realtors are being forced to acknowledge that prices will probably ease, though not crash down. Previously it was prices will always go UP, UP, UP! Market fundamentals show NO bubble. Buy now or be priced out forever omgomgomgomg! (Kinda like the Lord Marshal in Riddick - "CONVERT NOW - OR FALL FOREVER!")

Seems like there is more and more talk in the mainstream media about real estate these days. Though watching realtors squirming while being interviewed about the issue is always popcorn worthy, hehe.

This is total BS, did a Realtor steel your girlfriend or something?
I can't say I know a single Realtor who has ever said prices will always go up.
Where were you when the market was low and starting to go up? Hiding well away from these discussions because you're the guy always yelling "bubble!", "don't buy Real Estate!!"

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

This is total BS, did a Realtor steel your girlfriend or something?
I can't say I know a single Realtor who has ever said prices will always go up.
Where were you when the market was low and starting to go up? Hiding well away from these discussions because you're the guy always yelling "bubble!", "don't buy Real Estate!!"

Regardless every realtor I've ever met or spoke with always claims it's a great time to buy. It's not always a great time to buy....

But at the end of the day it shouldn't be surprising, they are trying to sell and earn commission. When you buy a car the salesman isn't going to tell you not to buy.......

[Claeren]

Looking at MLS right now is insane, soooo many listings.... and most people I know in town (who are generally well off) already own at least 2 homes. Something has to give....



Claeren.

[Pinner]

Originally Posted by fotze

If you are selling and buying, then what does it matter if the market is going up or down. Both houses are on the same general trajectory, you hop off one and on to another.

Exactly, people are so concerned how much their house is worth but it really makes no difference unless your getting into or out of the market.

[Wookie]

CALGARY - Average sale prices for existing homes in Alberta are forecast to rise by four per cent this year and another 0.6 per cent in 2011, says a report released today by TD Bank Financial Group.



Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz0n4CkBcLp

0.6%?

What an odd number. Why bother even predicting. $2,500 here and there.

[Clarkey]

Originally Posted by Methanolic

Weird to see this in my neighbourhood.


This house Here

vs

This House Here



One is a _ _ _ _ & the other is not, yet they are at the same asking price?

What do you mean by the last sentence?

They both look like decent little homes for that price range, I don't know much about that area though.

[Tron_fdc]

Kinda odd, but I took a quick look at rental rates yesterday and it seemed to me like they were really high? I own a 3BR house in Bankview (built in 2004) and it looked like I can rent the thing for almost 4k a month???? WTF, that's almost double what I pay in my mortgage.

I'm tempted to go buy another smaller house and rent out the one I'm in.

[cmyden]

Originally Posted by Claeren

Looking at MLS right now is insane, soooo many listings.... and most people I know in town (who are generally well off) already own at least 2 homes. Something has to give....



Claeren.

Inventory has certainly surpassed the peak of 2009, but still pales in comparison to May of 2008 when the month ended with over 7,000 SFH on the market and we started seeing $10-$20k monthly price drops between May and the end of the year.

Of course, we also saw massive price drops between July '07 and the end of the year, and inventory only peaked at 5,500 that year.

Right now we sit at 5,076 SFH, and the question becomes whether or not inventory continues to pile up at the pace it did in March/April.

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listings?p...=127&pageId=19

^^^ good place to keep an eye on this sort of thing. Stats are about as real-time as they get, updated nearly every day.


http://edmontonhousingbust.com/2010/...bers-are-in-2/

^^^ latest post from Kevin's blog. Edmonton's inventory is behaving pretty much the same as ours.

The shadow inventory is returning, and fast. It’ll be interesting to see when inventory peaks this year… in ‘07 it wasn’t until September, but in ‘08 was May and these were the only other times we’ve seen activity in this range before. I’m getting the feeling we’ll split the difference and it’ll be June/July, but if sellers really get scared it could drag out.